Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.54%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +.94% 2) HMOs +.19% 3) Computer Hardware +.15%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NIHD, CALL, CONN, OMPI and UNXL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DF 2) ADT 3) EWY 4) TMO 5) HK
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AN 2) ATML 3) WAG 4) ALK 5) ROK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Spain Says 2014 Taxes to Depend on EU Verdict on Deficit Targets. Spain’s government is waiting for the result of negotiations with the European Union on its budget deficit goals before deciding on its tax policy for 2014. ’’Tax decisions for 2014 haven’t been taken yet and will obviously depend on negotiations with the European Commission and other EU partners,’’ Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said during a conference in Madrid yesterday. ’’It will all depend on the deficit targets that are established and on their underlying economic assumptions.’’

• EU Financial Transaction Tax Seen Costing Britain $6 Billion. The European Union’s planned tax on financial transactions could add 3.95 billion pounds ($6 billion) to the cost of issuing U.K. government debt, according to a report commissioned by the City of London Corporation.

• Verizon(VZ) Denies Report That It’s Considering a Bid for Vodafone(VOD). Verizon Communications Inc. denied that it’s considering a bid for Vodafone Group Plc, disputing a report that said it was discussing a plan with AT&T Inc. to make a joint offer for the U.K. carrier. 

• Euro Remains Lower Before ECB Meeting; Aussie Dollar Advances. The euro remained lower following a drop yesterday amid speculation the European Central Bank will use its meeting tomorrow to signal future economic stimulus.

• Asia Soaring Wages Stoke Inflation as Factory Costs Rise.

• Suntech Unit Bankruptcy Had Roots in Deadbeat Customers. Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP), forced to put its Chinese solar unit into bankruptcy last month, began that slide into insolvency in 2009 when customers linked to the founder couldn’t pay their bills and the company booked the sales as revenue anyway, regulatory filings show. 

• Asian Stocks Drop a Third Day, led by Raw-Material Shares. Asian stocks dropped for a third day as a decline in shares of raw-material producers offset a surge in Japanese equities as the central bank began a two-day policy meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.2 percent to 133.58 as of 11:27 a.m in Tokyo, reversing an earlier advance of as much as 0.3 percent.

• Kim Vows Increased Climate-Change Role to Help Ease Poverty. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim vowed to boost the lender’s contribution to easing the effects of climate change as part of a new goal to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. Helping mitigate shocks, including those caused by global warming, is one of the conditions needed to reach the poverty reduction target, Kim said in a speech at Georgetown University in Washington today. Also required is sustained fast growth in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and reduced income inequality, he said. 

• WTI Crude Drops as U.S. Oil Stockpiles Gain. West Texas Intermediate fell for the second time in three days after an industry-funded report showed U.S. crude stockpiles increased the most in four weeks and a government order prevented the restart of a pipeline to the Texas Gulf Coast. Futures slipped as much as 0.7 percent in New York after climbing 0.1 percent yesterday.

• Iron Ore Prices Seen Falling Through Q3 2014 on Supply, NAB Says. New iron ore supply outpaces increases in steel output and will probably push prices lower through third quarter of 2014, National Australia Bank says in report today. Prices to fall to $115/t in final quarter this year vs $127/t in second quarter, analysts James Glenn and Rob Brooker say. Forecasts $100/t in third and final quarters of 2014.

• Obama Control-Tower Shutdowns Spur Mounting Airport Suits. Airports that serve Ohio State University and the headquarters of State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. joined a lawsuit offensive to stop the U.S. from shutting air-traffic control operations as part of government- wide spending cuts. Since the first suits were filed in federal appeals courts in Manhattan and Washington last week, at least eight more airports brought cases challenging closures scheduled to begin April 7. They include the Central Illinois Regional Airport in Bloomington, where State Farm is based, which handled more than 579,000 passengers in 2011, and the Ohio State University airport in Columbus. “I’ve never seen an issue galvanize people like this,” Spencer Dickerson, executive director of the Alexandria, Virginia-based Contract Tower Association, said in an interview. “The administration made the closing of control towers the poster-child for sequestration.”  

• Kerry: North Korean Reactor Restart Provocative Act. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said it would be a “serious step” if North Korea violates its obligations by following through on a threat to restart nuclear facilities shut by a 2007 disarmament accord. The U.S. is committed to defending itself and its allies and “will not be subject to irrational or reckless provocation” by North Korea, Kerry said yesterday after meeting in Washington with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung Se. “If they restart their nuclear facility at Yongbyon, that is in direct violation of their international obligations,” Kerry said. “It would be a provocative act.”

Wall Street Journal: 

• Seoul Seeks Ability to Make Nuclear Fuel. South Korea is pressing the Obama administration for U.S. permission to produce its own nuclear fuel, a move that nonproliferation experts said could trigger a wider nuclear-arms race in North Asia and the Middle East. The negotiation between Seoul and Washington, though part of a broader, long-term civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, is taking place as nuclear pressures swell on both sides of the Korean peninsula. North Korea has expanded its atomic-weapons capability in recent months. It announced Tuesday that it was reopening a reactor complex used to harvest weapons-grade plutonium. Those actions have fueled calls in South Korea for the government in Seoul to respond by developing its own atomic-weapons capability.

• SEC Embraces Social Media. New Way to Make Disclosures Gets Go-Ahead if Investors Are Told Where to Look.

• Poll: Americans’ Top Conspiracy Theories, Revealed. PPP’s conspiracies poll released Tuesday includes looks at long-held theories, as well as contemporary items that play a role in political debates today.

• Silver Bears Pounce as Manufacturing Sputters. Silver prices plunged deeper into bear-market territory, as weak manufacturing data from the world's major economies stoked investor fears that the metal's gradual decline this year is turning into a rout. Silver has shed over 20% of its value since October and its losses this year surpass most other commodities, including gold.

• The Strange Maths of Tesla’s $500/month Model S. Great news for those who have been coveting the 2013 Car of the Year but can’t quite pony up the $60,000+ price tag: the Tesla Model S now has a lease option, announced today after some online hype from founder Elon Musk.

• Arkansas Water System to Ask Exxon(XOM) to Move Its Pipeline. Arkansas officials plan to ask Exxon Mobil Corp. to move a portion of its Pegasus Pipeline to ensure safe drinking water, after thousands of barrels of oil last week spilled from the pipeline into a small-town neighborhood. 

• Half of Hedge Funds Think Their Competitors Are Cheating. Hedge-fund employees seem to agree with federal authorities that their industry needs to clean up its act. Almost half of hedge-fund professionals believe their competitors are engaged in illegal activity and more than a third say they have felt pressure to break rules at work, according to an online survey released Tuesday. Meanwhile, 30% of respondents said they had witnessed misconduct on the job.
  

Fox News:

• Senators vow to oppose UN arms trade treaty. Republican senators -- joined by at least one Democrat -- ripped the international arms trade treaty approved Tuesday by the U.N. General Assembly, calling it a "non-starter" and vowing to oppose Senate ratification. The treaty approved Tuesday was the first of its kind. The resolution was approved at the U.N. by a vote of 154 to 3 with 23 abstentions. But in the U.S. Senate, which must ratify the treaty in order for the United States to be a party to it, opposition is much stronger. 

MarketWatch.com:

• SEC social media ruling could invite scams. Commentary: Look for fraudsters to try and move markets.

• Hollande is missing in action during Cyprus crisis. Commentary: ‘Latin empire’ needed to counterbalance Germany.

Zero Hedge: 

• The 'Walking Dead' Housing Recovery - Zombie Foreclosures.

• Three Macro Monetary Morphine Charts.

• The Four Traits Of Monetary Union Collapse.

• Oil Tanker Market In "State Of Panic" As Charter Rates Plunge, Cargoes Rejected. (graph)

• Biderman Nominates Krugman For 'The Big Lie' Award. (video)

Business Insider: 

• There Are Already Signs That US Economic Momentum Is Sputtering Out.

• There's A Fundamental Shift Going On In The US Labor Market.

• Hollande Is Reeling After 'Unpardonable' Hypocrisy From His Former Tax Chief.

New York Times:

• A Debate in the Open on the Fed. Federal Reserve officials regularly air their views in public speeches, but they rarely engage in public debates. On Tuesday night, two of the officials who disagree most sharply about the Fed’s current policy did just that. The exchange between Charles L. Evans, an outspoken advocate for the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy, and Jeffrey M. Lacker, the Fed’s most persistent internal critic, suggested their differences are as much a matter of temperament as economics.

