Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Less Economic/Earnings Outlook Optimism, Crypto Weakness, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.4 +2.0%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.3 +.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.5 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.8 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.7 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(356 of 500 reporting) +12.5% -.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.22 +.28:  Growth Rate +18.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.48% -4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 503.08 +.90: Growth Rate +22.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.4 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 63.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.5 -1.8% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.1% -.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.43 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 49.0%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +620 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/transport sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long