S&P 500 1,142 +.12%
NASDAQ 2,009.86 +.12%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.74%
Homebuilders +1.26%
Telecom +1.25%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -.78%
I-Banks -.79%
Fashion -1.51%
Other
Crude Oil 34.49 +.29%
Natural Gas 5.12 -.23%
Gold 404.10 +1.20%
Base Metals 111.25 +.99%
U.S. Dollar 86.14 -.89%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.02% -.48%
VIX 15.96 -2.03%
Put/Call .72 +18.03%
NYSE Arms 1.10 -9.8%
Market Movers
NFLX -11.45% on lowered guidance due to higher marketing costs associated with subscriber growth.
CPN -9.4% on cancellation of $2.3B offering. It will explore different options to address debt payment due in November that could result in bankruptcy.
MOSY +85.9% on SNPS buyout. SNPS -14.95%.
KCI +32.0% on strong demand for I.P.O.
ZRAN +13.6% after meeting 4Q estimates and raising 1Q sales guidance.
GDT +7.58% after obtaining the rights to co-promote JNJ's drug-coated stent.
SEE +6.07% on upgrade from CSFB to "Outperform."
ODSY -27.3% after lowering 1Q guidance.
Economic Data
Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in at 87.3 vs. expectations of 92.0.
Recommendations
Accenture CFO, giving the keynote dinner comments at the Goldman Sachs Tech conference yesterday, indicated that his software project pipeline was at a 3-yr. high. GS is recommending VRTS, says estimates are conservative for 04 and reiterates $37 target. GS says communications semi biz is fast improving on the back of carrier capex that looks to be up in 04 and that high foundry utilization is causing lead times to increase and wafer costs to be very firm. GS likes small-cap Oil & Gas E&P companies, KWK and TBI. TheStreet.com is reporting that the SG Cowen biotech team thinks that Genentech's(DNA) new cancer drug, Avastin, will significantly beat expectations after FDA approval in March. James Creamer of TheStreet.com is buying NT here as he thinks tech selling is overdone. Citi Smith Barney initiating WTW with a "Buy" and $46 target ahead of earnings release tonight. Citi is adding WC to focus list, replacing KELYA. BSX raised to "Buy" at UBS. ZRAN raised to "Sector Outperform" at CIBC. ELBO, GME raised to "Buy" at Bank of America. VZ, AWE raised to "Overweight" at Morgan Stanley, PCS, NXTL, FON and T cut to "Underweight." OATS cut to "Sell" at Merrill, GDT raised to "Buy."
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed in mid-day trading, as a muted rebound in tech and a strong healthcare sector are offset by weakness in industirals. Attempts to stop U.S. jobs from going to other countries may raise a debate in Congress over the entire concept of free trade, South Carolina Democratic Congressman told CNBC. Fidelity Investments almost tripled sales last year after it cut prices, added funds and won customers fleeing firms sued by regulators for illegal trading. The E.U. halted imports of U.S. birds and eggs after Texas flu cases discovered. CIA director George Tenet says the U.S. faces "a heightened risk of poison attacks" from al-Qaeda.
BOTTOM LINE: The bounce I was expecting in technology occurred, but was rather weak. Thus, I have not added any new longs. The Portfolio is still 20% net long. I will closely monitor late-day action for any signs of strength. The consumer confidence number's weakness is a result of politics and I believe it will start improving again in the near future.
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
Tuesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
VOXX/.14
CCU/.32
ESRX/.85
FD/2.26
FOSL/.55
HRB/.45
HD/.39
IM/.23
OATS/.07
Splits
ACAM 5-for-1
Economic Data
Conference Board Consumer Confidence estimated at 92.0 vs. 96.8 last month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs raised estimates for COH and made positive comments. GS also saying that defense stocks are overreacting to the Comanche cancellation. Goldman says tone from 1st day of its tech conference is broadly positive. GS saying VZ is their favorite RBOC and SBC is attractive with a yield of 5.2%. SAP CEO says quarter is tracking to plan. GS says CSCO, JNPR, NT, MOT, CIEN, TLAB and SONS all speak tomorrow. Finally, Goldman expects crude oil to trade down to the mid-$20/bbl range this summer as record levels of production and seasonal declines in demand lead to faster-than-normal stock builds. TheStreet.com is saying AMCC may enter Host Bus Adapter market, hurting EMLX and QLGC.
Late-Night News
Pakistan called on the intl. peacekeeping force in Afghanistan to help secure the border area and stop the movement of suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters, AFP reported. John Varley, CEO of Barclays Plc, says recent merger activity in the U.S. was a "wake up call" for Barclays and other banks to work to keep their place in the market, the Financial Times said. Sony and Sanyo are raising prices on cell-phone batteries due to higher cobalt costs. Taiwan's United Microelectronics is raising prices of semiconductors because production cannot meet demand. Lehman Brothers and Xinhua Financial Network will team up to produce an index tracking the performance of China's domestic bonds. Chickens on a farm in Texas tested positive for a more virulent form of bird flu than was reported last week and are the first such U.S. cases in about 2 decades. MSFT has secured a deal with RSA Security to allow Windows users to access its secure network systems. FleetBoston may be sued as soon as today by regulators for alleged trading abuses in its mutual fund unit.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mostly down, ranging from -.75% to -1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I will likely add a couple of longs on any weakness in the morning as I believe the major averages are due for an oversold bounce, especially technology. The Portfolio is 20% net long currently. Consumer cyclicals should continue to outperform ahead of tax stimulus, better employment and relatively low interest rates. While I expect the averages to bounce, my indicators are still on short-term sell signals. The current consolidation will likely resume later in the week or next week.
Company/Estimate
VOXX/.14
CCU/.32
ESRX/.85
FD/2.26
FOSL/.55
HRB/.45
HD/.39
IM/.23
OATS/.07
Splits
ACAM 5-for-1
Economic Data
Conference Board Consumer Confidence estimated at 92.0 vs. 96.8 last month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs raised estimates for COH and made positive comments. GS also saying that defense stocks are overreacting to the Comanche cancellation. Goldman says tone from 1st day of its tech conference is broadly positive. GS saying VZ is their favorite RBOC and SBC is attractive with a yield of 5.2%. SAP CEO says quarter is tracking to plan. GS says CSCO, JNPR, NT, MOT, CIEN, TLAB and SONS all speak tomorrow. Finally, Goldman expects crude oil to trade down to the mid-$20/bbl range this summer as record levels of production and seasonal declines in demand lead to faster-than-normal stock builds. TheStreet.com is saying AMCC may enter Host Bus Adapter market, hurting EMLX and QLGC.
Late-Night News
Pakistan called on the intl. peacekeeping force in Afghanistan to help secure the border area and stop the movement of suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters, AFP reported. John Varley, CEO of Barclays Plc, says recent merger activity in the U.S. was a "wake up call" for Barclays and other banks to work to keep their place in the market, the Financial Times said. Sony and Sanyo are raising prices on cell-phone batteries due to higher cobalt costs. Taiwan's United Microelectronics is raising prices of semiconductors because production cannot meet demand. Lehman Brothers and Xinhua Financial Network will team up to produce an index tracking the performance of China's domestic bonds. Chickens on a farm in Texas tested positive for a more virulent form of bird flu than was reported last week and are the first such U.S. cases in about 2 decades. MSFT has secured a deal with RSA Security to allow Windows users to access its secure network systems. FleetBoston may be sued as soon as today by regulators for alleged trading abuses in its mutual fund unit.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mostly down, ranging from -.75% to -1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I will likely add a couple of longs on any weakness in the morning as I believe the major averages are due for an oversold bounce, especially technology. The Portfolio is 20% net long currently. Consumer cyclicals should continue to outperform ahead of tax stimulus, better employment and relatively low interest rates. While I expect the averages to bounce, my indicators are still on short-term sell signals. The current consolidation will likely resume later in the week or next week.
Monday, February 23, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,140.99 -.27%
NASDAQ 2,007.52 -1.49%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +.78%
Energy +.6%
Restaurants +.58%
Lagging Sectors
Broadcasting -2.23%
Semis -2.74%
Disk Drives -3.27%
Other
Crude Oil 34.40 +.15%
Natural Gas 5.14 +.16%
Gold 399.00 -.08%
Base Metals 110.16 -1.66%
U.S. Dollar 86.94 -.34%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.03% -1.51%
VIX 16.29 +1.56%
Put/Call .61 -29.07%
NYSE Arms 1.22 -18.12%
After-hours Movers
NOVL +3.48% after reporting in-line 1Q and slight revenue shortfall.
