Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Sector Rotation, Crypto Plunge, Technical Selling, Tech/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.8 +2.2%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .18 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.2 +.6%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 127.3 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 -.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.4 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.1 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.1 -.7 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(193 of 500 reporting) +14.8% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.89 +.70:  Growth Rate +17.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.93% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +18.9% +.3 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 496.84 +.60: Growth Rate +20.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.4 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 70.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.8 +2.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% -1.5 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.27% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.37 +7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 76.0% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 45.9%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -895 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long