Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on profit-taking, rising global growth fears, less US economic optimism, more shorting, rising Eurozone debt angst, less financial sector optimism and high energy prices. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,378.53 +.60%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,378.53 +.60%
• DJIA 13.029.26 +1.40%
• NASDAQ 3,000.45 -.36%
• Russell 2000 804.05 +.97%
• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 359.36 +.78%
• Russell 1000 Growth 652.54 +.32%
• Russell 1000 Value 674.33 +.97%
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 804.75 +1.45%
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 975.94 +.03%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 689.38 -.55%
• Transports 5,234.25 +.72%
• Utilities 460.75 +1.91%
• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.71 +.36%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.34 -.30%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,026.47 +1.35%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 817.42 +.67%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias 539.07 unch.

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 143,206 +1.02%
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -30 -22
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 23.0 -36.8%
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 213,555 +8.08%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,570,513 +.47%
• Total Put/Call .87 -7.45%
• OEX Put/Call 1.15 -58.48%
• ISE Sentiment 113.0 +13.0%
• NYSE Arms 1.41 -25.40%
• Volatility(VIX) 17.44 -10.79%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 66.0 -.26%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.68 -1.33%
• Smart Money Flow Index 11,016.39 -.86%
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.584 Trillion unch.
• AAII % Bulls 31.18 +10.80%
• AAII % Bears 33.84 -18.58%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 301.20 -.54%
• Crude Oil 103.88 +.52%
• Reformulated Gasoline 314.27 -6.16%
• Natural Gas 1.93 -3.26%
• Heating Oil 313.76 -1.31%
• Gold 1,642.80 -1.02%
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 213.04 -1.03%
• Copper 370.65 +2.16%
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 402.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 148.40 USD/Ton -.67%
• Lumber 275.70 +1.99%
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,501.29 -1.56%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.2% -20 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3104 +6.31%
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 109.79 +.51%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.0 -9.7 points
• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/25
• US Dollar Index 79.14 -.92%
• Yield Curve 169.0 -2 basis points
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.96% -2 basis points
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.858 Trillion +.29%
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.53 +3.26%
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 217.0 -.52%%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 282.52 +1.11%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 291.50 +.55%
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 119.0 -.75%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 83.91 +.02%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 647.0 +3 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25% -2 basis points
• TED Spread 40.0 +1.5 basis points
• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 +.25 basis point
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -47.50 +3.25 basis points
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 98.61 -1.52%
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 254.89 +3.15%
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 265.29 -.16%
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 187.0 +4 basis points
• M1 Money Supply $2.239 Trillion -.17%
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 932.60 +.40%
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 374,800 +6,300
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.90% +2 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 725.40 +6.87%
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.4 +1.4 points
• Weekly Retail Sales +3.60% -50 basis points
• Nationwide Gas $3.88/gallon -.02/gallon
• U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 21.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 1,067 +9.77%
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 -11.76%
• Rail Freight Carloads 234,157 +1.30%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.33%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.32%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +3.24%
• Drugs +2.96%
• Airlines +2.64%
• HMOs +2.60%
• REITs +2.52%

Lagging Sectors

• Gold & Silver -2.10%
• Oil Tankers -2.38%
• Disk Dives -2.49%
• Semis -2.70%
• Education -2.95%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)

• HGSI, CHSI, SSYS, SXCI, SYNT, BMI, KNOL, CVI, WST, IGTE and ISRG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• ABD, EGOV, MAT, BAX, LTM, ILMN, CHK and GNTX

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings, Euro Bounce, Short-Covering

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.55 -4.41%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 +62.50%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -20.20%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.43 +8.73%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.78 -.25%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 254.92 +2.1%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 282.44 +.23%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 265.39 -1.29%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 +.5 basis point
  
• TED Spread 40.0 unch.
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -47.50 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 169.0 unch.
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $148.40/Metric Tonne -.07%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.0 -.3 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +4 basis points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating a +33 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany
  

