Stocks Finish Slightly Lower, Weighed Down by Financial, Airline and Gaming Shares

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In Play

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Low Volume Consolidation of Recent Gains

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Computer longs, Biotech longs and Software longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is slightly bearish as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is about average. Today’s overall market action is neutral. The VIX is rising 3.3% and remains above average at 20.8. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 152.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.01. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running slightly above average most of the day and is currently 1.04. Considering recent gains, financial sector news/weakness and another rise in energy prices, today’s broad market performance is even more impressive. True growth stocks are especially strong with many leaders posting substantial gains. (ISRG), one of my long-held long positions, is trading at session highs, rising .5%, after another sharp decline this morning. I suspect the lows are in for the stock, however I still plan to add to the position on any further unexpected meaningful weakness going forward. I still believe (ISRG) has much more upside from current levels over the long-term. Apple Inc.(AAPL), another one of my long-held longs, is surging 3.5% ahead of earnings later this week. While the stock is getting extended short-term, I still expect it to finish substantially above current levels by year-end. The 10-year swap spread is falling another 2.25 basis points today to 64.75 basis points over Treasuries. This is down from a high of 92.75 in early March and down 11.45 basis points in three days. There has been much made over the recent rise in the US-dollar based LIBOR rate to 2.92%. However, this rate is still down 281 basis points from a high of 5.73% in September of last year. According to Intrade.com, the odds traders place on the US economy falling into recession this year have dropped to 59.5% from 79.0% a few weeks ago. Nikkei futures indicate a -36 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +61 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and less economic pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) recommends investors sell the pound against the US dollar as the worst UK housing slump in 30 years will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates.
- Dennis Gartman, editor of the daily Gartman Letter, is “abandoning ship” on his positive gold outlook after three years, on expectations that efforts to contain food prices will curb demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.
- Corn fell the most in six months and soybeans dropped on expectations that warmer, drier weather will firm soggy fields in the US Midwest, helping farmers accelerate planting of the nation’s two biggest crops.
- Carlyle Group, the world’s second largest private-equity firm, is raising a $500 million collateralized loan obligation to buy high-risk, high-yield debt being sold by banks at discounted prices.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) trailing Baidu.com(BIDU) in China’s online search market, expects to process more local Web queries through mobile phones than computers by 2011, aided by an alliance with the nation’s largest wireless carrier.
- Hedge funds attracted $16.5 billion of new cash in the first quarter, the smallest inflows since the end of 2005.
- Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads rival Barack Obama 7 percentage points among likely voters in tomorrow’s Pennsylvania primary, a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll found.

Wall Street Journal:
- ECB-Political Split Could Damp the Euro. The euro could slip from its record highs against the dollar amid a schism between the European Central Bank and the Continent’s political leaders. As central bankers appear inclined to stand firm on rates, many politicians are looking for looser monetary policy and a weaker euro. “I still think that we are in pretty much the final stages of the dollar selloff,” said Adam Cole, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London.
- Macy’s(M) Aims to Tailor US Stores to Local Tastes.

NY Times:
- Marketers Try to Spread Ads Across Several Web Sites.

Washington Times:
- The Islamic Society of North America, a coalition of Muslim groups, is asking John McCain to stop using the term “Islamic” when identifying terrorists and extremists. “The hateful ideology which underpins bin Ladenism is properly described as radical Islamic extremism,” said Steve Schmidt, a McCain spokesman.

LA Times:
- Sony Corp.(SNE) is preparing to launch an online video service through its game console PlayStation 3 as early as this summer.

NY Post:
- Scores of hedge funds, already suffering through one of the poorest performance stretches in recent memory, got blasted last Thursday after one giant fund sold investments on the belief that the Fed was done cutting rates.

National Geographic:
- US Leads World in Wind-Power Growth.

AppleInsider:
- Apple(AAPL) said to have signed landmark 3G iPhone deal for Italy. Apple Inc.’s next generation iPhone will arrive in Italy in a matter of weeks under a landmark deal that will see handset sold through Telecom Italia Mobile without a contract and carrier lock.

Gallop.org:
- Americans Aren’t More Worried About Global Warming.

AP:
- Hybrid vehicle registrations in the US increased 38% last year after gas prices rose and showrooms offered more options, citing marketing-research provider RL Polk & Co. Overall, hybrid sales jumped even as total vehicle sales fell 3%. Toyota’s Prius remained the top-seller, capturing 51% of the market last year compared with 43% in 2006. Other hybrid models included Nissan Motor’s Altima, GM’s Saturn Aura and Toyota’s Lexus LS600h sedans and some sport utility vehicles. California had the most hybrid sales, followed by Florida, NY, Texas and Washington.

CBCnews:
- The backlash over billionaire hedge fund managers. Consider the way this money was made. Paulson and the rest of the hedge funds that made huge scores did so at the expense of homeowners and lenders, in what’s turning out to be a US housing crisis. Banks are in trouble, there are waves of layoffs playing out, and you’ve got a select few fund mangers out strutting their stuff. The politicians and tax collectors are reading about these billionaire money managers. Bragging about making a bundle, when so many in finance are struggling, that’s not so bright.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- Bundesbank Vice President Franz-Christoph Zeitler expects the German economy to slow this year as the global credit squeeze cools demand. The German economy will grow about 1.5% this year, down from 2.5% last year, he said.

Handelsblatt:
- 40% of top German managers now see negative effects on their own businesses form the strength of the euro against the dollar, as well as the financial and real estate crisis in the US.

Indian Express:
- India should extend a ban on futures trading in wheat, rice and lentils to prevent local prices from climbing, citing a recommendation from a government panel.

China Securities Journal:
- China may impose a new resource tax this year pegged to commodities prices, citing Shi Yaobin, the tax policy head at the finance ministry. The new plan, which will consider both volume and prices, “is mature,” the report said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Value -.97%

Sector Underperformers:

Airlines (-3.13%), Banks (-2.44%) and Gold (-2.02%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

WCBO, BPOP, UFCS, ALDN, MDTH, GFIG, AMLN, TTO and NTL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) LLY 2) AMLN 3) PEP 4) NCC 5) PGNX

Economic Releases

- None of note

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Growth (-.08%)

Sector Outperformers:

Alternative Energy (+.57%), Computer Hardware (+.42%) and HMOs (+.42%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

ARD, SNP, HMC, PTR, SGY, MTL, VMED, BLX, BOH, UFPT, IMCL, RACK, ASMI, HCSG, FFIC, UFPI, SNDK, JRCC, HAS, DGX, AME, EXM, NGT, CIR and JEF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) AMLN 2) NCC 3) MEDX 4) LVLT 5) SYK