Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Tuesday Watch

Earnings Announcements

Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing estimated at 37 vs. 39.2 last month.
Industrial Production estimated at .8% vs. .1% last month.
Capacity Utilization estimated at 76.4% vs. 75.8% last month.

Weekend News
U.N. says bird flu eradication may take years. Disney(DIS) may be worth up to $35/share according to Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns, the company's advisers. The Democratic Party wants to increase taxes on the wealthy to spend as much as $6B more annually on education, according to the Washington Post. Senator Kerry's chances of winning the Democratic nomination rebounded to 95% over the weekend, as no additional news regarding the intern scandal surfaced. The NYPD has been preparing for possible nuclear, biological or chemical weapons attacks, the NY Times reported. Wal-Mart said February sales at U.S. stores are rising at the high end of its forecast, as shoppers purchased more coats, food and Valentine's items last week. U.K. warns major terror attacks may be imminent in Saudi Arabia. North Fork Bancorp confirmed rumors that it would buy GreenPoint Financial for $6.3B.

Weekend Recommendations
Guests on "Forbes on Fox" made positive comments on APC,COP,CAM,POG and NWL. On "Cashin N", ATVI, MX, TELK, NGG and VE were talked up. ATVI, NTOP, GNSS, LUV, and TXN were recommended on "Bulls and Bears". Barron's had positive comments on LORLF, DIS, JNS, HZO, CLE, FITE, ANN and CHS. It had negative analysis on CMCSK, FD, MAY, DDS, SKS and the technology sector.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are up on average .75% to 1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.24%.
NASDAQ indicated +.47%.

BOTTOM LINE: With my short-term indicators on "sell", I have positioned the Portfolio conservatively at 40% net long. It looks like the markets may try and rebound on the open from the end-of-week selling. I will closely watch the strength of this rebound and my short-term indicators. I am very bullish intermediate-term, but I don't want to fight the tape.

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