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Medical, Biotech and Retail sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish, as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher, back to its 50-day moving-average, despite rising Eurozone debt angst, less financial/tech sector optimism, rising energy prices, weakness in some key market leaders, rising global growth fears and less US economic optimism. On the positive side, Oil Tanker, Software, Biotech, Drug, Construction, Homebuilding, REIT and Road & Rails shares are especially strong, rising more than +.75%. Small-caps are outperforming. Copper is rising +1.7% and Lumber is gaining +.8%. Major European indices are rising around +.75%, led by a +1.9% gain in Spain. However, Spanish equities are still -2.9% lower on the week and down -17.8% ytd. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is rising +1.1%. The Portugal sovereign cds is down -4.95% to 1,066.78 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is down -2.4% to 126.90 bps. On the negative side, Coal, Computer, Semi, Disk Drive and I-Banking shares are under notable pressure, falling more than -1.0%. Tech and financial shares have traded poorly throughout the day. Cyclicals are underperforming. Oil is rising +1.1%. The 10-year yield is unch. at 1.96%. Major Asian indices were mostly lower overnight, led down by a -1.5% decline in Taiwan. The Germany sovereign cds is gaining +4.7% to 86.66 bps(+26% in 6 days), the Spain sovereign cds is gaining +1.1% to 503.0 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is rising +2.4% to 264.99 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is gaining +1.7% to 463.81 bps, the China sovereign cds is rising +1.7% to 113.05 bps and the Japan sovereign cds is up +2.4% to 95.0 bps. US Rail Traffic continues to soften. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its late-December peak despite investor perceptions that the US economy is accelerating. Moreover, the Citi US Economic Surprise Index has fallen back to mid-Oct. levels. Lumber is -8.0% since its Dec. 29th high despite the better US economic data, improving sentiment towards homebuilders and the broad equity rally. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010 despite expectations for a strong spring home selling season. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -55.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -40.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -18.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are right near a new record and have risen +702.0% ytd. China's March copper imports fell -4.6% on the month. Singapore Electronics exports decelerated to a gain of +2.8% in March from a +23.3% gain in February. Semis/Disk Drives are under notable pressure, despite the jump in (MSFT). The recent weak/erratic technical action in shares of (AAPL), a market-leader and the largest company in the world, remains a concern. Long AAPL. Bonds still trade too well. There remains a fairly high level of complacency regarding the rapidly deteriorating situation in Europe, in my opinion. The ongoing significant rise in German cds remains a red flag. I doubt the results of the French election over the weekend will result in near-term market weakness. However, a Hollande victory will likely be viewed as a large market negative over the intermediate-term as the debt crisis intensifies. For the recent equity advance to regain traction, I would expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, a further subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, less US economic optimism, weakness in some key market leaders, rising energy prices, rising global growth fears and less tech/financial sector optimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Sarkozy-Hollande Runoff Shaping Up in Fight on Finances. French President Nicolas Sarkozy headed South and his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande went East on the last day of campaigning before the first round of voting, courting supporters of other candidates whose backing they need in the runoff. Hollande and Sarkozy are almost certain to top the 10- person field April 22, putting them into the May 6 decider.
• G-20 Says IMF Wins $430 Billion Funding Boost Amid Europe Crisis. Governments committed more than $430 billion in fresh money to the International Monetary Fund to help it protect the world economy against deepening debt turmoil in Europe. The near-doubling of the fund’s firepower was announced after Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers met today in Washington. While the U.K. and Australia were among those making specific pledges, Brazil said emerging markets would condition their help on being handed more power at the IMF.
• Posco Profit Falls on Rising Material Costs, Waning Steel Demand. Posco, the world’s third-biggest steelmaker by output, said first-quarter profit fell 42 percent because of rising raw-material costs and waning demand for the metal used in cars, ships and buildings. “The overall steel sector in the region remains in the doldrums and the demand picture is still pretty bleak,” Lee Jin Woo, who helps manage $3.5 billion in equities at Seoul-based KTB Asset Management Co., said before the earnings announcement. “While margins may improve slightly in the second quarter as raw material prices drop, the key question is if the company can cut discounts to customers, which appears to be a very difficult task for now.”
  
• Oil Rises First Time in Three Days. Crude for May delivery rose as much as $1.12 to $103.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $103.34 as of 1:39 p.m. London time. It fell to $102.27 yesterday, the lowest close since April 10. The May contract, which expires today, is up 0.5 percent this week. The more-actively traded June future rose $1.02 to $103.74 a barrel. Brent oil for June settlement was at $118.98 a barrel, up 98 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
• Thousands Rally in Egypt After Presidential Candidates Banned. Thousands of Egyptians poured into Cairo’s Tahrir Square amid increasing political tensions ahead of May presidential elections, the first since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. The Muslim Brotherhood, whose political party controls the largest bloc in parliament, called for rallies to “defend the revolution” in an April 18 statement in which it criticized a decision to disqualify its main nominee, Khairat el-Shater, from the presidential race. Other groups and parties including the April 6 movement called for separate protests under the slogan “No constitution under military rule.” “Say it, don’t be afraid, SCAF must leave,” some of the protesters chanted, referring to the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.
• 9 US Banks Said to Be Examined on Overdraft Fees. Two years after regulators gave Americans more power to manage overdrafts of their checking accounts, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is reviewing bank practices to determine if the crackdown went far enough. The agency, which will decide by the end of the year whether to write new rules, is scrutinizing nine banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and Bank of America Corp., said four people briefed on the examination.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hollande Ramps Up ECB Rhetoric. French Socialist presidential candidate François Hollande on Friday pressed the European Central Bank to cut interest rates and lend directly to euro-zone member countries to bolster economic activity, in the latest escalation of campaign rhetoric targeting the euro-zone institution. On the final day of the election campaign before Sunday's first-round vote, Mr. Hollande detailed how the ECB could play a bigger role in boosting growth.
  
• Once Reviled, Hedge-Fund Manager Rebounds. Rapidly hitting the buttons on his calculator, John Devaney totes up some of the things he had to jettison as his hedge fund crashed: a $36 million jet, $10 million helicopter, $45 million art collection and $22 million yacht called "Positive Carry," named for an investment strategy that rakes in easy money.
• Mike Mayo Cuts Bank of America(BAC) to Sell. The CLSA analyst is cutting his rating to sell, saying the first quarter was “likely as good as it gets.” BofA’s first-quarter numbers were viewed as rather mixed yesterday, as strong underlying results remained clouded with accounting charges. And Mayo sees things getting worse. He doesn’t see management, or its cost-cutting initiative “Project New BAC” as helping.

