Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, US "fiscal cliff" concerns, rising food/energy prices, rising Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, more shorting and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,406.58 -.32%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,406.58 -.32%
  
• DJIA 13,090.84 -.51%
  
• NASDAQ 3,066.97 -.09%
  
• Russell 2000 812.09 +.36%
  
• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 350.76 -.13%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 658.20 -.21%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 690.34 -.31%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 815.82 +.20%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 941.91 -1.20%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 675.73 -.99%
  
• Transports 5,007.49 -2.17%
• Utilities 468.21 -.91%
• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 77.56 +.26%
• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.26 -1.88%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,036.50 -.20%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 796.69 +.08%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias 539.54 unch.

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 151,414 +.43%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -94 -55
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 27.6 -52.0%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 249,262 +8.18%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,511,314 +2.80%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 +7.14%
  
• OEX Put/Call .93 -7.0%
  
• ISE Sentiment 111.0 +13.27%
  
• NYSE Arms .75 -1.32%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 17.47 +15.09%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.90 +3.73%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.94 +6.43%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 11,489.19 +.97%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.571 Trillion -.10%
  
• AAII % Bulls 34.3 -18.3%
  
• AAII % Bears 32.6 +26.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 309.59 +1.16%
  
• Crude Oil 96.47 +.36%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 297.28 +2.27%
  
• Natural Gas 2.80 +2.34%
  
• Heating Oil 318.02 +1.75%
  
• Gold 1,687.60 +.85%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 196.35 -.95%
  
• Copper 345.70 -.85%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 307.67 USD/Ton unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 89.40 USD/Ton -10.1%
  
• Lumber 283.0 -3.25%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,752.76 +1.10%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +.6% +70 basis points
  
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0918 -6.42%
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 111.18 +.29%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 +5.9 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/13
  
• US Dollar Index 81.21 -.50%
  
• Yield Curve 133.0 -9 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.55% -13 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.795 Trillion -.46%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.0 -4.44%
  
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 235.0 +1.96%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 230.50 -1.49%
  
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 240.83 +1.34%
  
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 101.40 -7.87%
• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 399.50 -15.3%
  
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 452.0 +15 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26% -4 basis points
  
• TED Spread 34.75 +1.25 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -1.25 basis points
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 101.93 +.08%
  
• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 248.28 -.72%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 246.64 -1.46%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 122.0 -9 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $2.321 Trillion -.91%
  
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,031.80 +.70%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 370,300 +2,300
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.59% -7 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 786.10 -4.29%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -47.3 +.1 point
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +1.80% -10 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.83/gallon +.10/gallon
  
• U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 32.0% above normal
• Baltic Dry Index 703.0 -1.95%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 248,364 +.46%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.50%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.32%

Leading Sectors

• HMOs +1.21%
  
• Hospitals +1.14%
• Homebuilders +.87%
• Gold & Silver +.82%
• Defense +.76%

Lagging Sectors

• Road & Rail -1.97%
• Disk Drives -2.07%
  
• Steel -3.31%
• Oil Tankers -5.41%
• Coal -7.83%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)

• KNXA, MOV, P, JOSB, DFRG, MFRM, ESL, YELP, CYBX, LXK, SPLK, OXM, HTZ, DTG and CLW
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• LAYN, TFM, ZUMZ, PROJ, GMAN, VRA, TNGO, CIEN and DY
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Global Central Bank Action/Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Commodity Sector Strength, Euro Bounce

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  
• Volume: Light
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.46 -2.08%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +1.92%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -15.09%
  
• NYSE Arms .56 -67.45%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 101.82 bps -1.08%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 248.28 bps -1.4%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 230.50 -1.33%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.65 -2.5%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -.25 basis point
  
• TED Spread 33.25 +.25 basis point
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.75 +1.25 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 134.0 -3 basis points
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $89.40/Metric Tonne +.79%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.4 +.6 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -4 basis points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
  

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.37%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -3.50% 2) Disk Drives -2.82% 3) Alt Energy -2.71%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ELP, CIG, FUN, IPGP, PTR, GMAN, ZUMZ, SBS, BPT, CIG, ELP, PTR, CLVS, FB, SQQQ and NS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MT 2) RCL 3) VALE 4) DIA 5) HOG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SE 2) C 3) AKAM 4) PEP 5) LAYN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.79%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.69% 2) Steel +1.93% 3) Education +1.66%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OVTI, FSLR, SPLK, SAI, TKC, MCP, SRPT, FWLT, SAI and GLW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLV 2) OVTI 3) SWKS 4) BRCD 5) SRPT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LCC 2) GLW 3) LMT 4) F 5) MGM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume