Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.6 +2.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 +3.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.04 +8.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.8 -1.3%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 128.7 +1.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 +.6
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +1.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.3 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.1 +2.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(427 of 500 reporting) +12.4% +.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.27 +.78: Growth Rate +19.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.49% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 507.37 +1.70: Growth Rate +23.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 27.9 -.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 58.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 167.8 -.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.2% -.3 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% +10.0 basis points
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.03% -6.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.58 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 82.1% (-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 46.7%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -55 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +118 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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