Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
BHI/.28
COX/.06
CVS/.58
Dell/.28
MTLG/.19
NVDA/.11
UNA/.01
XMSR/-1.15
ADI/.28
AH/.29
LH/.53
Splits
None of note
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for Jan. are expected to come in unch. vs. an increase of .5% last month.
Initial jobless claims are expected at 345K vs. 356k last week.
Continuing claims are expected at 3,100K vs. 3,123K last week.
Business inventories are expected to increase .3% vs. a .3% increase last month.
Late-night News
CEO's say they are more confident and are prepared to boost both capital expenditures and mergers/acquisitions activity, the Financial Times reported, citing a survey by Goldman Sachs. The general global business outlook index, the index of how many domestic deals CEO's are planning and the index of U.S. executives who plan to spend on fixed investment all increased significantly in the survey. CIA Director George Tenet has ordered an end to a practice whereby intelligence analysts aren't provided with details about the individuals who provided the information they are evaluating. Chinese industrial production rose 19% last month, its fastest pace on record, as factories made more cars, computers and clothes to meet rising demand at home and abroad. Japanese machinery orders rose 8.1% in December versus an expectation of 2.6% by 40 economists, bolstering economists' predictions that growing business investment is fueling growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mixed, ranging from -.25% to +.75%.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ indicated +.10%.
BOTTOM LINE: The Goldman Sachs survey mentioned above confirms what I have been thinking. It is very likely 1st Q GDP growth will exceed the current 4.6% estimates. A number north of 5% growth is likely. I am a little troubled by the recent divergence between the performance of the Dow and the Nasdaq, but will attribute it to the recent vicious rotation out of and then into cyclicals in a very short period. Moreover, volume and bredth have not been exceptional on this last move up. The portfolio is having another very good year and I don't want to give back these significant gains, thus I will be very quick to shift to a more conservative stance if market weakness dictates such. The next couple of days I plan to rotate out of some recent winners and into some stocks I like fundamentally that have lagged and are just now breaking out technically. I will try and maintain 80-100% market exposure while making these changes.
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