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Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:11 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Ukraine’s New Cabinet Takes Office Facing War, Economic Downturn. Ukraine’s new cabinet won approval to take office and must set to work fixing the economy and tackling a war that has triggered the worst standoff between Russia and its Soviet-era foes in more than two decades. With fighting against pro-Russian separatists hammering the economy, President Petro Poroshenko granted citizenship to three foreigners to let them take ministerial posts. Lawmakers voted 288 against 1 with 30 abstentions to approve the cabinet yesterday, as Russia and NATO exchanged recriminations over the conflict that has killed more than 4,300 people.
  • 6 Charts That Illustrate Vladimir Putin's World of Pain. (graph)
  • Australia’s Economy Slows, Sending Currency to Four-Year Low. Australia’s economy unexpectedly slowed for a second straight quarter, sending the currency to a four-year low and renewing pressure for interest-rate cuts. Gross domestic product advanced 0.3 percent from the previousthree months, when it rose 0.5 percent, a Bureau of Statistics report released in Sydney today showed. The result was less than the weakest estimate of 29 economists, who had a median of 0.7 percent.
  • Japan Leads Asia Stocks Higher on U.S. Car Sales, Yen. Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s benchmark index climbing toward a seven-year high, after the yen weakened and automakers posted better-than-estimated U.S. car sales. Australia’s dollar slid to a four-year low after economic growth unexpectedly slowed and crude oil advanced. The Topix added 0.6 percent by 11:39 a.m. in Tokyo, rising for a second day as Toyota Motor Corp. climbed 1.3 percent.
  • Bond Offerings Take Aim at $3.97 Trillion Record: Credit Markets. Corporate bond sales worldwide are poised to set an annual record as soon as this week as companies lock in borrowing costs that forecasters say are bound to rise. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Volkswagen AG (VOW) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. have propelled offerings to $3.96 trillion this year, about $7 billion short of the peak of $3.97 trillion in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Company bond sales in the U.S. have already set annual records.
  • Fire Sales, Risk-Taking Threaten Stability, Treasury Says. Fire sales of assets, the Russia-Ukraine crisis and excessive risk-taking driven by low interest rates all pose potential threats to financial stability, the U.S. Treasury Department said. The Treasury’s Office of Financial Research, in its annual report released today, pointed to “vulnerabilities associated with declining market liquidity, and the migration of financial activities toward opaque and less-resilient corners of the financial system.” The OFR also cited excesses in the use of leveraged loans and the need to fill “data gaps” in the office’s monitoring of financial markets.
  • Fed Officials Stress Data Over Dates as Rate Rise Case Builds. Federal Reserve officials are signaling more confidence in the economy that moves them nearer to raising interest rates, and are stressing the liftoff is linked to data rather than dates to avoid unsettling markets. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said today the central bank was getting closer to replacing its vow to hold rates low for a “considerable time” with guidance that tighter monetary policy would hinge on the economy’s performance.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • San Francisco Pension Reconsiders Hedge-Fund Allocation. Proposal Comes in Wake of Calpers Retreat. The chairman of San Francisco’s pension fund is proposing a smaller mix of hedge funds than previously discussed, the latest retirement system to rethink its approach to those investments in the wake of a retreat by the largest public pension in the U.S. The new suggestion made by San Francisco Employees’ Retirement System Chairman Victor Makras, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, is to allocate as much as 3% of...
  • Public Pensions Need Gamblers Anonymous. Retirement funds for Illinois and California hold 75% risky investments. The Texas teachers’ plan: 81%. 
Fox News:
  • Taliban flexing muscle with high-profile attacks ahead of US drawdown.
Zero Hedge: 
  • 5 Complete Lies About America's New $18 Trillion Debt Level.
  • Daniel Hannan Summarizes Europe's Dead-End Policies In 70 Seconds.
  • 10 Out Of 10 Credit Experts Agree: The Country Most Likely To Default First Is... (graph)
  • The Name Is Bond, Long Bond.
  • Crude Carnage Resumes But Stocks Bounce As Hindenburg Omen Strikes. (graph)
  • The Middle Class Spending Crash Explained.
  • Despite Face-Ripping Rally off Bullard Lows, US Investors In Japan Remain Down 4% Year-To-Date. (graph)
  • Sam Zell Asks If Obama "Wants To Work With Anyone To Create Anything?" (video)
  • Deficit Spending And Money Printing: A German Point Of View.
Business Insider:
  • Latin America Is Grinding To A Halt.
  • Russia Is Militarizing The Arctic.
Telegraph:
  • Five reasons why markets are heading for a crash. Hold onto your hats. Stock markets look much as they did in 2000 and 2007.
Evening Recommendations 
Oppenheimer:
  • Rated (SLB) Outperform, target $114.
  • Rated (HAL) Outperform, target $71.
  • Rated (WFT) Outperform, target $19
UBS:
  • Cut Australia Banks to Underweight.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 -2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.5 -1.75 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ANF)/.41
  • (GIII)/2.89
  • (BF/A)/1.04
  • (SNPS)/.61
  • (GES)/.18
  • (PVH)/2.48
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for November is estimated to fall to 222K versus 230K in October.
8:30 am EST
  • Final 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a +2.0% gain in 2Q.
  • Final 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.3% gain in 2Q.
9:45 am EST:
  • Final Markit US Service PMI for November is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus a prior estimate of 56.3.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 57.5 versus 57.1 in October.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +950,000 barrels versus a +1,946,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +850,000 barrels versus a +1,825,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +37,500 barrels versus a -1,648,000 barrel decline the pior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.47% versus a +.3% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • Fed's Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Eurozone Services PMI, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (ADM) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the early close, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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