Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 +2.4%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.1 +1.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 128.56 +1.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.0 -.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.0 -15.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.9 +11.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +.4 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(273 of 500 reporting) +14.4% +.5 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.19 +.01: Growth Rate +17.8% unch., P/E 21.5 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.71% -10.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +21.4% +2.5 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 499.28 +.49: Growth Rate +21.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 -3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 73.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 166.8 -.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.2% +1.9 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% -8.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.33 -7.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 58.1% (-17.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 49.3%(+3,4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +230 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -92 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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