Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.4 +.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 -6.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 +.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 125.5 +.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -4.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.5 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.6 +.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(317 of 500 reporting) +13.2% +4.9 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.65 +.07: Growth Rate +18.0% unch., P/E 21.9 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 501.48 +.63: Growth Rate +22.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.6 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 69.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 170.1 -.4%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.7% +1.0 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% -.5 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -6.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.39 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 58.8% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 49.1%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +430 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/transport sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Took profits in some financial sector longs and added transport sector longs
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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