Sunday, February 25, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Citigroup(C) plans to name American Express’(AXP) Gary Crittenden as CFO as soon as today, ending a monthlong search for Sallie Krawcheck’s successor.
- President Bush said his “market-based principles” have helped improve the nation’s Medicare system, and they can improve access to health insurance as well. Bush called for changes in the nation’s tax code to encourage more Americans to buy health insurance.
- KKR and Texas Pacific Group plan to include TXU Corp.(TXU) CEO C. John Wilder in their buyout of the largest power producer in Texas for as much as $44 billion.
- Caremark RX(CMX) today said it mailed to shareholders supplemental disclosures ordered by a judge, paving the way for a March 16 meeting to allow investors to vote on a merger with CVS Corp.(CVS).
- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Iran’s continued defiance of international demands that it stop uranium enrichment is stirring dissent within the Persian Gulf nation that is adding to diplomatic pressure.
- Hugo Chavez’s spending spree has turned the Venezuelan Bolivar into the world’s worst performing currency. Venezuelans and foreign companies are pulling money out of the country as a 200% increase in government spending over the past two years fuels the highest inflation rate in Latin America. Venezuelans have moved $8 billion out of the country on average every year since Chavez took office in 1999.
- The professionals most familiar with the so-called oil shortage know there’s an estimated 3 trillion barrels under land and sea. That’s why they’re making their biggest bets in drilling rigs where the scarcity is no illusion. The oil left underground in the US alone is enough to replace every barrel pumped from Iran for the next 20 years.
- The Democratic governors of West Virginia and Montana said Congress should establish a price floor for crude oil to assure investment in alternative energy supplies. The governors represent coal producing states and are supporters of technology that uses coal to produce transportation fuel, known as coal-to-liquid.
- Gilead Sciences(GILD) said its experimental HIV treatment in a new class of medication works in combination with other drugs as well as older therapies.
- Lam Research(LRCX), the maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, said it plans to buy back as much as $750 million worth of its stock.

Wall Street Journal:
- Station Casinos(STN) has accepted a revised $5.5 billion offer from a group led by the company’s founding family and Colony Capital LLC.
- The Tribune Co.’s(TRB) board is leaning toward a restructuring plan instead of a sale.

Chicago Tribune:
- Sam Zell, the Chicago billionaire who sold Equity Office Properties Trust(EOP) for $39 billion, may participate in the buyout of Tribune Co.(TRB) through an employee stock option plan.

NY Times:
- Iraqi Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr appears to be cooperating with the effort to restore order in Baghdad and aiding the Iraqi-US campaign against parts of his Mahdi Army militia. Sadr has signaled which militia members should be arrested and told others to flee.

Washington Post:
- Congressional Democrats, after campaigning against Republican ties to corporate lobbyists in the November elections, have mounted a major fundraising offensive featuring their key committee chairmen. The drive, which helps the Democrats build a reserve of funds as they try to increase narrow majorities in the House and Senate in the 2008 elections, includes a late-March event featuring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and 10 of the top panel chairmen. The ticket price for the March 21 dinner is $28,500 per couple and is designed to raise funds for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
- Citgo Petroleum Corp., a unit of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, is running ads in the US that some critics say promote Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Chavez is seizing oil and telecom assets to transform his country into a socialist state.
- Microsoft(MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates said the US must improve its education system and boost immigration of highly skilled workers in order to maintain an edge in innovation.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- San Francisco’s new $144 million federal building has been designed to create a healthy environment for workers while reducing the use of energy and natural resources.

San Jose Mercury News:
- Sun Microsystems(SUNW), Intel Corp.(INTC) and Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) are among large technology companies moving support jobs closer to the US as part of a growing trend known as “nearshoring,” citing business professors and corporate executives.

AP:
- Kurdish authorities have agreed to support a draft law to manage and share Iraq’s vast oil wealth, citing Massoud Barzani, president of the self-governing Kurdish administration in the north.

LA Times:
- Proposed laws to stop airlines from keeping passengers on grounded airplanes indefinitely may result in even longer waits for US travelers, citing industry analysts.

Financial Times:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) may take a minority stake in General Motors(GM) as payment for its Chrysler division.

London-based Sunday Express:
- Dow Chemical(DOW) may receive a takeover offer worth as much as $54 billion from private equity investors within the next few weeks.

Economic Daily News:
- Texas Instruments(TXN) may jointly develop new chip production technologies with a semiconductor maker in Taiwan, citing the company’s chief technology officer.
- Asustek Computer’s first-quarter sales may more than double from a year earlier to $6 billion because of rising shipments of game consoles and motherboards. Asustek is the world’s largest maker of computer motherboards.

Yonhap News:
- North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Il is preparing a collective leadership to rule the Stalinist country after his death, citing diplomats in Beijing. Kim no longer plans to hand over power directly to his eldest son Kim Jong Nam, who’s not interested in the role.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (UEIC), (WAG), (BAM), (FITB), (SAI), (RJET) and (NT).
- Made negative comments on (APPB).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (YHOO), target $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (HUM), target $80.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.12%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.18%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (BRCD)/.13
- (FLS)/.74
- (FMCN)/.51
- (GTRC)/1.07
- (MVL)/.10
- (MRVL)/.09
- (MRT)/.29
- (NTES)/.28
- (JWN)/.90
- (URI)/.63
- (WRNC)/.49
- (XMSR)/-.66

Upcoming Splits
- (RYAAY) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by metal and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch

There are a few economic reports of note and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - None of note

Tues. - Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Existing Home Sales, weekly retail sales

Wed. - MBA Mortgage Applications, Preliminary 4Q GDP, Preliminary 4Q Personal Consumption, Preliminary GDP Price Index, Preliminary 4Q Core PCE, Chicago Purchasing Manager, New Home Sales, EIA energy inventory data

Thur. - Challenger Job Cuts, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Construction Spending, Total Vehicle Sales

Fri. - Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Marvel Entertainment(MVL), GlobalSantaFe(GSF), Forest Oil(FST), Nordstrom(JWN), Brocade Communications(BRCD), Marvel Tech(MRVL), Netease.com(NTES), XM Satellite Radio(XMSR)

Tues. - Papa Johns(PZZA), Human Genome Sciences(HGSI), Deckers Outdoor(DECK), Federated Dept. Stores(FD), Sirius Satellite(SIRI), El Paso Corp.(EP), Dynegy Inc.(DYN), Kenneth Cole Productions(KCP), Hansen Natural(HANS), Conseco(CNO), CBRL Group(CBRL), Target Corp.(TGT), AutoZone(AZO), AutoDeck(ADSK), American Power Conversion(APCC), Cablevision SystemsCVC), Rowan Companies(RDC), Harrah’s Entertainment(HET), Vornado Realty Trust(VNO), Public Storage(PSA), TXU Corp.(TXU), Radio Shack(RSH), HJ Heinz(HNZ)

Wed. - Dollar Tree Stores(DLTR), Dress Barn(DBRN), Eaton Vance(EV), Forest Oil(FST), Liz Claiborne(LIZ), Ltd Brands(LTD), Martha Stewart(MSO), PetSmart(PETM), Sprint Nextel(S), SPX Corp.(SPW), Station Casinos(STN)

Thur. - Ciena Corp.(CIEN), Del Monte Foods(DLM), Dell Inc.(DELL), EchoStar Communications(DISH), First American Corp.(FAF), Flour Corp.(FLR), Gap Inc.(GPS), General Motors(GM), Hovnanian Enterprises(HOV), Kohl’s Corp.(KSS), Mastec Inc.(MTZ), McDermott Intl.(MDR), Omnivision Tech(OVTI), Pall Corp.(PLL), Revlon Inc.(REV), Smithfield Foods(SFD), Sotheby’s(BID), Staples(SPLS), Viacom Inc.(VIA/B), Wild Oats(OATS)

Fri. - Genesco Inc.(GCO), Novell Inc.(NOVL), Trex Co(TWP)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - JPMorgan SMID Cap Conference, (HON) Investor Conference, (BAC) Investor Day, (SNDK) Analyst Meeting, Fed’s Bies speaking

Tue. - Goldman Sachs Tech Symposium, Merrill Lynch Communications Forum, CSFB Networking/Comm. Equipment & Opticals Conference, Bear Stearns Healthcare Conference, Bear Stearns Retail/Restaurants/Consumer Conference

Wed. - Merrill Lynch Communications Forum, Keefe Bruyette & Woods Regional Bank Conference, UBS Nat Gas & Utilities Conference, Goldman Sachs Tech Symposium, Robert Baird Business Solutions Conference, Jeffries Internet Conference, Bear Stearns Retail/Restaurants/Consumer Conference, (NVLS) Mid-quarter Update, (UTX) Analyst Meeting, (HD) Analyst Meeting, Fed’s Geithner speaking

Thur. - CIBC Israeli Tech Equities Conference, UBS Nat Gas & Utilities Conference, CSFB Truck Builders Conference, Robert Baird Business Solutions Conference, Bear Stearns Retail/Restaurants/Consumers Conference, Wachovia Homebuilding Conference, CE Unterberg Towbin Healthcare & Tech Days, Needham Displays & Emerging Electronics Conference, Goldman Sachs Tech Symposium, Keefe Bruyette & Woods Regional Bank Conference, (COF) Annual Investor Conference

Fri. - CE Unterberg Towbin Healcare & Tech Days, Wachovia Homebuilding Conference, Fed’s Bernanke speaking

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on mostly positive earnings reports, buyout speculation, lower energy prices, short-covering and stable long-term rates. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,451.19 -.39%*

