BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:04 PM

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Currency forecasters are betting that the US dollar rally is just getting started. The currency will strengthen 2.5% to $1.50 per euro by year-end, according to the mean estimate of 39 firms surveyed by Bloomberg. “We’ve seen a very significant shift in Fed emphasis; they’re now clearly focused on inflation and the need to control inflation expectations,” said Ian Stannard, senior foreign-exchange strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate currency forecaster in a 2007 Bloomberg survey.
- Finance chiefs from the world’s richest nations spoke out in favor of a strong US dollar after the currency rose the most against the euro in three years. ``A strong dollar is in our nation's interest,'' U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told reporters today after meeting counterparts from the Group of Eight nations in Osaka, Japan. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said she was ``happy to hear Paulson clearly say how much the strong dollar policy is indispensable.''
- Finance ministers from the G-8 nations said surging food and fuel prices have replaced the credit squeeze as the biggest threat to the world economy.
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) shareholders rallied behind CEO Richard Fuld after a week-long decline in the stock, a management shake-up and the first quarterly loss since the investment bank went public. BlackRock Inc.(BLK), the largest publicly traded fund manager in the U.S., and Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg, the former CEO of American International Group Inc.(AIG), the world's biggest insurer, bought stakes in Lehman this week and said they remain optimistic about the company's prospects. Putnam Investments LLC, the mutual fund firm that oversees about $173 billion, invoked the ``strong franchise'' Fuld has built in his four-decade career.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) offered to buy $8 billion of Yahoo!(YHOO) shares at $35 each and acquire the Internet company’s search unit, a proposal that Yahoo spurned in favor of an agreement yesterday with rival Google Inc.(GOOG).
- The G-8 called on emerging markets to cease subsidizing the price of oil and food amid concern such support was propelling demand and prices higher.
- Arizona Senator John McCain condemned the US Supreme Court’s decision to allow detainees held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, access to federal courts. McCain called the court’s 5-4 ruling “one of the worst decisions in the history of this country,” warning that the court system would be clogged with petitions from the 270 inmates. He suggested that many of the inmates still present a threat. “Thirty of the people who have already been released from Guantanamo Bay have already tried to attack America again,” he said.
- China should tighten monetary policy, allow its currency to strengthen and try to cool the economy, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China.
- Senator Kent Conrad said he was given preferential treatment on a mortgage from Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC) and will write a $10,500 check to charity.
- The cost of protecting Asia-Pacific bonds from default declined, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 20 high-risk, high-yield borrowers outside Japan fell 10 basis points to 505 in Hong Kong, according to BNP Paribas SA.

Wall Street Journal:
-.US federal banking regulators are pressing lenders with “sagging” balance sheets to reduce their dividends and increase capital.
- Honda Refuels In The Race For Green Cars. CEO Fukui Prepares For Hydrogen Rollout.

MarketWatch.com:
- Faced with an increasingly losing battle against inflation, investors in India are firmly on the backfoot, and looking for an excuse to cheer themselves up.
- How to use the Web to save on grocery bills, dining out and more.
- In 2010, US airlines are smaller, maybe smarter. Industry could stabilize for the benefit of passengers and investors.

NY Times:
- Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest petroleum exporter, plans to boost its daily output next month by about 500,000 barrels to what may be its highest level ever – 10 million a day, citing analysts and traders. The move was seen as a sign that the Saudis are becoming increasingly nervous about both the political and economic effect of high oil prices. In recent weeks, soaring fuel costs have incited demonstrations and protests from Italy to Indonesia. Current oil prices are making alternative fuels more viable, threatening the long-term prospects of the oil-based economy. The Saudis have concluded that they need to disrupt the momentum that has been building in commodity markets. The Australian prime minister, Kevin Rudd, said this month that it was time “to apply the blowtorch to the OPEC organization.” In Washington, bipartisan support is also growing to pass a law allowing the Justice Department to engage in antitrust proceedings against OPEC producers accused of curbing supplies to drive up prices. Saudi Arabia is completing a huge expansion program in its oil industry that is expected to bring its production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by next year.
- An ambitious effort to take interactive television into Americans homes is expanding after a test of the system began at a single station last month.

The Hill:
- The Republican leaders in the Senate and House on Wednesday seized on remarks by presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama, who said this week that he would have preferred a “gradual adjustment” in oil prices. “Yesterday we heard the Democrat nominee for president suggest that rising gas prices aren’t the problem,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said. “If Obama really thinks consumers ought to shoulder higher energy costs while we make the transition to alternative fuels, he should answer a simple question: how high should gas prices go? $5? $6? $10 a gallon?” House Minority Leader John Boehner said.

