Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 -1.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.8 -1.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 125.9 -1.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 -1.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.5 +13.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.4 -.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.8 +1.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(170 of 500 reporting) +15.0% -2.5 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.19 +1.91: Growth Rate +17.4% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.96% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 10 reporting) +18.6% -2.3 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 496.24 +3.34: Growth Rate +20.8% +.8 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 70.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 167.3 -2.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.5% +.5 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% -1.2 percentage points
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.27% +4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.29 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 74.3% (+3.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 47.0%(-3.3 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,315 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +69 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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