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-day % Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,451.19 -.39%
DJIA 12,647.48 -.92%
NASDAQ 2,515.10 +.72%
Russell 2000 826.64 +1.37%
Wilshire 5000 14,667.34 -.07%
Russell 1000 Growth 574.74 -.04%
Russell 1000 Value 835.61 -.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 709.24 -.70%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 970.76 +.58%
Morgan Stanley Technology 588.78 +.33%
Transports 5,158.93 +1.16%
Utilities 481.06 +1.27%
MSCI Emerging Markets 117.98 +.61%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 67,281 +1.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 44.0 +84.8%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 168.334 -2.0%
Total Put/Call 1.42 +86.8%
NYSE Arms 1.31 +16.96%
Volatility(VIX) 10.58 +3.52%
ISE Sentiment 101.0 -19.20%
AAII % Bulls 53.85 +13.2%
AAII % Bears 22.31 -28.2%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.14 +4.0%
Reformulated Gasoline 176.31 +9.96%
Natural Gas 7.75 +4.97%
Heating Oil 175.05 +7.22%
Gold 685.70 +1.82%
Base Metals 241.40 +3.8%
Copper 285.10 +6.6%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.67% -2 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 328,000 +.4%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.22% -8 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications -5.2%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.7%
Nationwide Gas $2.30/gallon +.05
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 4.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 139.30 +.29%
US Dollar Index 84.05 unch.
CRB Index 314.63 +3.56%

Leading Sectors
Semis +3.08%
Oil Service +2.51%
Disk Drives +2.03%
Steel +1.96%
Networking +1.40%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -1.55%
Drugs -1.56%
Airlines -2.0%
REITs -2.04%
Homebuilders -2.19%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Continue Healthy Consolidation, Slightly Lower into Final Hour

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, most sectors are declining and volume is about average. The last seven trading days have seen the major averages make their daily lows early in the day and then surge modestly into the close. This is healthy consolidating action. My intraday gauge of investor angst has been elevated all day, considering the mild losses in the broad market. Given a stabilizing 10-year and a reversal lower in oil, I wouldn't be surprised to see day No. 8 of this type of action. I continue to believe cyclicals, which have been this years' best performers, will underperform for a few months as gains are digested, 4Q economic growth is revised lower and 1Q growth comes in below average rates. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates, stable energy prices and more optimism in the technology sector.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Home prices are likely to remain around current levels rather than drop, according to Morgan Stanley economists.
- US Treasuries are rising, pushing the benchmark 10-year note’s yield to a five-week low.
- Motorola’s(MOT) biggest shareholders increased their stakes in recent months, signaling confidence in a company that is grappling with the exit of its mobile-phone unit head and demands by activist Carl Icahn.
- Goldcorp. Inc.(GG), the world’s third-largest gold producer by market value, said gold production in 2007 will rise 54% to 2.6 million ounces.

Wall Street Journal:
- Nymex Holdings(NMX), which operates the NY Merc, palns a share sale that might raise more than $1 billion for its owners.
- A growing number of US doctors are using computer software and getting rid of nurses, receptionists and waiting rooms to curtail costs to maintain basic traditional practices on their own.
- Global terrorism has added legal tactics to its armory to gain an edge in national and international courts and a moral advantage over opponents, David Rivkin and Lee Casey wrote. An al-Qaeda training manual instructs detained fighters to claim torture or abuse, a tactic used by detainees at Guantanamo Bay to generate demands from European and other officials to close the camp and release the inmates. So-called “lawfare” is also being used to discredit the legality of US military action and undermine domestic support for the war on terror, Rivkin and Casey wrote.
- Vietnam’s stock market index rose 145% in 2006 and it’s up another 44% so far this year, bringing the total market value of quoted companies in the Southeast Asian country to more than $15 billion. That’s still not much, but it’s been enough to attract the attention of a swarm of hedge funds. The funds have been buying into Vietnam-oriented closed-end funds, pushing some premiums above 50%. Vietnam’s stock boom is, however, showing signs of a bubble and foreign purchases of stocks in Vietnam last month exceeded those in Taiwan.
- Some mutual fund companies are hunting for leveraged buyout candidates, a practice which lets small investors profit from the private-equity boom.

NY Times:
- Air conditioners in India and southern China, which use refrigerants banned in Europe and being phased out in the US, are causing the ozone hole to remain larger than it otherwise would.

Washington Post:
- US Democrats want to ask the Senate next week to repeal the 2002 resolution authorizing the ousting of dictator Saddam Hussein and use of force in Iraq.
- Former US President Bill Clinton got paid $40 million in speaking fees during the past six years, citing financial disclosure statements.

NY Daily News:
- Crime in NYC has declined 10% this month, which may make it the safest February since monthly tracking began 13 years ago, citing Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly.

Times-Picayune:
- Marathon Oil(MRO) announced the contractors who will expand its Garyville, Louisiana, refinery’s capacity by 180,000 barrels a day to 425,000 barrels a day.