Washington Post:

• Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit. The Obama administration is engaged in a broad push to make more home loans available to people with weaker credit, an effort that officials say will help power the economic recovery but that skeptics say could open the door to the risky lending that caused the housing crash in the first place. President Obama’s economic advisers and outside experts say the nation’s much-celebrated housing rebound is leaving too many people behind, including young people looking to buy their first homes and individuals with credit records weakened by the recession.

Telegraph: 

• Europe's leaders paralysed as EMU jobless rate hits record high. Eurozone unemployment reached a record 12pc in February and looks certain to ratchet higher as fiscal cuts deepen and manufacturing continues to struggle, raising the spectre of social explosion across southern Europe.

Yonhap News Agency: 

• NK-Kaesong entry ban. North Korea said Wednesday it will ban South Korean workers from entering the inter-Korean industrial park in Kaesong, only allowing South Koreans currently staying at the North's border town to return home. The abrupt entry ban came after Pyongyang threatened to shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex and launch a pre-emptive nuclear war on Seoul and Washington over South Korea-U.S. joint military drills and U.N. sanctions for its latest nuclear test. There are 861 South Koreans and seven foreign workers staying at the Kaesong complex, home to 123 labor-intensive factories. The complex, the crowning achievement of the June 2000 inter-Korean summit meeting, also employs some 54,000 North Korean workers. The complex, located just north of the DMZ, is significant because it is the only economic link between the two Koreas after Seoul suspended most exchanges with the communist country after the sinking of one of its naval ships in the Yellow Sea in March 2010.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 -3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 96.75 -1.25 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.33%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MON)/2.56

• (CAG)/.56

• (LNCR)/.61

• (JOSB)/.97

• (SCHN)/.25

• (AYI)/.62 

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to rise to 200K versus 198K in February.

10:00 am EST:

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for March is estimated to fall to 55.5 versus 56.0 in February.

10:30 am EST:

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,050,000 barrels versus a +3,256,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -1,596,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,100,000 barrels versus a -4,513,000 decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +2.2% gain the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Australia trade data and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Financial Sector Strength

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 13.08 -3.68%

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +92.45%

• Total Put/Call .85 -15.84%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 -15.82%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.13 -2.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 184.73 -5.03%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 104.33 -.65%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 269.17 -1.50%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 -.75 bp

• TED Spread 21.5 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 +1.0 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.

• Yield Curve 162.0 +2 bps

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.10/Metric Tonne -.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.60 +1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating a +197 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech/Medical/Retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Euro-Area Unemployment Rises to Record 12% Amid Slump. The euro-area jobless rate rose to a record 12 percent in early 2013, adding to signs that the currency bloc’s recession extended into the first quarter. Unemployment in the 17-nation euro area was 12 percent in February and the January figure was revised up to the same level from 11.9 percent estimated earlier, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That is the highest since the data series started in 1995 and matches the median estimate of 31 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
• France to Apply 75% Tax to Soccer Players’ Compensation. “This new tax will cost first-division teams 82 million euros,” France’s Football League said in a statement. “With these crazy labor costs, France will lose its best players, our clubs will see their competitiveness in Europe decline, and the government will lose its best taxpayers.”
• European Stocks Climb to Two-Week High; Vodafone Gains. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) climbed 1.3 percent to 297.52 at the close of trading. The gauge added 5.8 percent in the first quarter as U.S. lawmakers agreed on a compromise budget and optimism grew that central banks around the world will continue stimulus measures to support an economic recovery.
• Black Hawks Near North Korea Show Risks in U.S. Command Shift.
• Raw-Material Bull Market Fading as Supply Expands: Commodities. At a time when U.S. equities are trading near a record and the dollar is having its best start in three years, commodities will finish this quarter little changed from where they were at the end of 2012. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials will be at 644 at the end of June, 1.2 percent lower than now, according to the median of nine investor and analyst predictions compiled by Bloomberg.

Wall Street Journal:

• Skepticism Grows Ahead of BOJ Meeting. As Japan's central bank readies a bold plan for reversing chronic price falls and hitting an inflation target of 2% in two years, a chorus of naysayers—ranging from government officials to senior economists and market-watchers—is saying it can't be done.

Dow Jones:

• Valero: EPA Gasoline Plan Will Cost Hundreds of Millions of Dollars. Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) said the cost of complying with new pollution standards for gasoline will cost hundreds of millions of dollars in equipment construction and upgrades alone.

 Fox News:

•  UN adopts pact to regulate multibillion-dollar global arms trade.

MarketWatch:

• Cyprus sits close to exit door as four trends point to euro-zone collapse – UBS.

CNBC:

• Hedge Funds Have a Brutal Quarter, but Loeb Stands Out. Hedge funds, on average, returned just above 3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, a brutal return compared to buyers of an S&P 500 index fund, who enjoyed a 10 percent return on their money. 
• El-Erian: Unfortunately, the Cyprus Crisis Is Not Yet Over. Draconian capital controls have restored a sense of calm to a disorderly situation in Cyprus. At best, this is a short reprieve. If not followed by more fundamental (and inevitably controversial) decisions, it will just be a matter of weeks before the controls go from being a temporary solution to becoming part of an even deeper problem. 
• Fed May Be Able to Pull Back on Stimulus This Year: Lockhart. The Federal Reserve may be able to reduce its bond-buying stimulus plan before the end of this year if economic growth continues to pick up and employment improves further, a top central bank official said.

Zero Hedge: 

• Chart Of The Day: Euro Area Unemployment Hits New Record High.
• Debt = Serfdom.
• Factory Orders "Saved By The Transports", Annual Increase Barely Positive. (graph)
• You Know The Market's Euphoric When...(graph)
• China Raises Epidemic Response Plan Amid Re-Emergence Of Bird Flu.
• Holland: "An Economy On The Brink".

Business Insider: 

• We Just Got To See The European Crisis That's Far Bigger Than Cyprus Or Italy.
• Apple(AAPL) Planning Production Of New iPhone Starting This Quarter.
• US Moves Second Warship Near Korean Peninsula Amid Tensions.
• JIM O'NEILL: I Suspect China Is Growing More Slowly Than Everyone Thinks.

Reuters:

• North Korea to restart nuclear reactor in weapons bid. North Korea said on Tuesday it would revive a mothballed nuclear reactor able to produce bomb-grade plutonium but stressed it was seeking a deterrent capacity and did not repeat recent threats to attack South Korea and the United States. 
• ECB's Coeure warns against consequences of currency war. ECB policymaker Benoit Coeure warned against currency wars on Tuesday, saying currency swings brought about by misguided policies have the potential to become disruptive, especially if other central banks have limited room to maneuver. 
• Italy's "wise men" seek to end political crisis; president gloomy. Italian President Giorgio Napolitano expressed despair on Tuesday at fierce criticism of his latest plan to end a post-election deadlock that has raised fears of months of instability in the euro zone's third largest economy.
• Copper falls to seven-month low as weak data dampens mood.

Financial Times:

• US banks weigh EU bonus cap options. Foreign banks in the City of London are stepping up tactics to mitigate the impact of incoming EU bonus caps. Bankers said US institutions were considering whether it still made sense to base Europe, Middle East and Africa (Emea) business in London, suggesting that Dubai or another Gulf financial centre could benefit instead.
• EU data watchdogs take aim at Google(GOOG). Europe’s largest data-protection authorities have launched a joint action against Google to force it to remedy alleged breaches of EU privacy rules by the search giant.

Telegraph: 

• UK manufacturing shrinks again in March. British manufacturing shrank for a second successive month in March as companies scaled back production, leaving the services sector as the best hope of avoiding a fresh recession.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.17%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.51% 2) Airlines -2.93% 3) Oil Tankers -2.43%
  

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• NDAQ, CGI, ADT, DAL, UNXL, X, PKX, ALK, EZPW, AGU, UAL, SFUN, LCC, ANV, SLW, TPX, HPQ, VHC, WLT, KEX, HCA and PAAS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALXA 2) STSI 3) XLV 4) TEX 5) X
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) STI 2) RDC 3) EZPW 4) XOM 5) WMT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.78%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) HMOs +3.58% 2) I-Banking +3.43% 3) Biotech +1.52%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DLLR, HUM, OPTR, EHTH, OMPI, VOD, NUAN, UNH, ASH, HTZ, WCG, AET, CI, DVA, WLP, URBN, VHS, CBST and CHKR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NDAQ 2) HCA 3) DAL 4) TPX 5) UNH
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GNC 2) EHTH 3) DVA 4) FFIV 5) SCVL

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume