Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Wednesday Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,151.70+.54%
NASDAQ 2,081.39+.29%


Leading Sectors
I-Banks+2.44%
Iron/Steel+2.16%
Homebuilders+1.46%

Lagging Sectors
Defense-.12%
Drugs-.07%
HMO's-2.49%

Other
Crude Oil 34.17+92%
Natural Gas 5.22-3.03%
Gold 411.10+1.01%
10-Yr. Long-bond yield 4.02%-2.12%
U.S. Dollar Index 85.24-.7%

Market Movers
CMCSA down on $54.1B DIS acquisition as analysts cut ratings.
DISH up on buy-out speculation.
PCLN up on stronger than expected earnings announcement.
DKS up on raised guidance and 2-for-1 split announcement.
TASR up on short-covering after 3-for-1 split.
ZBRA up on better than expected 4th quarter earnings.
BGP up on better than expected 4th quarter earnings.
MUSE up on better than expected 4th quarter earnings.
MANH up on strong earnings report and raised guidance.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rallying mid-day after Greenspan said the Fed can remain patient about raising rates even as the economy expands at a faster-than-expected rate. Greenspan said the U.S. economy may expand as much as 5% this year, the strongest growth in 20 years, and push the unemployment rate lower. This is 25 basis points higher than the Fed's last forecast. Comcast's plans to acquire Disney also dominated mid-day news as analyst's speculate on the deal's ramifications. Auto sales off to slow start in Feb. according to Goldman Sachs. PC Motherboard shipments in Jan. much higher than expected says Smith Barney. The latest available data show foreigners' appetite for stocks and bonds remains voracious. In November, purchases of US stocks and bonds jumped 217% to 87.6 billion, after a 560% jump in October according to The Street.com.

BOTTOM LINE: The advance/decline line is weaker than I would have hoped for on this Greenspan inspired rally, however the Portfolio is having a very good day. I made a few purchases in the morning bringing my net long exposure to 100%. The dollar is weak, interest rates are falling and cyclicals are strong on Greenspan's testimony. The recipe seems right for continued gains on the long-side. I will monitor the market's price action in the final hour before making any further changes.

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