Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.28%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -.45% 2) Hospitals -.32% 3) Oil Service -.30%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CUBA, KNOP, BIS, REMY, CALM, BDSI, GLP, OCN and VNOM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DD 2) IBB 3) XLU 4) DDD 5) GPRO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PBR 2) JCP 3) RCP 4) VSLR 5) VOLC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.65%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.73% 2) Biotech +1.66% 3) Alt Energy +1.15%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ISIS and VA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RPTP 2) SO 3) VA 4) KKR 5) GRPN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GPRO 2) IBM 3) NKE 4) GILD 5) H
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Russia Raises Forecast Deficit for Next Year as Recession Looms. Russia is facing a “considerably higher” deficit next year than planned as the economy slides toward recession, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. “If incomes are lower and the main spending is fully financed, then we’ll have to use reserves and increase the deficit,” Siluanov told reporters in Moscow. “One year with a deficit isn’t so scary, the most important thing is to prepare future budgets.”

• Russia's Defense of the Ruble Cuts Reserves by $15.7 Billion in Week. Russia’s international reserves plunged the most in six years, losing $15.7 billion last week as the government and central bank pledged measures to support banks and defend the currency. The value of the stockpile, which includes the central bank’s reserves and two sovereign wealth funds, fell to $398.9 billion in the week through Dec. 19, the Bank of Russia said today on its website. That is 22 percent drop from January. 

• Japan Struggles to Escape Recession as Production Drops: Economy. Japan’s inflation slowed for a fourth month in November, and industrial production and retail sales unexpectedly dropped, pointing to further weakness in an economy Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying to revive from recession. Output (JNIPMOM) fell 0.6 percent in November from a month earlier, the trade ministry said today, against a median estimate of a 0.8 percent increase in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Retail sales slid 0.3 percent, while consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier. Real wages fell the most since 2009. 

• Saudi Rulers to Curb Wages as Kingdom Confronts Oil Slump. Saudi authorities pledged to curb wages and push ahead with investments next year as the world’s largest oil exporter seeks to counter the effect of tumbling crude prices on the economy. The government said it expects the budget deficit in 2015 to widen to 145 billion riyals ($39 billion), from 54 billion riyals this year, the Finance Ministry said today. That amounts to about 5 percent of gross domestic product, according to Arqaam Capital, a Dubai-based investment bank.

• Asian Shares Extend Weekly Gain as Gold Climbs, Yen Falls. Asian shares extended a weekly advance while the yen fell against the dollar as slowing inflation in Japan boosted speculation the central bank will introduce more stimulus to revive the economy. Gold and silver rose with oil. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.2 percent to 137.65 at 11:28 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for its first weekly gain since November.

• NYPD Arrests Seven for Threats After Slayings of Officers. At least seven New Yorkers have been charged with making threats against police officers since the Dec. 20 killing of two patrolmen shot in their squad car in Brooklyn, a police spokeswoman said.

• U.S. Spy Agency Reports Improper Surveillance of Americans. The National Security Agency today released reports on intelligence collection that may have violated the law or U.S. policy over more than a decade, including unauthorized surveillance of Americans’ overseas communications. The NSA, responding to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit from the American Civil Liberties Union, released a series of required quarterly and annual reports to the President’s Intelligence Oversight Board that cover the period from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the second quarter of 2013.

• Sony’s ‘The Interview’ Packs Theaters Without Violence. Sony Pictures’ “The Interview,” the Seth Rogen comedy that sparked a cyber attack linked to North Korea and threats of violence in theaters, filled cinemas in a limited Christmas Day release across the U.S. without incident.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Puts New Focus on Fortifying Cyber Defenses. Sony Hacking Case Gives White House, Business Interests Urgency to Address Internet Security. The Obama administration is increasingly concerned about a wave of digital extortion copycats in the aftermath of the cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment, as the government and companies try to navigate unfamiliar territory to fortify defenses against further breaches.

• Antigraft Campaign Ripples Through China’s Economy. Some Business Are Adjusting Priorities In a Climate of Stricter Government Scrutiny. China’s biggest oil company is eschewing everything from multibillion-dollar deals to employee birthday cakes. A company that supplies alcohol for high-end spirits makers has turned to making industrial chemicals, while a restaurant chain that once served spicy fish heads to well-fed officials is now investing in big data.

• S&P Nears Settlement on Real-Estate Bond Ratings. Pact Would Be With SEC, New York and Massachusetts. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services is nearing a settlement with regulators over their investigation of how the company graded real-estate bonds, according to people familiar with the matter.

Fox News:

• ObamaCare woes: Struggling Iowa health insurer taken over by state.

Zero Hedge:

• The Keynesian Desperation Regarding 1920-21 Is Now Embarrassing. (graph)

• 50 Numbers From 2014 That Sound Fake But That Are Actually Real.

• US Yield Curve Collapses To 6.5 Year Lows. (graph)

• China's Christmas Present To The World: Beijing Eases Again, Sets Non-Bank Deposit Reserve To Zero. (graph)

• Japanese 10Y Yield Drops To Record Low; 2s Sell Subzero After BOJ Indirectly Buys Record Foreign Stocks. (graph)

• SF Fed Warns US Equity Valuations Will Be Cut In Half In Next Decade.

Business Insider:

• We Spoke To A North Korean Defector Who Trained With Its Hackers — What He Said Is Pretty Scary.

• It Looks LIke US Retailers Are Just Barely Going To Meet Holiday Expectations.

• The NYPD Is Facing A Wave Of Violent Threats Against Officers.

• Saudi Arabia Projects Its Biggest Deficit Ever After Oil Crash.

• Pressures Intensify On Russia's Banking Sector.

NY Times:

• Ukraine Vote Takes Nation a Step Closer to NATO.

Reuters:

• Russian presidential aide sees 11 pct inflation at end-2014 - RIA.

Telegraph:

• France has never had this many unemployed people before. Jobless total in France hits record high in November, as troubles continue for Europe's second largest economy.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.50 +1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.5 unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.24%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China industrial profits report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Seasonal Strength, Less European Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Biotech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.10 -4.73%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.31 -.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.85 -.28%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.97 -1.77%

• ISE Sentiment Index 51.0 -27.14%

• Total Put/Call .94 +10.59%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +38.68% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.25 -.35% 

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 636.0 +1.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.86 -.86%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.76 -3.51%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.55 +.01%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 325.69 +.46%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 339.71 -1.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 23.5 +1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 153.0 +1.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $66.94/Metric Tonne +.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.60 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.60 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.70 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +80 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.03%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -1.22% 2) Oil Service -1.20% 3) Social Media -.90%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CAMP, DLNG, CUBA, BIS, AFG, CAF, CALM, WMC, PKO, ARDX, OAS, PTY, SSL, VLP, AAVL, PDI, TGP, NOAH, BCPC, KOP, NE and CLR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SHLD 2) NVDA 3) XLU 4) OIH 5) BBY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MON 2) CHK 3) JCP 4) NBL 5) CLR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.61%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.27% 2) Biotech +2.17% 3) Utilities +1.44%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ADMS, BRP, NVGS, ACHN, GPRO, ISIS, QIHU, VNDA and CELG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OVTI 2) AEP 3) KKR 4) GPS 5) UPS
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OVAS 2) BAC 3) AAPL 4) TOL 5) ABBV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume