There are a number of important economic reports and significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week. Economic reports include Existing Home Sales(Mon.), Consumer Confidence(Tues.), Durable Goods Orders(Wed.), New Home Sales(Wed.), Fed's Beige Book(Wed.), Initial Jobless Claims(Thur.), Continuing Claims(Thur.), 3Q Actual GDP(Fri.), 3Q Actual Personal Consumption(Fri.) and 3Q Actual Price Deflator(Fri.). Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and 3Q Actual GDP all have market-moving potential.
Ryder Systems(R-Mon.), Pulte Homes(PHM-Mon.), DuPont(DD-Tues.), Procter & Gamble(PG-Wed.), Boeing(BA-Wed.), Sirius Satellite(SIRI-Wed.), Unilever(UL-Wed.), Martha Stewart Living(MSO-Thur.), JetBlue Airways(JBLU-Thur.) and Verizon(VZ-Thur.) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also some other events that have market-moving potential. The JP Morgan Small-cap Conference(Mon.), CSFB Building Products Conference(Wed.) and Prudential Technology Conference(Wed.) could also impact trading this week.
Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to finish the week modestly higher as shares head lower early in the week and then rebound towards week's end on diminishing domestic terrorism fears, optimism over future economic growth and anticipation of an end to the bitter political rhetoric. My short-term trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
Sunday, October 24, 2004
Market Week in Review
S&P 500 1,095.74 -1.12%
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Bottom Line: Market action last week was mixed as HMO and telecom stocks led the S&P 500 and DJIA lower, while software and semiconductor shares boosted the NASDAQ. Last week was not good for the Bulls, however declines were relatively muted considering energy's continuing rise, a tightening of the Presidential polls, mixed earnings reports and steep declines in the HMO sector. Once again, Democratic NY Attorney General Spitzer's widening insurance probe resulted in major losses for unknowing investors and will undoubtedly lead to future job losses in the HMO industry. As I have stated before, executives should be held more personally liable for any illegal actions and the companies themselves less liable, to minimize job losses and investor pain. It is extremely unfair and is a significant burden on the U.S. economy to punish so many innocent people for the actions of a few rogue executives. On the positive side, interest rates fell again, most commodity prices stabilized, technology/small-caps stocks outperformed and the advance/decline line only fell modestly. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed on the week.
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Bottom Line: Market action last week was mixed as HMO and telecom stocks led the S&P 500 and DJIA lower, while software and semiconductor shares boosted the NASDAQ. Last week was not good for the Bulls, however declines were relatively muted considering energy's continuing rise, a tightening of the Presidential polls, mixed earnings reports and steep declines in the HMO sector. Once again, Democratic NY Attorney General Spitzer's widening insurance probe resulted in major losses for unknowing investors and will undoubtedly lead to future job losses in the HMO industry. As I have stated before, executives should be held more personally liable for any illegal actions and the companies themselves less liable, to minimize job losses and investor pain. It is extremely unfair and is a significant burden on the U.S. economy to punish so many innocent people for the actions of a few rogue executives. On the positive side, interest rates fell again, most commodity prices stabilized, technology/small-caps stocks outperformed and the advance/decline line only fell modestly. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed on the week.
Saturday, October 23, 2004
Economic Week in Review
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 131.60 +.46%
The NAHB Housing Market Index for October rose to 72, the highest in a year, versus estimates of 68 and a reading of 67 in September. The index of optimism among U.S. homebuilders soared in October as mortgage rates hovered near a four-decade low, increasing the likelihood that construction will bolster economic growth, Bloomberg said. Readings higher than 50 mean more builders view conditions as good than poor. The group's index has exceeded 60 for 17 months in a row, Bloomberg reported. A gauge of market expectations for the next six months rose to 84 from 75, the highest level in 5 years. The increase in expectations was the largest in 13 years.
The Consumer Price Index for September rose .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% gain in August. The CPI Ex Food & Energy for September rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% rise and a .1% increase in August. A 2.7% jump in the cost of hotel stays and other lodging away from home accounted for about three-fourths of the September increase in the core, the Labor Dept. said. Alan Greenspan said that while high crude oil prices are having an effect on the economy, they aren't high enough to spark inflation and slow growth like the U.S. experienced in prior energy shocks, Bloomberg said. Prices for new automobiles fell .2% and clothing/food prices were unchanged.
Housing Starts for September were 1898K versus estimates of 1950K and 2020K in August. Building Permits for September were 2005K versus estimates of 1950K and 1969K in August. The larger-than-expected decrease suggest the market my have cooled a bit after a buying surge in recent months. However, the pace through September was rapid enough for this year to be the best for home construction since 1978, Bloomberg reported. Some of the dip "likely reflects the impact of hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, and will not persist," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Moreover, the 1.8% rise in building permits was the best showing in a few months, indicating construction will be sustained, Bloomberg said. Measured at an annual rate, construction grew 10.4% in the third quarter. "That implies the contribution of housing to GDP will be quite strong," said Gary Bigg, an economist at Bank of America Securities.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 329K versus estimates of 345K and 354K the prior week. Continuing Claims were 2798K versus estimates of 2840K and 2806K prior. "Employment is probably growing solidly," said James O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities. "The bottom line is that the claims numbers are pretty strong." "The job market is getting better and hiring is increasing the most in sales, accounting and healthcare," said Andrew McKelvey, chief executive of Monster Worldwide.
Leading Indicators for September fell .1% versus estimates of a .1% decline and a .3% decrease in August. "We have to get through this election cycle and then I think you will see the business community begin to make decisions on new capital investments and new hiring as we go into next year," said David Ratcliffe, CEO of Southern Co. and chairman of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank board. As well, hurricanes that struck the southeast during the month probably acted as a restraint on the leading indicators index because they limited hours worked and pushed up first-time jobless claims, economists said. "We do not view the recent declines in the LEI as signaling any sort of fundamental shift in economic activity," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities.
The Philadelphia Fed. Index rose to 28.5 in October versus estimates of 18.0 and a reading of 13.4 in September. The survey covers Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. The index reached a 10-year high of 38.8 earlier this year and has exceeded 30 for four months this year, Bloomberg reported. Moreover, the percentage of firms reporting increases in business activity(40%) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases(11%) for the 17th straight month.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's economic data were modestly positive. The better-than-expected readings for the Housing Market Index and Building Permits suggest housing, already strong, should accelerate into year-end. Core consumer prices continue to rise at a relatively moderate pace, keeping inflation in check. Declining prices for autos, electronics, phone services and clothing are mostly offsetting rising commodity and healthcare prices. Jobless claims are showing improvement in the labor market again after the temporary depressing effects from the record-setting hurricanes that ravaged Florida and other southern states. While the monthly Leading Indicators declined, the Weekly Leading Index rose and should begin heading higher during November as the negative effects from the U.S. election diminish. Measures of manufacturing activity remain high and should also show acceleration in November.
The NAHB Housing Market Index for October rose to 72, the highest in a year, versus estimates of 68 and a reading of 67 in September. The index of optimism among U.S. homebuilders soared in October as mortgage rates hovered near a four-decade low, increasing the likelihood that construction will bolster economic growth, Bloomberg said. Readings higher than 50 mean more builders view conditions as good than poor. The group's index has exceeded 60 for 17 months in a row, Bloomberg reported. A gauge of market expectations for the next six months rose to 84 from 75, the highest level in 5 years. The increase in expectations was the largest in 13 years.
The Consumer Price Index for September rose .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% gain in August. The CPI Ex Food & Energy for September rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% rise and a .1% increase in August. A 2.7% jump in the cost of hotel stays and other lodging away from home accounted for about three-fourths of the September increase in the core, the Labor Dept. said. Alan Greenspan said that while high crude oil prices are having an effect on the economy, they aren't high enough to spark inflation and slow growth like the U.S. experienced in prior energy shocks, Bloomberg said. Prices for new automobiles fell .2% and clothing/food prices were unchanged.
Housing Starts for September were 1898K versus estimates of 1950K and 2020K in August. Building Permits for September were 2005K versus estimates of 1950K and 1969K in August. The larger-than-expected decrease suggest the market my have cooled a bit after a buying surge in recent months. However, the pace through September was rapid enough for this year to be the best for home construction since 1978, Bloomberg reported. Some of the dip "likely reflects the impact of hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, and will not persist," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Moreover, the 1.8% rise in building permits was the best showing in a few months, indicating construction will be sustained, Bloomberg said. Measured at an annual rate, construction grew 10.4% in the third quarter. "That implies the contribution of housing to GDP will be quite strong," said Gary Bigg, an economist at Bank of America Securities.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 329K versus estimates of 345K and 354K the prior week. Continuing Claims were 2798K versus estimates of 2840K and 2806K prior. "Employment is probably growing solidly," said James O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities. "The bottom line is that the claims numbers are pretty strong." "The job market is getting better and hiring is increasing the most in sales, accounting and healthcare," said Andrew McKelvey, chief executive of Monster Worldwide.
Leading Indicators for September fell .1% versus estimates of a .1% decline and a .3% decrease in August. "We have to get through this election cycle and then I think you will see the business community begin to make decisions on new capital investments and new hiring as we go into next year," said David Ratcliffe, CEO of Southern Co. and chairman of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank board. As well, hurricanes that struck the southeast during the month probably acted as a restraint on the leading indicators index because they limited hours worked and pushed up first-time jobless claims, economists said. "We do not view the recent declines in the LEI as signaling any sort of fundamental shift in economic activity," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities.
The Philadelphia Fed. Index rose to 28.5 in October versus estimates of 18.0 and a reading of 13.4 in September. The survey covers Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. The index reached a 10-year high of 38.8 earlier this year and has exceeded 30 for four months this year, Bloomberg reported. Moreover, the percentage of firms reporting increases in business activity(40%) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases(11%) for the 17th straight month.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's economic data were modestly positive. The better-than-expected readings for the Housing Market Index and Building Permits suggest housing, already strong, should accelerate into year-end. Core consumer prices continue to rise at a relatively moderate pace, keeping inflation in check. Declining prices for autos, electronics, phone services and clothing are mostly offsetting rising commodity and healthcare prices. Jobless claims are showing improvement in the labor market again after the temporary depressing effects from the record-setting hurricanes that ravaged Florida and other southern states. While the monthly Leading Indicators declined, the Weekly Leading Index rose and should begin heading higher during November as the negative effects from the U.S. election diminish. Measures of manufacturing activity remain high and should also show acceleration in November.
Friday, October 22, 2004
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,095.74 -1.12%
Dow 9,757.81 -1.77%
NASDAQ 1,915.14 +.19%
Russell 2000 567.78 -.29%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 971.14 +.02%
Put/Call .74 -15.91%
NYSE Arms 1.27 -9.29%
Volatility(VIX) 15.28 +1.60%
AAII % Bulls 42.48 -4.99%
US Dollar 85.87 -1.47%
CRB 286.55 +.34%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 425.60 +1.29%
Crude Oil 55.17 +2.26%
Unleaded Gasoline 143.76 +1.89%
Natural Gas 8.11 +20.79%
Heating Oil 159.44 +3.0%
Base Metals 112.86 -1.46%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.98% -1.95%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.74% -1.37%
Leading Sectors
Semis +3.62%
I-Banks +2.95%
Software +2.88%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -3.81%
Iron/Steel -5.59%
HMOs -8.15%
*% Gain or loss for the week
S&P 500 1,095.74 -1.12%
Dow 9,757.81 -1.77%
NASDAQ 1,915.14 +.19%
Russell 2000 567.78 -.29%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 971.14 +.02%
Put/Call .74 -15.91%
NYSE Arms 1.27 -9.29%
Volatility(VIX) 15.28 +1.60%
AAII % Bulls 42.48 -4.99%
US Dollar 85.87 -1.47%
CRB 286.55 +.34%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 425.60 +1.29%
Crude Oil 55.17 +2.26%
Unleaded Gasoline 143.76 +1.89%
Natural Gas 8.11 +20.79%
Heating Oil 159.44 +3.0%
Base Metals 112.86 -1.46%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.98% -1.95%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.74% -1.37%
Leading Sectors
Semis +3.62%
I-Banks +2.95%
Software +2.88%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -3.81%
Iron/Steel -5.59%
HMOs -8.15%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,104.43 -.19%
NASDAQ 1,937.20 -.84%
Leading Sectors
HMOs +1.65%
Hospitals +1.55%
Utilities +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Services -1.23%
Telecom -1.35%
Semis -2.16%
Other
Crude Oil 55.29 +1.52%
Natural Gas 8.07 +4.85%
Gold 425.80 +.05%
Base Metals 112.86 -.86%
U.S. Dollar 85.95 -.09%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.0% +.24%
VIX 14.43 -.89%
Put/Call .64 -17.95%
NYSE Arms .85 -23.21%
Market Movers
BRCM -12.0% after beating 3Q estimates, lowering 4Q guidance and multiple downgrades.
GOOG +16.9% after beating 3Q revenue estimates substantially.
AMZN -11.4% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
ERICY -8.5% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q outlook.
GILD -6.5% after beating 3Q estimates, but missing optimistic estimates.
MMC +5.2% on speculation CEO Greenberg may be forced to quit, clearing the way for settlement talks with Spitzer.
XXIA +29.1% after beating 3Q estimates and Needham upgrade to Strong Buy.
APTM +17.9% on strong 3Q results.
AFCO +12.2% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
MCK +11.23% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and JP Morgan upgrade to Overweight.
SYNA +14.0% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
TRDO +13.5% after beating 3Q estimates substantially, reiterating 4Q outlook and Morgan Keegan upgrade to Outperform.
OSTK +18.2% after beating 3Q estimates, optimism over auction biz and short-squeeze.
KAR +10.1% after beating 3Q estimates.
WEBX -18.6% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
EYE -12.3% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
IFIN -14.6% after lowering 04 guidance and Hibernia Southcoast downgrade to Sell.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on CR, T, FISV and Outperform on KLAC, GILD, AMGN, XRX, GDT, SBC, HOT, SPG, MSFT, BAX. Citi SmithBarney initiated UTSI with a Buy, target $26. Citi reiterated Buy on BLS, target $32. Citi reiterated Buy on VZ, target $43. Citi reiterated Buy on MSFT, target $33. Citi reiterated Buy on NT, target $5. Citi reiterated Buy on CEY, target $44. Citi reiterated Sell on MEDI, target $19. Citi reiterated Buy on FDRY, target $15. Citi reiterated Buy on TXT, target $78. Citi reiterated Buy on ITT, target $92. Citi reiterated Buy on ACS, target $70.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly lower mid-day as the technology sector consolidates recent gains. The U.S. may seek to devalue the dollar against Asian currencies to ease trade deficits with China and other countries in the region, the NY Times reported. Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons and the capability of its missiles to reach Israel may prompt Israel to use preemptive military strikes, the LA Times said. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton wants to be secretary-general of the United Nations when Kofi Annan's term ends in 2006, UPI reported. President Bush is considering several changes to his cabinet if re-elected, including shifting National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice to run the Defense Department, the Washington Post reported. Demand for homes prices at $1 million and above in the San Francisco Bay Area remained strong in the third quarter as people sold and traded up, the San Francisco Chronicle said. San Francisco city workers were forced to campaign for Gavin Newsom before he was elected mayor in 2003, and threatened with loss of pay if they didn't help, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. California received a shipment of 271,740 doses of flu vaccine yesterday and will begin distributing the new supply Monday to county health departments, the San Francisco Chronicle said. Nextel Communications said third-quarter sales rose 18% and it boosted its 2004 forecast, Bloomberg reported. HCA, the largest U.S. hospital chain, said third-quarter profit fell 26% as payment increases for each admission slowed and collections from uninsured patients declined, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures are rising in NY after the release of a report showing that the Chinese economy grew more than expected last quarter, Bloomberg said. Shares of Google surged as much as 26% after quarterly profit more than doubled and the company said the market for Internet advertising shows no signs of slowing, Bloomberg reported.
Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as significant strength in my internet and security longs is offsetting weakness in my semi and semi-equipment longs. I have not traded and the Portfolio remains 125% net long. While the tone of the market is slightly negative today, most sectors are higher outside of technology. Consolidation of recent gains in tech is warranted and healthy. As well, the action in shares of Google will likely generate more interest by the public in the overall market. Finally, it appears that investors are not as fixated on the rising price of oil which is a big positive. I expect U.S. stocks to trade mixed into the close as short-covering and bargain-hunting offset rising energy prices.
NASDAQ 1,937.20 -.84%
Leading Sectors
HMOs +1.65%
Hospitals +1.55%
Utilities +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Services -1.23%
Telecom -1.35%
Semis -2.16%
Other
Crude Oil 55.29 +1.52%
Natural Gas 8.07 +4.85%
Gold 425.80 +.05%
Base Metals 112.86 -.86%
U.S. Dollar 85.95 -.09%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.0% +.24%
VIX 14.43 -.89%
Put/Call .64 -17.95%
NYSE Arms .85 -23.21%
Market Movers
BRCM -12.0% after beating 3Q estimates, lowering 4Q guidance and multiple downgrades.
GOOG +16.9% after beating 3Q revenue estimates substantially.
AMZN -11.4% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
ERICY -8.5% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q outlook.
GILD -6.5% after beating 3Q estimates, but missing optimistic estimates.
MMC +5.2% on speculation CEO Greenberg may be forced to quit, clearing the way for settlement talks with Spitzer.
XXIA +29.1% after beating 3Q estimates and Needham upgrade to Strong Buy.
APTM +17.9% on strong 3Q results.
AFCO +12.2% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
MCK +11.23% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and JP Morgan upgrade to Overweight.
SYNA +14.0% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
TRDO +13.5% after beating 3Q estimates substantially, reiterating 4Q outlook and Morgan Keegan upgrade to Outperform.
OSTK +18.2% after beating 3Q estimates, optimism over auction biz and short-squeeze.
KAR +10.1% after beating 3Q estimates.
WEBX -18.6% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
EYE -12.3% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
IFIN -14.6% after lowering 04 guidance and Hibernia Southcoast downgrade to Sell.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on CR, T, FISV and Outperform on KLAC, GILD, AMGN, XRX, GDT, SBC, HOT, SPG, MSFT, BAX. Citi SmithBarney initiated UTSI with a Buy, target $26. Citi reiterated Buy on BLS, target $32. Citi reiterated Buy on VZ, target $43. Citi reiterated Buy on MSFT, target $33. Citi reiterated Buy on NT, target $5. Citi reiterated Buy on CEY, target $44. Citi reiterated Sell on MEDI, target $19. Citi reiterated Buy on FDRY, target $15. Citi reiterated Buy on TXT, target $78. Citi reiterated Buy on ITT, target $92. Citi reiterated Buy on ACS, target $70.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly lower mid-day as the technology sector consolidates recent gains. The U.S. may seek to devalue the dollar against Asian currencies to ease trade deficits with China and other countries in the region, the NY Times reported. Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons and the capability of its missiles to reach Israel may prompt Israel to use preemptive military strikes, the LA Times said. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton wants to be secretary-general of the United Nations when Kofi Annan's term ends in 2006, UPI reported. President Bush is considering several changes to his cabinet if re-elected, including shifting National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice to run the Defense Department, the Washington Post reported. Demand for homes prices at $1 million and above in the San Francisco Bay Area remained strong in the third quarter as people sold and traded up, the San Francisco Chronicle said. San Francisco city workers were forced to campaign for Gavin Newsom before he was elected mayor in 2003, and threatened with loss of pay if they didn't help, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. California received a shipment of 271,740 doses of flu vaccine yesterday and will begin distributing the new supply Monday to county health departments, the San Francisco Chronicle said. Nextel Communications said third-quarter sales rose 18% and it boosted its 2004 forecast, Bloomberg reported. HCA, the largest U.S. hospital chain, said third-quarter profit fell 26% as payment increases for each admission slowed and collections from uninsured patients declined, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures are rising in NY after the release of a report showing that the Chinese economy grew more than expected last quarter, Bloomberg said. Shares of Google surged as much as 26% after quarterly profit more than doubled and the company said the market for Internet advertising shows no signs of slowing, Bloomberg reported.
