Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.62%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.72% 2) Oil Service +.53% 3) Steel -.23%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMZN, ICPT, SYNA, MAN, CPHD, QLGC, BIIB and V

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DECK 2) GDP 3) SYNA 4) KRFT 5) RPTP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) COST 2) BIIB 3) AMZN 4) CELG 5) MA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:   

• Japan Limps Out of Recession With December Production Gain. Japan’s industrial production snapped two quarters of decline, signaling the world’s third-largest economy may have limped out of recession. Output rose 1.8 percent in the three months through December from the third quarter, the trade ministry said Friday. While household spending fell and inflation slowed in December, the labor market continued to tighten, with the ratio of jobs to applicants rising to the highest in more than two decades and the unemployment rate falling to the lowest since August 1997. 

• Top Economist Says BOJ Doesn’t Need More Stimulus: Japan Credit. Japan’s top-rated economist says the central bank doesn’t need more stimulus, defying the consensus. Ryutaro Kono, chief Japan economist in Tokyo at BNP Paribas SA, voted No. 1 by Nikkei Veritas magazine in six of the past seven years, says lower oil prices will stimulate growth and policy makers will favor yen stability. Twenty-six of 33 of economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast the Bank of Japan will accelerate asset purchases by the end of October to meet a 2 percent inflation target. Ten-year inflation swaps slid to a two-year low of 0.74 percent this week, Meitan Tradition data showed.

• Taiwan’s GDP Growth Misses Economists Estimate in Fourth Quarter. Taiwan’s economy grew slower than economists estimated last quarter after a food scandal weighed on demand. Gross domestic product rose 3.17 percent from a year earlier in the three months through December, according to preliminary data the statistics bureau released in Taipei Friday. That missed the 3.25 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts and declined from 3.63 percent in the prior quarter. The economy expanded 3.51 percent in 2014.  

• Asian Stocks Advance to Extend First Monthly Gain Since October. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index extending its firstly monthly gain since October, as Japanese shares climbed after the yen weakened against the dollar on a drop in U.S. jobless claims. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent to 140.91 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo.

• Plunging Oil Prices Felt Across Japan’s Industrial Base. The plunge in crude oil prices is taking its toll across Japan’s industrial base. Forecasts from Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp., Japan Marine United Corp. and Komatsu Ltd. show the extent to which lower crude prices are eroding the outlooks for industrial companies with businesses linked to oil and gas.  

• Iron Ore Set for Monthly Loss as ABN’s Crystal Ball Shows No Joy. Iron ore is heading for the biggest monthly loss since May, signaling that the bear market that began last year has further to run as steel mills in China curtail output before a national holiday and major producers add supply. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao, China, was at $63.27 a dry metric ton on Thursday, 11.2 percent lower this month, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The raw material fell to $63.09 on Wednesday, the lowest price on record going back to May 2009, and is poised for a third monthly drop.

• Hillary Clinton Faces Scrutiny for Use of Private Jets. Hillary Clinton took more than 200 privately chartered flights at taxpayer expense during her eight years in the U.S. Senate, sometimes using the jets of corporations and major campaign donors as she racked up $225,756 in flight costs.

Wall Street Journal:

• Underground Terror Network Said to Benefit Would-Be Jihadists in Europe. Officials Say Wife of Paris Gunman Used Resources to Reach Islamic State Territory in Syria. When a young Frenchwoman showed up early this month at an Islamic State border checkpoint in northern Syria, the extremists controlling that arid expanse were expecting her.

• Falling Prices Spread Pain Far Across The Oil Patch. Companies Plan to Slash Spending Along With Thousands of Jobs. Rumor became reality here last week when dozens of workers lost their jobs at Laredo Petroleum Inc. The Oklahoma-based energy outfit said it closed its regional office to cope with plunging oil prices.

• Mexico Prepares to Cut Spending as Oil-Price Drop Hits Revenue. By Reducing Spending, Government Signals It Aims to Continue Lowering Deficit.

• Former Hedge-Fund Managers Hit the Comeback Trail. Veteran Stock Pickers Michael Karsch, Adam Weiss Plan New Funds. It can be tough to start over in the hedge-fund world. The $2.8 trillion industry is strewed with tales of managers who, after shutting down large funds, relaunched only to limp along or close again. Undaunted, veteran stock pickers Michael Karsch and Adam Weiss plan to launch new funds less than two years after closing their old firms, according to Mr. Karsch and people familiar with Mr. Weiss’s plans.