ZRAN +5.6% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
SNPS -10.1% after beating 1Q estimates, but lowering 04 guidance and announcing 2 acquisitions.
ODSY -13.0% after meeting 4Q estimates, but lowering 04 guidance.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell for the 4th straight day on light volume, led by computer related companies as investors shifted out of last year's best performers and into consumer cyclicals. After the bell, Libya said it is dismantling its weapons program and helping experts determine if more technology and expertise has been trafficked, the AP reported. Atlanta-based Delta said it created 1,000 call-center jobs last year in India, saving $25M in 03, thus allowing it to hire 1,200 more U.S. employees in reservations and sales. Moody's said it lowered its rating on $350M of debt of LaBranche & Co., the biggest specialist on the NYSE, to junk status to reflect the costs of its pending $63.5M settlement with regulators. Deutshe Bank is hiring 10 senior investment bankers from CSFB to beef up its technology i-banking practice. Goldman Sachs is saying DELL remains positive on overall IT spending and its growth opportunities. James Cramer of TheStreet.com is saying it is too late to sell tech and is slowly starting to make some selective buys.
BOTTOM LINE: It was a bad day for the NASDAQ and technology shares, however volume was light and areas such as retail, restaurants, financials and energy showed relative strength. In the later part of the day, I increased the Portfolio's market exposure to 20% net long by covering a few of my winning semi shorts. My short-term indicators are still giving sell-signals, however overbought/oversold readings are leading me to anticipate an oversold bounce in tech. Moreover, the MSH index is down 6.2% from its high and right around the 50-day moving avg. where it has found support 3 other times in the last year.
NASDAQ 2,007.52 -1.49%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +.78%
Energy +.6%
Restaurants +.58%
Lagging Sectors
Broadcasting -2.23%
Semis -2.74%
Disk Drives -3.27%
Other
Crude Oil 34.40 +.15%
Natural Gas 5.14 +.16%
Gold 399.00 -.08%
Base Metals 110.16 -1.66%
U.S. Dollar 86.94 -.34%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.03% -1.51%
VIX 16.29 +1.56%
Put/Call .61 -29.07%
NYSE Arms 1.22 -18.12%
After-hours Movers
NOVL +3.48% after reporting in-line 1Q and slight revenue shortfall.
ZRAN +5.6% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
SNPS -10.1% after beating 1Q estimates, but lowering 04 guidance and announcing 2 acquisitions.
ODSY -13.0% after meeting 4Q estimates, but lowering 04 guidance.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell for the 4th straight day on light volume, led by computer related companies as investors shifted out of last year's best performers and into consumer cyclicals. After the bell, Libya said it is dismantling its weapons program and helping experts determine if more technology and expertise has been trafficked, the AP reported. Atlanta-based Delta said it created 1,000 call-center jobs last year in India, saving $25M in 03, thus allowing it to hire 1,200 more U.S. employees in reservations and sales. Moody's said it lowered its rating on $350M of debt of LaBranche & Co., the biggest specialist on the NYSE, to junk status to reflect the costs of its pending $63.5M settlement with regulators. Deutshe Bank is hiring 10 senior investment bankers from CSFB to beef up its technology i-banking practice. Goldman Sachs is saying DELL remains positive on overall IT spending and its growth opportunities. James Cramer of TheStreet.com is saying it is too late to sell tech and is slowly starting to make some selective buys.
BOTTOM LINE: It was a bad day for the NASDAQ and technology shares, however volume was light and areas such as retail, restaurants, financials and energy showed relative strength. In the later part of the day, I increased the Portfolio's market exposure to 20% net long by covering a few of my winning semi shorts. My short-term indicators are still giving sell-signals, however overbought/oversold readings are leading me to anticipate an oversold bounce in tech. Moreover, the MSH index is down 6.2% from its high and right around the 50-day moving avg. where it has found support 3 other times in the last year.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,140.08 -.35%
NASDAQ 2,012.51 -1.25%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +.78%
Restaurants +.57%
Energy +.51%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -1.95%
Disk Drives -2.49%
Semis -2.56%
Other
Crude Oil 34.40 +.44%
Natural Gas 5.12 -1.41%
Gold 399.50 +.38%
Base Metals 110.16 -1.66%
U.S. Dollar 86.85 -.45%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.07% -.66%
VIX 16.52 +2.99%
Put/Call .58 -32.5%
NYSE Arms 1.27 -14.77%
Market Movers
QCOM +5.64% on boosting 2Q forecast significantly.
LOW -2.7% on profit-taking as 4Q beat expectations and raised 1Q guidance.
CMOS -12.4% on $660M offer to buy NPTest, a 29.3% premium.
VRTX +12.6% after saying an experimental drug reduced the growth of pancreatic and colon tumors in animal studies.
INTC -2.3% after saying that 2003 profit would have been 18% less if they had accounted for options as an compensation expense.
TXU +6.73% after hiring the former CFO of Entergy as CEO.
Recommendations
Morgan Stanley thinks the oil service sector is getting ready for another leg up. MS sees flatish vehicle sales in the next 6-9 months. MS also raised price target for TK to $70 from $62. Goldman Sachs is bullish on IGT, HET, CZR and STN. Citigroup Smith Barney says INTC and TXN generate less profit per sales dollar now than in the past, while NSM, AGR/A, LLTC and MXIM appear more efficient this cycle. Citi still likes vertically integrated semi companies with margin leverage that can drive EPS meaningfully higher, INTC, FCS, CY and MU. Citi is also positive on HMO's, favorites are ATH, WLP and UNH. Finally, Citi is positive on consumer cyclicals due to easy comps, tax benefits, lack of war, no SARS and improved hiring prospects. COMS was cut to "Equal Weight/Neutral" at Lehman. EDS was cut to "Sell" at Deutsche Bank.
Economic Data
None of Note. Greenspan said consumers' ability to handle debt is in good shape, with debt service levels flat over the last 2 years. Greenspan said the ratio of net worth to income is currently somewhat higher than its long-term average. He also said rising credit card use isn't a financial weakness. Finally, he said a rise in renter's debt may be of concern.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day, led by weakness in technology shares. Intel said 04 gross margins will be about 62%, five percentage points wider than in 03. Wal-Mart Stores said February sales at stores open at least a year are rising near the high end of its expectations. The U.S. is sending 50 marines to guard the Haiti embassy, according to Sky News. The U.S. Army plans to cancel the Boeing/United Technologies Comanche helicopter program. There is significant insider buying in TYC and CVG in the latest report from Bloomberg. Soybeans are hitting a 15-yr. high on concern for crops in Brazil. U.S. 4Q Online commerce rose 25% to $17.2B, 4 times as fast as all retail sales.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio, positioned market neutral, is having a good day as my shorts are dropping more than my longs. The weakness in tech is broad-based. I may close a couple of profitable shorts later in the day as my indicators are showing tech is getting oversold near-term.
NASDAQ 2,012.51 -1.25%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +.78%
Restaurants +.57%
Energy +.51%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -1.95%
Disk Drives -2.49%
Semis -2.56%
Other
Crude Oil 34.40 +.44%
Natural Gas 5.12 -1.41%
Gold 399.50 +.38%
Base Metals 110.16 -1.66%
U.S. Dollar 86.85 -.45%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.07% -.66%
VIX 16.52 +2.99%
Put/Call .58 -32.5%
NYSE Arms 1.27 -14.77%
Market Movers
QCOM +5.64% on boosting 2Q forecast significantly.
LOW -2.7% on profit-taking as 4Q beat expectations and raised 1Q guidance.
CMOS -12.4% on $660M offer to buy NPTest, a 29.3% premium.
VRTX +12.6% after saying an experimental drug reduced the growth of pancreatic and colon tumors in animal studies.
INTC -2.3% after saying that 2003 profit would have been 18% less if they had accounted for options as an compensation expense.
TXU +6.73% after hiring the former CFO of Entergy as CEO.
