Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian described the Friday nuclear talks with Washington as “a step forward,” even as he pushed back against any attempts at intimidation. 
• Japan’s top currency official said the government remains on high alert as it monitors the foreign exchange market following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic victory in Sunday’s snap election.
• Italy faced widespread rail disruption on first day of the Winter Olympics, with the country’s transport minister saying it was an attack on the nation.
• Samsung’s shares climbed as much as 6.4% after a report that the company will soon begin mass production of HBM4 memory chips, used as part of the buildout for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
• YouTube is about to start selling cheaper TV bundles for sports fans and news junkies. The sports-only bundle will cost $65 a month – a 22% discount from regular YouTube TV. 
• Keir Starmer’s future is the balance after a crisis over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington claimed the UK prime minister’s closest aide.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats are insisting on their full list of demands to reform ICE before agreeing to funding for the Department of Homeland Security.  
• Apple is preparing to kick off its 2026 product blitz with an iPhone 17e, new iPads, Macs and more, @markgurman writes in this week’s Power On. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge

• *JAPAN'S NIKKEI INDEX RISES 5.1% TO 56,999.60. 
• Khanna letter to Comer ahead of virtual Maxwell deposition tomorrow: Dear Chairman Comer, It is my understanding that Ms. Ghislaine Maxwell intends to invoke her Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination and decline to answer all substantive questions at her upcoming deposition before the House Oversight Committee. This position appears inconsistent with Ms. Maxwell’s prior conduct, as she did not invoke the Fifth Amendment when she previously met with Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche to discuss substantially similar subject matter. I understand that Ms. Maxwell intends to assert this privilege on a “blanket basis” by reading a prepared statement at the outset of the deposition and refusing to permit Members to question her individually through counsel, rather than invoking the privilege on a question-by-question basis. 
• Trump Lifts Biden-Era Restrictions On Commercial Fishing In Atlantic Marine Monument.
• Morgan Stanley: Most Indicators Linked To Global Growth Are Moving "Up And To The Right".
• America's Record Health Spending Explained In 5 Charts.
• ICE Urges Newsom Not To Release 33,179 Criminal Illegal Immigrants Into Communities.
• There is nothing more hated in the market, than Software. (graph)
• Net exposure:    
• NIH Allocates $10 Million For Research In East Palestine Three Years After Toxic Train Crash.
• Sell (Or Buy) America? Goldman Traders Lay Out The Best Trades Across FX, Rates, & Commodities.
• ICYMI: last week saw the biggest shorting on record, according to Goldman Prime Brokerage. The bank also correctly called Friday's bounce in Software and most shorted names which have started a major covering squeeze.   
• US tech stocks have already seen a significant de-rating, with forward PEG ratios now trading near 5-year lows.
• David Sacks Exposes New York Times For Shielding Reid Hoffman In Epstein Files.
• Nearly 2,000 Truckers Deemed Unfit Are Removed From American Roads.
• Pentagon To Cut Academic Ties With Harvard, Hegseth Says.
• Humanoid Robots Get "Brains" As Dual-Use Fears Mount.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Watch Japan's yen and government bond yields as Takaichi storms to an election victory. 
• Japan stocks set to soar after Takaichi secures historic mandate.
• Stock futures tick higher as Wall Street awaits closely watched jobs, inflation reports: Live updates.
• Hong Kong media baron and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years in prison. 
• Federal judge orders Fulton County Georgia election case documents unsealed by Tuesday.
• Hims & Hers pulls copycat weight-loss pill after threats of legal action.

• @Barron's 

• Had bullish commentary on (CAT) and (OKTA).

• @TheTranscript

• Another great earnings week. (table)

• @GuntherEagleman

• Pass the SAVE AMERICA ACT or nothing else matters.

• @911NewsBreaks

• BREAKING: Trump DEMANDS congress pass the Save America Act. "America’s Elections are Rigged, Stolen, and a Laughingstock all over the World. We are either going to fix them, or we won’t have a Country any longer." (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +1.25% to +3.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -2.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.
• Gold 5,039.4 USD/t oz. +1.2% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 -.01%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.26 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.5 +1.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.56% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 -2.7%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.
• S&P 500 futures +.12%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.