Tuesday, February 24, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,142 +.12%
NASDAQ 2,009.86 +.12%


Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.74%
Homebuilders +1.26%
Telecom +1.25%

Lagging Sectors
Defense -.78%
I-Banks -.79%
Fashion -1.51%

Other
Crude Oil 34.49 +.29%
Natural Gas 5.12 -.23%
Gold 404.10 +1.20%
Base Metals 111.25 +.99%
U.S. Dollar 86.14 -.89%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.02% -.48%
VIX 15.96 -2.03%
Put/Call .72 +18.03%
NYSE Arms 1.10 -9.8%

Market Movers
NFLX -11.45% on lowered guidance due to higher marketing costs associated with subscriber growth.
CPN -9.4% on cancellation of $2.3B offering. It will explore different options to address debt payment due in November that could result in bankruptcy.
MOSY +85.9% on SNPS buyout. SNPS -14.95%.
KCI +32.0% on strong demand for I.P.O.
ZRAN +13.6% after meeting 4Q estimates and raising 1Q sales guidance.
GDT +7.58% after obtaining the rights to co-promote JNJ's drug-coated stent.
SEE +6.07% on upgrade from CSFB to "Outperform."
ODSY -27.3% after lowering 1Q guidance.

Economic Data
Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in at 87.3 vs. expectations of 92.0.

Recommendations
Accenture CFO, giving the keynote dinner comments at the Goldman Sachs Tech conference yesterday, indicated that his software project pipeline was at a 3-yr. high. GS is recommending VRTS, says estimates are conservative for 04 and reiterates $37 target. GS says communications semi biz is fast improving on the back of carrier capex that looks to be up in 04 and that high foundry utilization is causing lead times to increase and wafer costs to be very firm. GS likes small-cap Oil & Gas E&P companies, KWK and TBI. TheStreet.com is reporting that the SG Cowen biotech team thinks that Genentech's(DNA) new cancer drug, Avastin, will significantly beat expectations after FDA approval in March. James Creamer of TheStreet.com is buying NT here as he thinks tech selling is overdone. Citi Smith Barney initiating WTW with a "Buy" and $46 target ahead of earnings release tonight. Citi is adding WC to focus list, replacing KELYA. BSX raised to "Buy" at UBS. ZRAN raised to "Sector Outperform" at CIBC. ELBO, GME raised to "Buy" at Bank of America. VZ, AWE raised to "Overweight" at Morgan Stanley, PCS, NXTL, FON and T cut to "Underweight." OATS cut to "Sell" at Merrill, GDT raised to "Buy."

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed in mid-day trading, as a muted rebound in tech and a strong healthcare sector are offset by weakness in industirals. Attempts to stop U.S. jobs from going to other countries may raise a debate in Congress over the entire concept of free trade, South Carolina Democratic Congressman told CNBC. Fidelity Investments almost tripled sales last year after it cut prices, added funds and won customers fleeing firms sued by regulators for illegal trading. The E.U. halted imports of U.S. birds and eggs after Texas flu cases discovered. CIA director George Tenet says the U.S. faces "a heightened risk of poison attacks" from al-Qaeda.

BOTTOM LINE: The bounce I was expecting in technology occurred, but was rather weak. Thus, I have not added any new longs. The Portfolio is still 20% net long. I will closely monitor late-day action for any signs of strength. The consumer confidence number's weakness is a result of politics and I believe it will start improving again in the near future.

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