Recommendations
Morgan Stanley thinks the oil service sector is getting ready for another leg up. MS sees flatish vehicle sales in the next 6-9 months. MS also raised price target for TK to $70 from $62. Goldman Sachs is bullish on IGT, HET, CZR and STN. Citigroup Smith Barney says INTC and TXN generate less profit per sales dollar now than in the past, while NSM, AGR/A, LLTC and MXIM appear more efficient this cycle. Citi still likes vertically integrated semi companies with margin leverage that can drive EPS meaningfully higher, INTC, FCS, CY and MU. Citi is also positive on HMO's, favorites are ATH, WLP and UNH. Finally, Citi is positive on consumer cyclicals due to easy comps, tax benefits, lack of war, no SARS and improved hiring prospects. COMS was cut to "Equal Weight/Neutral" at Lehman. EDS was cut to "Sell" at Deutsche Bank.
Economic Data
None of Note. Greenspan said consumers' ability to handle debt is in good shape, with debt service levels flat over the last 2 years. Greenspan said the ratio of net worth to income is currently somewhat higher than its long-term average. He also said rising credit card use isn't a financial weakness. Finally, he said a rise in renter's debt may be of concern.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day, led by weakness in technology shares. Intel said 04 gross margins will be about 62%, five percentage points wider than in 03. Wal-Mart Stores said February sales at stores open at least a year are rising near the high end of its expectations. The U.S. is sending 50 marines to guard the Haiti embassy, according to Sky News. The U.S. Army plans to cancel the Boeing/United Technologies Comanche helicopter program. There is significant insider buying in TYC and CVG in the latest report from Bloomberg. Soybeans are hitting a 15-yr. high on concern for crops in Brazil. U.S. 4Q Online commerce rose 25% to $17.2B, 4 times as fast as all retail sales.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio, positioned market neutral, is having a good day as my shorts are dropping more than my longs. The weakness in tech is broad-based. I may close a couple of profitable shorts later in the day as my indicators are showing tech is getting oversold near-term.
Monday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimates
CPB/.57
CHK/.35
CE/.20
LOW/.50
NOVL/.03
SNPS/.31
WIND/-.03
ZRAN/.08
Splits
MSCC 2-for1, MICC 4-for-1
Economic Data
None of note. Greenspan is speaking at 9:30 EST at the Credit Union National Association Government Affairs Office in Washington.
Weekend News
The U.K. government will recruit 1,000 new staff members for the MI5 intelligence agency to fight terrorism, taking its numbers back to Cold War levels. DaimlerChrysler and Volkswagen plan to renew efforts to sell diesel-engine cars in the U.S., the Washington Post reported. Yahoo! CEO Semel says the company's future is almost exclusively on the Internet and not in partnerships with movie studios, record label or t.v. networks, the NY Times said. Kodak will launch an online photo service for camera phones, the AP said. Nokia has made the first mobile-phone handset that can access the Internet using short range wireless technology, called Wi-Fi, rather than rely on a cellular network, the Wall Street Journal said. Nokia also says sales of its N-Gage products are below expectations, the Financial Times reports. Russia's government said it wants state-run OAO Transneft to build a crude oil pipeline to the Pacific coast so that sales can be opened to all buyers, including the U.S. and Japan. Tokyo-Mitsubishi says the U.S. dollar's drop versus the Yen may have ended. Prices of U.S. hot-rolled steel are up 66% since June, Meps Intl. said. Pakistan is planning a military offensive in the coming weeks to expel al-Qaeda and Taliban forces along its Afghan border, the NY Times reported. According to Tradesports.com, there is now a 62% chance of catching Bin Laden this year, up 16 percentage points today.
Weekend Recommendations
Guests on "Forbes on Fox" made positive comments on KFT and CVS. They also speculated that PCS, BEAS and VRTS could all be takeover targets. On "Cashin' In", PNX, SPI, ADM and UTX were talked up, while TASR was panned. Barron's had positive comments on MSFT and the possibility of it announcing a large dividend/buyback. TGT was also mentioned positively. It had negative analysis on TIVO, NFLX, AMAT, GTW and the NASDAQ. Merrill Lynch is recommending investors increase their exposure to Japanese stocks, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are down modestly with the exception of the Nikkei, which is up 1.4%.
S&P 500 indicated +.16%.
NASDAQ indicated +.24%.
BOTTOM LINE: I am not sure how much the capture of Bin Laden would help U.S. stocks. My gut feeling is that a rally of 1-2% on the news would occur, followed by profit-taking, leaving the indices up modestly.
