Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Less AI Industry Disruption Angst, Stable Long-Term Rates, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.8 +.8%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.4 +1.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 129.1 +.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.3 +1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.9 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.3 +1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(439 of 500 reporting) +11.9% -.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.63 +.36:  Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.53% +4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.59 +1.22: Growth Rate +23.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 27.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 -13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 57.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 170.6 +1.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.3% +1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.03% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.58 unch.

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 83.8% (+3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 48.9%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +670 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/transport/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long