CNBC.com:

• Democrats Joining GOP Fight Against Obama on Oil Pipeline. President Obama is finding himself increasingly boxed in on the Keystone pipeline fight as more Congressional Democrats are joining Republicans in backing the project, which has strong labor support and could generate significant numbers of jobs in economically hard-hit states.
• With Vote Days Away, Outlook for Sarkozy Dims.
  

Business Insider:

• This Apple Exec Is On The Prowl For Acquisitions – M&A Source. Two targets jump to mind: Pinterest and Path.
• One of the Best Economic Indicators There Is, Is Rapidly Turning South. (graph) Good catch from Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capitalism: Rail data, which is some of the most reliable economic data there is, is rapidly turning south. Now just 12 of the 20 categories of goods that get shipped by rail are positive year on year. From the AAR:
• LEAKED STRATFOR EMAILS: Democrats Manipulated The 2008 Election Results. John McCain's 2008 campaign staff allegedly had evidence that Democrats stuffed ballot boxes in Pennsylvania and Ohio on election night, but McCain chose not to pursue voter fraud, according to internal Stratfor emails published by WikiLeaks.
• The Rumor That Won't Die: Facebook(FB) to Buy Bing From Microsoft(MSFT).
• The 16 Stocks That People Are Shorting Like Crazy.
• Nomura: Here's The Real Reason Why Chinese Metal Demand Can't Last.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Oui Monsieur La Difference.
• Spanish 10-Year Briefly Crosses 6.0% and Portugal Active.
• Europe Is Now Red For The Year.
• Food Stamp Nation. (video)
  

Forexlive:

• ECB's Nowotny Says Inflation May Overshoot Target For A Period. ECB only uses bond buying (SMP) program with extreme caution. Doesn’t see bond buying situation currently. Spanish programs need time to produce results.

Engadget:

• Senate Black Box Bill Could See 2015 Car Models Ship With Data Recorders. Black boxes aren't just for airplanes anymore, it seems. Though car companies have been installing the devices at their discretion since the early aughts, a new bill, ominously entitled Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century, has just passed Senate approval containing a provision that would mandate the inclusion of these Event Data Recorders in all automobiles produced from 2015 and on.

Reuters:

• Global concerns drive investors into bonds - EPFR. Fund investors favored bonds over equities in the latest week as Spain's borrowing costs rose and rekindled concerns over the euro zone, data from EPFR Global showed on Friday. Global bond funds absorbed a net $4.67 billion in inflows while global equity funds attracted a meager $52 million in the week ended April 18, EPFR Global's Director of Research Cameron Brandt said.
• Patriot Coal(PCX) Idles Kentucky Mine, Stock Drops.
• Spain Under Pressure, Italy Faces Market Test. Spanish and Italian government bonds came under pressure on Friday as Spain's auction this week failed to ease investor concerns over Madrid's fiscal health, while Italy goes to the market next week for the first time since it revised its budget. Spanish 10-year yields topped 6 percent on Friday before retreating after upbeat German economic data but a break higher was seen likely as investors worried about Madrid's ability to deal with its fiscal problems.

Telegraph:

• Britain Falls for Lagarde's Charms and Coughs Up Another £10bn. Eurozone leaders seem to think that once they've erected a firewall big enough to convince markets they cannot break the euro, and pushed through structural reforms designed to restore competitiveness to the periphery, then the crisis will go away. This I can guarantee; it won't.

Herald Sun:

• Rio Tinto(RIO) Casts Doubt on Queensland's Coal Export Plan. RIO TINTO may have spoiled the Queensland Government's plans to aggressively ramp up coal exports after the miner admitted late on Friday it had abandoned talks for a port expansion in the far north of the state. The $9 billion expansion of Abbot Point coal export harbour to nine terminals may be jeopardised by Rio's decision to withdraw from the project and also hamper the ambitions of other miners in the area, including billionaire Clive Palmer's Waratah Coal. The world's third biggest miner cited higher costs and a shift in global economic markets as the reason for opting out. UBS Securities analyst Glyn Lawcock told BusinessDaily the decision was not surprising as he estimated Rio's resources in the area were insufficient to justify the expense, now that coal prices had softened.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.05%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.90% 2) Semis -1.81% 3) Coal -1.73%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CMG, TPX, SNDK, ALTR, MLNX, SCSS, RCL, CLUB, WDC, AAPL, INTU, WIFI, RVBD, EZPW, IBKR, CPHD, OTEX, EXPD, AVGO, MFRM, SWKS, SSYS, FCFS, MEOH, CTEL, CRUS, UTEK, PGR, CHE, GNI, ETH, CSH and FSL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UPL 2) CTRP 3) LDK 4) OIH 5) RVBD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RVBD 2) SNDK 3) BAC 4) ALTR 5) INTU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume