Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Putin Out to Ease ‘Panic’ at Reeling Economy as Oil Sinks Ruble. President
Vladimir Putin will try to persuade Russians today that panic isn’t the
answer to their economic pain. His annual speech to both houses of
parliament and other officials, delivered in a chandeliered ceremonial
hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, is taking on added
importance
this year. The ruble is near a record low, the economy is headed
for a recession and banks are pleading for state aid. “He’ll seek to soothe nerves” in the face of “some
panic,” Alexey Panin, deputy director of the Center for
Political Information, said by phone from the Russian capital.
“But he’ll have to be realistic and present facts and figures
that will convince people that all’s well.”
- China’s Commitment to Freedoms in Hong Kong Questioned by U.S. The
U.S. State Department’s top official for Asian affairs questioned
whether China will keep its promises to preserve Hong Kong’s autonomy
amid street protests demanding open elections. “We are concerned by signs that China’s commitment to the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ model,as well as to maintaining a
high degree of autonomy, are eroding,” Assistant Secretary of
State Daniel Russel told a Senate subcommittee yesterday that
questioned the Obama administration’s willingness to prod China.
- Brazil Doubles Pace of Rate Increase to Meet Inflation Vow. Brazil doubled the pace of the
interest rate increases as the government of re-elected
President Dilma Rousseff pledges to slow inflation to its 4.5
percent target, a level unseen for more than four years. The bank’s
board, led by its President Alexandre Tombini,
voted unanimously today to raise the benchmark Selic by half a
point to 11.75 percent after a quarter-point increase Oct. 29, as
forecast by 31 of 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. (BZSTSETA)
Twenty-four analysts forecast a quarter-point increase.
- Honda’s Escalating Air-Bag Crisis Frays Half-Century Partnership. Honda Motor Co. signaled a
growing rift in its more than 50-year relationship with air-bag maker
Takata Corp., as the automaker struggles to contain a crisis that’s
killed five motorists in its cars. Honda turned to Stockholm-based Autoliv Inc. to supply replacement
parts for recalled vehicles and is negotiating with Japan’s Daicel Corp.
on securing more of the components. The carmaker also volunteered to a
nationwide recall to replace driver-side safety devices, hours after
Takata snubbed a deadline set by the U.S. auto regulator to take similar
action.
- Asia Stocks Gain, Led by Japan on Yen; Oil Advances.
Asian stocks rose, as Japanese shares extended gains with the dollar
near its strongest level since 2007 versus the yen. South Korea’s won
slipped while oil climbed in New York and London. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent by 11:01 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japan’s Topix index rose 0.8 percent toward the
highest level since December 2007.
- Sub-$50 Oil Surfaces in North Dakota Amid Regional Discounts. Oil market analysts are debating if oil will fall to $50. In North Dakota, prices are already there.
Crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota
fell to $49.69 a barrel on Nov. 28, according to the marketing arm of
Plains All America (PAA) Pipeline LP. That’s down 47 percent from this
year’s peak in June, and
29 percent less than the $70.15 paid for Brent, the global benchmark.
- Canada’s Oil Dividends Threatened as $70 Crude Hurts Cash. The ability of Canadian oil producers
to lure investors with generous dividends is being tested as
cash flow is squeezed by crude trading near five-year lows. Canadian
Oil Sands Ltd. (COS) will cut its quarterly dividend 42 percent to 20
cents a share in late January, the Calgary-based company said in a 2015
budget forecast statement today after the
close of North American markets. Companies will have to choose
between reducing spending or payments to shareholders, said
Sprott Asset Management LP’s Eric Nuttall.
Wall Street Journal:
- Dollar’s Rise Causes Pain Abroad. A surging dollar and falling commodities prices are delivering a
windfall to American shoppers and confounding central bankers by
widening the gap between the expanding U.S. economy and struggling
countries in Europe and Asia.
Fox News:
- GOP lawmakers, Benghazi survivors fume over House report. A recent report by a GOP-led committee that was seen as going easy on
the Obama administration's Benghazi response is drawing stinging
complaints from a number of Republicans on the panel, as well as
survivors of the attack. Some GOP members on the House Intelligence Committee grumble that the
final product "might as well have been written by the minority," while
other House Republicans say they are frustrated with the committee's
decision to release a report with so many "holes."
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
- OPEC won't stop US oil production growth. (video) U.S. oil production could increase next year to levels not seen
since the 1970s, despite OPEC's efforts to muscle out American shale
producers. While U.S. oil production is predicted to rise by another
million barrels a day during 2015 from the current 9 million barrels a
day, forecasts are coming down on expectations that OPEC's unwillingness
to cut production will keep a lid on prices well into next year. Lower
prices limit new drilling and hit high-cost wells
first.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Brazil steps up monetary tightening to regain investor confidence. Brazil raised its key interest
rate on Wednesday to a three year high, accelerating monetary
tightening in a bold move to quell inflation and reinforce
President Dilma Rousseff's shift toward more business-friendly
policies. In a unanimous vote, the central bank's monetary policy
committee raised its benchmark Selic rate by 50 basis points to
11.75 percent, its highest since August 2011. The size of the rate increase surprised many analysts who
had expected the bank to opt for a second straight
25-basis-point hike to lower inflation that remains above the
6.5 percent ceiling of the official target.
- Plosser says Fed at risk of getting behind curve on rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is at
risk of letting too much data put it "behind the curve" on
raising interest rates, a top Fed official said on Wednesday,
adding that inflation pressures would build the longer the
central bank waited for "lift-off."
"We're always going to get more data. Maybe it will be good
data, maybe bad ... And if you allow that to freeze your
policy-making process, you're always going to be stuck behind
the curve," Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles
Plosser said to reporters after a speech at a luncheon here.
Evening Recommendations
BofA:
- Cut (RIO) to Underperform.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.0 -1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.75 -.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
- Challenger Job Cuts for November.
- RBC Consumer Outlook Index.
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 295K versus 313K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2318K versus 2316K prior.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Meyer speaking, ECB rate decision, Draghi press conference, BoE
decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg
Consumer Comfort Index, Goldman Automotive Conference, RBC
Telecom/Media/Tech Conference, (LSTR) mid-quarter conference call, (HUM)
investor day, (URI) analyst day, (SBUX) investor day, (ALK) investor
meeting and the (ARG) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher
and to weaken into the early close, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is
50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.43 -3.27%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.06 -.06%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.53 +.12%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.96 -.48%
- ISE Sentiment Index 161.0 +35.28%
- Total Put/Call .76 -32.74%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.75 -.61%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.23 -1.16%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.75 -5.59%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.71 -1.43%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 291.80 -.50%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 327.96 -.05%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +.75 basis point
- TED Spread 22.5 +.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 173.0 -2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $69.25/Metric Tonne -2.01%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.20 +4.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.20 -4.6 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +.5 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +149 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Russia Recession Signs Mount as Central Bank Stems Ruble Losses. Russia’s economic pain worsened as a measure of services dropped to
the lowest point since May 2009 and the central bank attempted to stem
the ruble’s biggest slide in 16 years. The ruble touched a
record low for a fifth day as data showed a gauge of business activity
fell to a worse-than-forecast 44.5 in November. The currency rebounded
amid speculation the Bank of Russia intervened after a 16 percent
depreciation in six days, the most since the 1998 default. Wagers for
interest-rate increases surged to a six-year high, while bonds of
state-run VTB Bank sank on concern falling oil is straining lenders’
finances.
- Russian Services Industry Slumps to Lowest Since May 2009. (video)
Russia’s services activity slumped to its lowest in five-and-a-half
years as sanctions over Ukraine compounded weak demand, a falling ruble
and political uncertainty to undermine private companies. The Russia Services Business Activity Index fell to 44.5 in November, its lowest since May 2009, from 47.4 in October,
according to data released by HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Markit
Economics today. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by
Bloomberg predicted an increase to 47.8. A reading below 50
signals contraction.
- Euro-Area Economy Weakens as ECB Considers Stimulus. Euro-area services and manufacturing
grew less than initially estimated last month, leaving the
economy facing near-stagnation as the European Central Bank
considers its options on further stimulus. A composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.1 from
52.1 in October, London-based Markit Economics said today. The
reading is the lowest in 16 months and points to economic growth
of just 0.1 percent this quarter, according to Markit.
- There Are 300,000 Iraqi Barrels Signaling Oil Glut Will Deepen. Not only is OPEC refraining from cutting oil output to stem the five-month plunge in prices, it’s adding to the supply glut. Just
five days after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
decided to maintain production levels, Iraq, the group’s second-biggest
member, inked an export deal with the Kurds that may add about 300,000
barrels a day to world supplies.
- Saudis Seen Widening Asia Oil Discounts as OPEC Takes On Shale. Saudi
Arabia will probably deepen discounts for crude supplies to Asia after
leading OPEC to maintain the group’s output target amid a global battle
for market share, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders. The
world’s biggest oil exporter will announce January officialselling
prices to buyers in Asia this week, after lifting its Arab Light grade
from the lowest level in almost six years a month earlier. The largest
producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may offer
bigger discounts, according to 12 of 13 respondents in the survey. One
participant forecast price differentials to be unchanged.
- Audi Plans Electric Crossover to Take on Tesla in U.S. Audi AG (NSU) plans to roll out an electric-powered crossover in 2017 to challenge Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) for wealthy, environmentally conscious consumers. The
new model will mark Audi’s first mainstream all-electric vehicle and is
part of a push to roll out greener cars. Next year, Audi will introduce
a battery-powered variant of the $115,900 R8 sports car, which will
follow the start of deliveries of the plug-in hybrid A3 E-Tron hatchback
this year.
- Europe Stocks Climb Amid ECB Optimism as Commodity Stocks Rally. Gains in miners helped propel
European stocks to within 0.1 percent of a six-year high amid
bets that the European Central Bank will expand stimulus. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.6 percent to 349.34 at the close of trading in London. That’s its highest level since June 10, and Rio Tinto Group pushed a measure of commodity
companies to the biggest gain on the gauge.
- Wall Street Called Out by Regulators for Stalling on Swaps Rule. U.S.
regulators are getting fed up with Wall Street’s attempts to stall a
restriction on risky swaps trades. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM),
Citigroup Inc. (C) and other lenders have already won one delay of the
measure that forces them to move derivatives out of units with federal
backstops. Getting
another reprieve is crucial for banks, because it would give them time
to persuade a Republican-led Congress to kill the requirement.
- Hedge Funds Urged to Beat Benchmarks Before Charging Fees.
Hedge fund investors are catching up with their private equity peers.
Five years after clients of leveraged buyout firms released a set of
best practices for the industry, hedge fund clients are following suit. The
Teacher Retirement System of Texas and MetLife Inc. are among those
that yesterday called on managers to produce “alpha,” or gains above
market benchmarks before charging incentive fees in a range of proposals
that address investing terms. Funds should also impose minimum return
levels known as hurdle rates before levying the charges, said the
Alignment of Interests Association, a group that represents some
investors in the $2.8 trillion hedge fund industry.
- Obamacare's Future: Cancer Patients Paying More for Medication. People
with Obamacare coverage who take medications for cancer, HIV,
multiple sclerosis, and other chronic diseases might pay more out of
pocket next year. A greater share of insurance plans sold in the
healthcare.gov marketplace will require consumers to pay 30 percent or
more of the cost of specialty drugs, according to a new analysis from consultant Avalere Health.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +4.14% 2) Steel +2.58% 3) Oil Service +2.05%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- CARB, GIII, JD, IPGP, ANF, OFG, LDOS, EMES, LDOS, BBEP, CVC and WLL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) IDTI 2) XOMA 3) TER 4) BEAV 5) AT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) WAG 2) AN 3) LOCO 4) FAST 5) NUE
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine’s New Cabinet Takes Office Facing War, Economic Downturn. Ukraine’s
new cabinet won approval to take office and must set to work fixing the
economy and tackling a war that has triggered the worst standoff
between Russia and its Soviet-era foes in more than two decades. With
fighting against pro-Russian separatists hammering the economy,
President Petro Poroshenko granted citizenship to three foreigners to
let them take ministerial posts. Lawmakers voted
288 against 1 with 30 abstentions to approve the cabinet
yesterday, as Russia and NATO exchanged recriminations over the
conflict that has killed more than 4,300 people.
- Australia’s Economy Slows, Sending Currency to Four-Year Low.
Australia’s economy unexpectedly slowed for a second straight quarter,
sending the currency to a four-year low and renewing pressure for
interest-rate cuts. Gross domestic product advanced 0.3 percent from the previousthree months, when it rose 0.5 percent, a Bureau of Statistics
report released in Sydney today showed. The result was less than the
weakest estimate of 29 economists, who had a median of 0.7 percent.
- Japan Leads Asia Stocks Higher on U.S. Car Sales, Yen.
Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s benchmark index climbing toward a
seven-year high, after the yen weakened and automakers posted
better-than-estimated U.S. car sales. Australia’s dollar slid to a
four-year low after economic growth unexpectedly slowed and crude oil
advanced. The Topix added 0.6 percent by 11:39 a.m. in Tokyo, rising for
a second day as Toyota Motor Corp. climbed 1.3 percent.
- Bond Offerings Take Aim at $3.97 Trillion Record: Credit Markets. Corporate bond sales worldwide are
poised to set an annual record as soon as this week as companies
lock in borrowing costs that forecasters say are bound to rise.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Volkswagen AG (VOW) and Alibaba Group Holding
Ltd. have propelled offerings to $3.96 trillion this year, about $7
billion short of the peak of $3.97 trillion in 2012, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. Company bond sales in the U.S. have already set
annual records.
- Fire Sales, Risk-Taking Threaten Stability, Treasury Says. Fire
sales of assets, the Russia-Ukraine crisis and excessive risk-taking
driven by low interest rates all pose potential threats to financial
stability, the U.S. Treasury Department said. The Treasury’s Office of Financial Research, in its annual
report released today, pointed to “vulnerabilities associated
with declining market liquidity, and the migration of financial
activities toward opaque and less-resilient corners of the
financial system.” The OFR also cited excesses in the use of
leveraged loans and the need to fill “data gaps” in the
office’s monitoring of financial markets.
- Fed Officials Stress Data Over Dates as Rate Rise Case Builds. Federal Reserve officials are
signaling more confidence in the economy that moves them nearer
to raising interest rates, and are stressing the liftoff is linked to data rather than dates to avoid unsettling markets. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said today the central bank was getting closer to replacing its vow to hold rates low
for a “considerable time” with guidance that tighter monetary
policy would hinge on the economy’s performance.
Wall Street Journal:
- San Francisco Pension Reconsiders Hedge-Fund Allocation. Proposal Comes in Wake of Calpers Retreat. The chairman of San Francisco’s pension fund is proposing a smaller
mix of hedge funds than previously discussed, the latest retirement
system to rethink its approach to those investments in the wake of a
retreat by the largest public pension in the U.S. The new
suggestion made by San Francisco Employees’ Retirement System Chairman
Victor Makras, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal,
is to allocate as much as 3% of...
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (SLB) Outperform, target $114.
- Rated (HAL) Outperform, target $71.
- Rated (WFT) Outperform, target $19
UBS:
- Cut Australia Banks to Underweight.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 -2.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.5 -1.75 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
- The ADP Employment Change for November is estimated to fall to 222K versus 230K in October.
8:30 am EST
- Final 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a +2.0% gain in 2Q.
- Final 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.3% gain in 2Q.
9:45 am EST:
- Final Markit US Service PMI for November is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus a prior estimate of 56.3.
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 57.5 versus 57.1 in October.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of
+950,000 barrels versus a +1,946,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +850,000 barrels versus a
+1,825,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are
estimated to rise by +37,500 barrels versus a -1,648,000 barrel decline
the pior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by
+.47% versus a +.3% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
- Fed's Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking,
Eurozone Services PMI, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the
(ADM) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher
and to weaken into the early close, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.93 -9.45%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.15 -.04%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.52 +2.53%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.29 -.53%
- ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +35.96%
- Total Put/Call 1.16 +19.59%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 -1.31%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.92 -1.03%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.33 -.21%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.51 -2.75%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 293.80 +2.05%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 328.11 -.20%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 21.75 -1.0 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 175.0 +2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $70.67/Metric Tonne -.62%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.90 +.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.60 -.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.7 -2.0 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 -2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +115 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +34 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