• Obama Budget Proposes 7% More in Spending Above Sequestration Caps.

• America’s Strategy Deficit. A haphazard foreign policy makes a complicated world more dangerous. Something is going on here. On Tuesday retired Gen. James Mattis, former head of U.S. Central Command (2010-13) told the Senate Armed Services Committee of his unhappiness at the current conduct of U.S. foreign policy. He said the U.S. is not “adapting to changed circumstances” in the Mideast and must “come out now from our reactive crouch.” Washington needs a “refreshed national strategy”; the White House needs to stop being consumed by specific, daily occurrences that leave it “reacting” to events as if they were...

Fox News:

• Official: Gitmo prisoner traded for Bergdahl reaching out to Taliban. (video) One of the five Taliban fighters traded last year for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl is trying to make contact with the Taliban once again, Fox News has learned. A U.S. official confirmed to Fox News that the former Guantanamo prisoner has been intercepted making telephone calls to the Taliban. The development comes amid rising concerns over former Guantanamo detainees returning to the battlefield, and over the nature of the Bergdahl-Taliban trade itself last year, which was negotiated with the involvement of the Qatari government.

CNBC:

• Amazon(AMZN) earnings: 45 cents a share, vs. expected EPS of 17 cents. Amazon.com blew past Wall Street's earnings expectations on Thursday as holiday sales climbed some 15 percent, sending the company's shares rallying 14 percent in after-hours trading.

• Google(GOOG) misses on earnings, blames strong dollar. (video) Google reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analysts' expectations, as foreign exchange and falling ad prices weighed on the company.

• Visa(V) offers 4-for-1 stock split, beats on top and bottom. Visa reported earnings on Thursday that beat on both the top and bottom line and also announced a four-for-one stock split. The stock rose more than 4 percent in after-hours trade.

Zero Hedge:

• The Wreck Of The Monetary Hesperus.

• Janet Yellen Now Advises Democrats What The Fed's Monetary Policy Plans Are.

• After VISA's(V) Stock Split, The Most Important Company In The Dow Jones "Industrial" Average Is...

• 3 Things - Fed Mistake, ECB QE, Housing. (graph)

• According To Citi(C), Small Hedge Funds May Have No Choice But To Become Paper Traders On Twitter. (graph)

• The Biggest "Hamilton Oil Shock" In History. (graph)

• The Next War In The Middle East Has Begun And Israel Vows "To Act Powerfully On All Fronts".

• Occupied By Wall Street – The Latest TARP Taxpayer Screw-Job Is Revealed.

Business Insider:

• Greece Is Quickly Turning Into Europe's Worst Nightmare.

• Shake Shack IPO Prices Way Higher Than Expected.

• Expert: The US Strategy In Syria Is A Complete Mess.

• Alibaba's(BABA) Fairy-Tale Ascent Is Being Threatened By 2 Major Risks.

• The US Is Running Out Of Intelligence In Yemen.

Reuters:

• U.S.-based stock funds attract $2.8 bln over week -Lipper.

• Deckers cuts full-year forecast as demand for UGG shoes slows. Outdoor footwear and apparel manufacturer and retailer Deckers Outdoor Corp cut its full-year forecast as demand for its UGG Australia branded sheepskin shoes slows in the United States. The company's shares fell 13.7 percent in after-market trading on Thursday.

• Chinese banks back risky stock margin finance in face of regulator crackdown. Chinese banks seeking to profit from the country's stock market frenzy have bought into the recent surge in margin finance, foiling regulatory efforts to reduce debt-fueled speculation and amplifying the risk if the rally turns into a rout. Although regulators are cracking down on credit flows into the stock market, financial industry insiders say they still have not closed loopholes that allow banks to channel credit into the stock market via brokerages.

Telegraph:

• The game is up. It’s time for Greece to leave the eurozone and move on. The stand-off between Greece and the rest of the eurozone will escalate, neither side will blink and the country will default.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 -2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 69.0 -.25 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AXL)/.54

• (AON)/1.86

• (CBOE)/.66

• (FLIR)/.48

• (MMC)/.66

• (MCO)/.95

• (CCJ)/.31

• (D)/.83 

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The 4Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in 3Q.

