Wednesday, February 25, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,143.67 +.40%
NASDAQ 2,022.98 +.87%


Leading Sectors
Networking +2.84%
Disk Drives +2.65%
Semis +1.82%

Lagging Sectors
Fashion -.08%
Broadband -.17%
Telecom -.35%

Other
Crude Oil 35.70 +.06%
Natural Gas 5.23 +.23%
Gold 396.80 +.18%
Base Metals 112.75 +1.25%
U.S. Dollar 87.25 +1.28%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.01% -.29%
VIX 14.93 -6.10%
Put/Call .76 unch.
NYSE Arms .78 -45.45%

After-hours Movers
SBUX -3.77% after CEO said February same-store sales growth of 13% and 32% revenue growth isn't sustainable.
VTS +6.1% after significantly beating 2Q earnings/sales estimates.
MW +3.6% after beating 4Q estimates.
OPEN +6.25% after beating 4Q earnings estimates and raising 1Q guidance.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs says that Pizza Hut's new pre-packaged salads for delivery will be supplied entirely by PFGC's Fresh Express Business. They reiterate their "Outperform" and expect 25% upside over the next 12 months. GS also thinks CCL's guidance is conservative. Goldman views CMX as the best positioned pharmaceutical benefit manager because of its specialty offerings and growing blue chip customer base. TheStreet.com reported that chip-equipment maker Novellus Systems raised its expectations for orders, sales and earnings in a mid-quarter update.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished the day stonger on fairly light volume. Strong earnings reports and optimistic comments from Alan Greenspan sparked the rise. After the close, Treasury Secretary John Snow said China has pledged to end its currency's peg with the dollar, helping U.S. manufacturing firms' competitiveness. Illinois named Isle of Capri, Harrah's Entertainment and Midwest Gaming as finalists for a casino gaming license it's selling, Reuters reported. The U.S. Justice Department has requested information from Nextel Communications, Motorola and Verizon for an antitrust probe of the push-to-talk mobile-phone market dominated by Nextel. CALPERS will withhold votes for the re-election to the board of Disney CEO Eisner.

BOTTOM LINE: I made some buys in the afternoon and covered a short, bringing the Porfolio's market exposure up to 75% net long. My short-term indicators are still giving sell signals. However, I am anticipating some follow-through to this rally as end-of-the-month positioning occurs and tech bounces from oversold levels. I concentrated my buys in tech, beaten-up chinese cyclicals and retail.

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