Washington Post:
- In Europe, a Slide Toward Irrelevance. A mere two years ago, the British author and thinker Mark Leonard published a book titled "Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century." Today, one wonders to what degree Europe will even participate in the 21st century. It's not just the deadly blow struck by Ireland's rejection Thursday of the Lisbon Treaty reorganizing the European Union. I've spent six of the past eight years in the capital of the European Union, and I've noticed over this period a steady loss of self-confidence in Europe, a turning inward and a growing pessimism about the future. The pleasure Europeans take in the weak dollar and the high euro is a welcome distraction from deeply rooted fears that the Asian giants are overtaking and out-competing Europe in the international economy.

USA Today:
- Test Drive: Ford’s(F) new SUV is fun and sports Flex appeal.

CNNMoney.com:
- Early teardown: iPhone 3G could cost Apple(AAPL) as little as $100. The new iPhone costs Apple considerably less than the original to make. AT&T (T) and the other carriers could be subsidizing the $199 sale price by $200, according to Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, which means Apple may be charging its partners as much as $399 per phone. “If these numbers are true,” writes the Yankee Group’s Carl Howe, “the iPhone 3G could end up being the most profitable product Apple makes.”
- Apple(AAPL) and Intel(INTC): Best buddies.

Reuters:
- Martin Sullivan, CEO of AIG Inc.(AIG), has stepped down after three years at the helm of the world’s largest insurer.

Financial Times:
- China and the US are two of the largest energy producers and consumers in the world, so it is highly significant that the fourth China-US Economic Dialogue, which will be held in the US this week, will promote long-term co-operation in energy, the environment and other related areas.
- Hedge fund managers reacted with a mixture of surprise and indignation after the UK’s Financial Services Authority’s unexpected crackdown on short-selling during rights issues.

TimesOnline:
- Barclays Plc plans to raise $7.8 billion within two weeks through a share sale to sovereign wealth funds.

International Herald Tribune:
- GAIM International 2008, the global hedge fund industry conference that is being held form Tuesday through Thursday in Monaco, is taking place as the industry confronts poor returns and searches for a strategy for 2008.

Welt am Sonntag:
- Deutsche Telekom AG plans to sell the new version of Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone for as little as 1 euro to customers purchasing a two-year phone contract.

Herald Sun:
- Greenpeace declares war on coal. Greenpeace has called for all coal-fired power stations to be shut down by 2030 as part of a radical energy plan.

Yonhap News:
- The IMF may cut South Korea’s 2008 growth forecast to 4% because of high inflation and slowing global growth, citing the fund’s deputy managing director. The Washington-based fund in April forecast South Korea’s economy would expand 4.2% this year, compared with 5% growth in 2007.

News:
- Austrian Prime Minister Rudd will pressure Asian governments to remove fuel subsidies that “distort” the demand for petrol and push up prices.

Tokyo Shimbun:
- Toyota Motor(TM) is planning to introduce six new hybrid vehicles in Japan between 2009 and 2013. New autos will included minivans and sedans, with the first models to be released being mid-sized Lexus and Toyota sedans.

Emirates News Agency:
- Inflation in Abu Dhabi, the largest of the seven members of the United Arab Emirates, accelerated to 11.5% in the first quarter, driven by housing rents and food prices. Accelerating inflation would affect the UAE’s ability to attract foreign investment, according to the report.

Middle East Economic Digest:
- Royal Dutch Shell Plc is close to signing a joint venture agreement with Iraq’s South Gas Co. to develop gas in the south of the country, citing an Iraq oil ministry official. The venture will last five years and involve gathering at least 600 million cubic feet a day of gas that is currently flared from major oil fields, and possibly the construction of liquefied natural gas facilities.

Al-Jareeda:
- Kuwait MPs Submit Bill to Restrict Oil Output. Kuwait’s opposition lawmakers submitted a bill in parliament today that stipulates the emirate’s annual oil output shouldn’t exceed 1% of its proven reserves.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (SNDK), (ZMH), (AIZ), (FCX), (UPS), (T) and (CFC).
- Made negative comments on (SHPGY).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (RIMM), target $165.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.50% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (TITN)/.13
- (LEH)/-.32
- (ADBE)/.46

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Empire Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to -1.5 versus -3.2 in May.

9:00 am EST
- Net Long-term TIC Flows for April are estimated at $63.3 billion versus $80.4 billion in March.

