Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.8 -1.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.05 +4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 124.6 -1.4%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 -.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.7 +.7 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.6 -1.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.1 +4.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(295 of 500 reporting) +8.3% -6.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.58 +.39: Growth Rate +18.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.0 +.5
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -13.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% -2.3 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 500.85 +1.57: Growth Rate +21.9% +.4 percentage point, P/E 29.8 +.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 71.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 170.79 +1.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.7% +.5 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.41 +8.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 63.5% (-2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 50.3%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +920 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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