Bottom Line: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as significant strength in my internet and security longs is offsetting weakness in my semi and semi-equipment longs. I have not traded and the Portfolio remains 125% net long. While the tone of the market is slightly negative today, most sectors are higher outside of technology. Consolidation of recent gains in tech is warranted and healthy. As well, the action in shares of Google will likely generate more interest by the public in the overall market. Finally, it appears that investors are not as fixated on the rising price of oil which is a big positive. I expect U.S. stocks to trade mixed into the close as short-covering and bargain-hunting offset rising energy prices.
Friday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AEE/1.29
BLC/.30
FO/1.18
HCA/.48
JBHT/.55
NTE/.26
NANO/.14
NXTL/.38
PLUG/-.16
SLB/.53
SUP/.20
WY/1.40
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DHR, MCK, TPX, UPS, PFE, ACS and Underperform on ELX, EW.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over economic reports from Japan and China. New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is considering criminal charges against William Gilman and other insurance brokerage executives from Marsh & McLennan, Business Week reported. George Economou, a Greek shipowner, plans to sell shares in a company that owns 15 so-called dry-bulk carriers on Nasdaq, Lloyd's List reported. New York Attorney General Spitzer has served subpoenas on four record companies as part of a probe into practices that may influence what songs are played on public radio, the NY Times said. 12,000 people, .04% of the 25.4 million Iraqi population, are part of the hard-core resistance in Iraq, the NY Times reported. Japan's services industry activity expanded in August as corporations increased spending on software and computer systems, Bloomberg reported. More than 62% of the estimated 8 million votes have been counted in Afghanistan with President Hamid Karzai leading with 56% of the vote, according to the election web site. China's industrial production grew 17% in the first nine months of the year, the government said in Beijing. China's economy expanded 9.5% in the first nine months of the year, the government said in Beijing, as lending restrictions curbed investment, Bloomberg reported. John Kerry took time to hunt geese in Ohio yesterday, hoping to attract the vote of sportsmen in the state, Bloomberg reported. BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, said it expects demand from China and India to keep commodity prices relatively high in the coming months, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.20%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly lower in the morning and then rise later in the day, led by technology shares, on short-covering, bargain-hunting and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
AEE/1.29
BLC/.30
FO/1.18
HCA/.48
JBHT/.55
NTE/.26
NANO/.14
NXTL/.38
PLUG/-.16
SLB/.53
SUP/.20
WY/1.40
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DHR, MCK, TPX, UPS, PFE, ACS and Underperform on ELX, EW.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over economic reports from Japan and China. New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is considering criminal charges against William Gilman and other insurance brokerage executives from Marsh & McLennan, Business Week reported. George Economou, a Greek shipowner, plans to sell shares in a company that owns 15 so-called dry-bulk carriers on Nasdaq, Lloyd's List reported. New York Attorney General Spitzer has served subpoenas on four record companies as part of a probe into practices that may influence what songs are played on public radio, the NY Times said. 12,000 people, .04% of the 25.4 million Iraqi population, are part of the hard-core resistance in Iraq, the NY Times reported. Japan's services industry activity expanded in August as corporations increased spending on software and computer systems, Bloomberg reported. More than 62% of the estimated 8 million votes have been counted in Afghanistan with President Hamid Karzai leading with 56% of the vote, according to the election web site. China's industrial production grew 17% in the first nine months of the year, the government said in Beijing. China's economy expanded 9.5% in the first nine months of the year, the government said in Beijing, as lending restrictions curbed investment, Bloomberg reported. John Kerry took time to hunt geese in Ohio yesterday, hoping to attract the vote of sportsmen in the state, Bloomberg reported. BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, said it expects demand from China and India to keep commodity prices relatively high in the coming months, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.20%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly lower in the morning and then rise later in the day, led by technology shares, on short-covering, bargain-hunting and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
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