1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for June is estimated at 19 versus 19 in May.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Bernanke speaking, Fed’s Lacker speaking, (SSW) analyst meeting and BIO International Convention could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 10:18 AM

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.

There are several economic reports of note and a number of significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – Empire Manufacturing, Net Long-term TIC Flows, NAHB Housing Market Index

Tues. – Current Account Balance, Producer Price Index, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, weekly retail sales reports

Wed. – Weekly EIA Energy Inventory report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report

Thur. – Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Leading Indicators

Fri. – None of note

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – Titan Machinery(TITN), Lehman Brothers(LEH), Adobe Systems(ADBE)

Tues. – Goldman Sachs(GS)

Wed. – Factset Research(FDS), Best Buy(BBY), Commercial Metals(CMC), Carmax(KMX), Morgan Stanley(MS)

Thur. – JMSmucker(SJM), Carnival Corp.(CCL), Circuit City(CC), Actuant Corp.(ATU)

Fri. – Ameron Intenational(AMN)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – Fed’s Bernanke speaking, Fed’s Lacker speaking, (SSW) analyst meeting, BIO International Convention

Tue. – (MAT) analyst conference, (FSL) analyst meeting, (WTM) investor meeting, CSFB Global Nanotech Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, BIO International Convention, Merrill Lynch Transports Conference

Wed. – Fed’s Yellen speaking, (PLXS) investor day, (GET) analyst day, BIO International Convention, Merrill Lynch Transports Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Deutsche Bank Consumer/Food Retail Conference

Thur. – (MET) investor day, (TD) analyst meeting, (ARO) analyst day, (HIG) investor day, (MCK) analyst meeting, BIO International Convention, Deutsche Bank Consumer/Food Retail Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, BMO Capital Emerging Media Forum, , Merrill Lynch Transports Conference, CSFB Consumer Conference, Bank of America Homebuilders Conference

Fri. – (WU) investor conference, BIO International Convention

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on a rising US dollar, diminishing credit market angst, a decline in energy prices, less economic pessimism, a bounce in emerging market shares, a bounce in financial stocks, bargain-hunting and short-covering. My trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 12:47 AM

S&P 500 1,360.02 -.05%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Friday, June 13, 2008

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 9:01 PM

Indices
S&P 500 1,360.02 -.05%
DJIA 12,307.35 +.80%
NASDAQ 2,454.50 -.81%
Russell 2000 733.61 -.92%
Wilshire 5000 13,813.22 -.28%
Russell 1000 Growth 585.01 +.10%
Russell 1000 Value 724.24 -.50%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 691.19 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 944.37 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 596.01 -1.15%
Transports 5,148.82 -1.94%
Utilities 524.05 +2.48%
MSCI Emerging Markets 140.70 -4.17%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 53,308 -10.1%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -507
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.0 -27.6%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 218,484 +.97%
Total Put/Call .91 -18.75%
OEX Put/Call 1.17 -9.3%
ISE Sentiment 130.0 +7.26%
NYSE Arms .68 -70.88%
Volatility(VIX) 21.22 -10.70%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.66 +3.39%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,393.67 -4.33%
AAII % Bulls 31.25 -28.13%
AAII % Bears 53.57 +40.83%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 134.69 -2.52%
Reformulated Gasoline 346.43 -1.86%
Natural Gas 12.63 -.39%
Heating Oil 383.80 -3.23%
Gold 872.10 -2.78%
Base Metals 236.22 -.61%
Copper 359.10 -1.14%
Agriculture 470.28 +10.97%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.26% +35 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 2.52% +2 basis points
TED Spread .85 -1 basis point
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 109.24 -1.15%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 230.44 +1.36%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +6.70 +226.42%
Fed Fund Futures 20.0% chance of 25 hike, 80.0% chance of no move on 6/25
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 74.25 -.77%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 371,500 +.7%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.32% +23 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 557,100 +10.91%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.1%
Nationwide Gas $4.07/gallon +.08/gallon.
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 2.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 132.50 +.08%
US Dollar Index 74.09 +2.43%
Baltic Dry Index 10,142 -13.23%
CRB Index 445.87 +.99%

Best Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +.10%

Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Value -1.3%

Leading Sectors
Restaurants +2.91%
Utilities +2.48%
Software +2.39%
Retail +2.22%
Medical Equipment +.87%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -4.30%
HMOs -4.88%
Gaming -5.20%
Gold -6.6%
Airlines -8.06%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish at Session Highs, Boosted by I-Banking, Airline, Retail, Construction, Technology Shares

Posted by Gary .....at 4:02 PM

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