Company/Estimates
CPB/.57
CHK/.35
CE/.20
LOW/.50
NOVL/.03
SNPS/.31
WIND/-.03
ZRAN/.08
Splits
MSCC 2-for1, MICC 4-for-1
Economic Data
None of note. Greenspan is speaking at 9:30 EST at the Credit Union National Association Government Affairs Office in Washington.
Weekend News
The U.K. government will recruit 1,000 new staff members for the MI5 intelligence agency to fight terrorism, taking its numbers back to Cold War levels. DaimlerChrysler and Volkswagen plan to renew efforts to sell diesel-engine cars in the U.S., the Washington Post reported. Yahoo! CEO Semel says the company's future is almost exclusively on the Internet and not in partnerships with movie studios, record label or t.v. networks, the NY Times said. Kodak will launch an online photo service for camera phones, the AP said. Nokia has made the first mobile-phone handset that can access the Internet using short range wireless technology, called Wi-Fi, rather than rely on a cellular network, the Wall Street Journal said. Nokia also says sales of its N-Gage products are below expectations, the Financial Times reports. Russia's government said it wants state-run OAO Transneft to build a crude oil pipeline to the Pacific coast so that sales can be opened to all buyers, including the U.S. and Japan. Tokyo-Mitsubishi says the U.S. dollar's drop versus the Yen may have ended. Prices of U.S. hot-rolled steel are up 66% since June, Meps Intl. said. Pakistan is planning a military offensive in the coming weeks to expel al-Qaeda and Taliban forces along its Afghan border, the NY Times reported. According to Tradesports.com, there is now a 62% chance of catching Bin Laden this year, up 16 percentage points today.
Weekend Recommendations
Guests on "Forbes on Fox" made positive comments on KFT and CVS. They also speculated that PCS, BEAS and VRTS could all be takeover targets. On "Cashin' In", PNX, SPI, ADM and UTX were talked up, while TASR was panned. Barron's had positive comments on MSFT and the possibility of it announcing a large dividend/buyback. TGT was also mentioned positively. It had negative analysis on TIVO, NFLX, AMAT, GTW and the NASDAQ. Merrill Lynch is recommending investors increase their exposure to Japanese stocks, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are down modestly with the exception of the Nikkei, which is up 1.4%.
S&P 500 indicated +.16%.
NASDAQ indicated +.24%.
BOTTOM LINE: I am not sure how much the capture of Bin Laden would help U.S. stocks. My gut feeling is that a rally of 1-2% on the news would occur, followed by profit-taking, leaving the indices up modestly.
Sunday, February 22, 2004
Weekly Outlook
Investors will focus on another round of economic data and earnings reports from many retailers next week. In addition to these reports, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will be speaking on Mon. and Fri. The Sunday Express is reporting that Bin Laden is cornered in a mountainous area in northwest Pakistan, near the Afghan border. Quoting a U.S. intelligence source, it said Bin Laden and 50 fanatical henchmen were inside an area 16 kilometers wide and deep. Tradesports.com is showing the chances of catching Bin Laden this year are now 55.0%. This would likely result in a mildly positive response from the markets. As well, Tradesports.com is showing President Bush's chances of re-election increased to 65.0% after Ralph Nader announced his candidacy over the weekend.
BOTTOM LINE: Major U.S. indices will likely fall or remain in a trading range through next week. Most of the short-term indicators I follow are giving negative readings. The Portfolio is now market neutral. I will most likely sell into any substantial rallies next week. I will closely watch the market's reaction to what should be very positive news from the economic front and the retailing sector. I am still very bullish for the year, but I am not going to fight the tape. Right now we are in a correction/consolidation phase and the Portfolio is positioned accordingly.
BOTTOM LINE: Major U.S. indices will likely fall or remain in a trading range through next week. Most of the short-term indicators I follow are giving negative readings. The Portfolio is now market neutral. I will most likely sell into any substantial rallies next week. I will closely watch the market's reaction to what should be very positive news from the economic front and the retailing sector. I am still very bullish for the year, but I am not going to fight the tape. Right now we are in a correction/consolidation phase and the Portfolio is positioned accordingly.
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