Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Sector Rotation, Escalating Iran Tensions, Crypto Plunge, Tech/Defense Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.9 +.6%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 +.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.9 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.3 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.9 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 +.5 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(235 of 500 reporting) +13.9% -.9 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.18 +.29:  Growth Rate +17.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.81% -12.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +18.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 498.79 +1.95: Growth Rate +21.4% +.5 percentage point, P/E 29.6 -.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 -9.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 71.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.3 -2.1% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.3% +.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.40 +3.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 75.1% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 46.5%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +243 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long