Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Transport/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.4 +.5%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .17 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.07 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.4 -.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 125.8 -.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.5 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.3 -1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(377 of 500 reporting) +12.1% -.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.93 +.71:  Growth Rate +18.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.40% -8.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 504.64 +1.56: Growth Rate +22.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 28.1 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -15.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 61.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.4 -1.8% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.5% -.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.05% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.34 -2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (+4.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 50.0%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +550 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/transport/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long