Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Seasonality, Weak Yen, Investor Performance Angst, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.01 +.23%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.36 +.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.83 -.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.58 -.78%

• ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +35.25%

• Total Put/Call .80 unch.

• NYSE Arms .81 -19.68% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.65 +1.29%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.02 +2.10%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.0 -.79%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 293.39 n/a

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 18.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.

• Yield Curve 247.0 +2 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.40/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.90 -1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.0 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +67 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.02%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) REITs -.90% 2) Homebuilders -.53% 3) Airlines -.30%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• FTNT, THOR, CRM, WTI, JKS, PXD, HI and HITT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HL 2) TJX 3) HCA 4) OXY 5) EBAY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) F 2) PXD 3) MA 4) FTNT 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.27%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.96% 2) Steel +1.68% 3) Construction +.81%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BCS and RIO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TJX 2) FTNT 3) LTD 4) ARAY 5) AMD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WFM 2) WMT 3) AMZN 4) AAPL 5) M
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +.25 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 107.25 +1.25 basis points. 

• FTSE-100 futures +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI, Italy/Spain bond auctions and the Eurozone CPI could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Higher on Better US Economnic Data, Investor Performance Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.98 +3.51%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.43 +.78%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.83 +1.85%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 +.24%

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 -16.44%

• Total Put/Call .80 +6.67%

• NYSE Arms .98 -16.24% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.99 +.95%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.69 -1.92%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.67 +2.78%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 293.39 +.52%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.75 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 basis point

• Yield Curve 245.0 +4 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.0/Metric Tonne +.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.60 +5.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.50 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -1 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +200 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.05%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.42% 2) Energy -.66% 3) Utilities -.63%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BRLI, BLOX, ADI, ZUMZ, TIVO, BRSS, LH, CHTR, OGE, NBL, DY, SBNY, TRP, DGX, CBRL, ACMP, LL, TAL, ENB, GNRC, OMCL, JKS, MTD, STMP, TREX and DLLR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MNST 2) HYG 3) HPQ 4) MGM 5) JCP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MBI 2) ADI 3) EBAY 4) NBL 5) CSX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume