Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.3 -.4%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.12 -1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 +1.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 125.5 -.01%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -.4
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.5 +4.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(333 of 500 reporting) +13.0% -.2 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.94 +.29: Growth Rate +18.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.52% -6.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 502.18 +.70: Growth Rate +22.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.0 -.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 -5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 66.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.6 +.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.8% +.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +3.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.43 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 78.5% (+20.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 48.1%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +620 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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