• Advance 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +5.0% gain in 3Q.

• Advance 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +4.0% versus a +3.2% gain in 3Q.

• Advance 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.4% gain in 3Q.

9:00 am EST

• ISM Milwaukee for January is estimated to rise to 58.0 versus 57.61 in December.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for January is estimated to fall to 57.5 versus 58.3 in December.

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for January is estimated at 98.2 versus a prior estimate of 98.2.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (SMBC) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Tarullo speaking and the Eurozone Unemployment Rate call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Oil Bounce, Earnings Optimism, Yen Weakness, Homebuilding/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.34 -5.38%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.80 +.89%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.32 +4.45%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.99 -5.17%

• ISE Sentiment Index 65.0 -26.97%

• Total Put/Call 1.16 +19.59%

• NYSE Arms 1.31 -62.28% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.09 -.34%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 752.0 +1.75%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.32 +.40%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.45 +3.24%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 69.81 +.91%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 398.45 -.43%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.01 +.12%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -2.5 basis points

• TED Spread 23.75 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 -2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 124.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.27/Metric Tonne +.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.1 +5.1 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.30 -3.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.40 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63 +2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +229 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +48 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• EU Moves Toward Tougher Russia Sanctions as Greece Yields. European Union governments moved toward imposing further economic sanctions on Russia as Greece’s new administration refrained from casting a veto that could leave it isolated in Europe. EU foreign ministers gave the go-ahead to prepare steps that would go beyond last year’s decisions to ban financing for Russian state-owned banks and prohibit the export of advanced energy-exploration technology. The EU will also extend a blacklist of 132 people including Russian politicians and military officers involved in the Ukraine conflict by six months to September, and add more names to the list by Feb. 9. “It does include preparatory work for further punitive measures,” EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told reporters after the 28 national ministers met Thursday in Brussels. “We hope this can help put pressure in particular on Russia to make positive steps.”

• Greek Market Moves Don’t Alter EU Stance, Official Says. (video) Market tension in Greece hasn’t weakened the European Union’s determination that officials in Athens stick to commitments under the nation’s international bailout, said Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s vice president for the euro. Stocks in Athens fell this week to lows not seen since the worst of the debt crisis, with Greek banks losing more than $10 billion of value within 48 hours of the appointment of an anti-bailout cabinet under new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The markets rebounded Thursday as the government sought to downplay the prospect of a clash with creditors, with the stocks gaining 3 percent and the yield on benchmark 10-year Greek bond falling 21 basis points to 10.12 percent.

• Greek Government’s Signals are ‘Very Mixed,’ ECB’s Jazbec Says. Greece’s new government is sending “very mixed signals” on its aid program and it's too soon to say how the country will be treated in the European Central Bank's bond-buying plan, ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Jazbec said. “Our concerns and hopes are related to how the Greek government will understand the situation and react to it,” he said in an interview in Ljubljana on Thursday. “It’s too early to directly answer questions on when and how the ECB can buy Greek government bonds.” Jazbec’s comments are the most explicit yet from an ECB policy maker on the Greek government’s stance.

• German Inflation Rate Is Negative for First Time Since 2009. Germany’s inflation rate turned negative in January for the first time in more than five years, aggravating a slump in consumer prices in the euro area. Prices in Europe’s largest economy fell 0.5 percent from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That’s the lowest rate since September 2009. Economists predicted a drop of 0.2 percent. 

• Brazil Says Gain in Fighting Inflation Is Still Insufficient. Brazil’s central bank said progress in taming above-target inflation is insufficient after it bucked the trend of other central banks last week by raising its benchmark rate to the highest in more than three years.

• Nigeria Torn Asunder as Boko Haram Drive Fuels Caliphate Threat. Islamist fighters have declared a caliphate in northeastern Nigeria that’s the size of Belgium. Whether the region becomes autonomous or not, the damage has been done. As Nigeria prepares to hold general elections next month, Boko Haram is expanding a six-year campaign to impose its strict version of Islamic law on a region around Nigeria’s northeast and spilling into neighboring Chad and Cameroon. While it’s failed to capture the Borno’s capital, Maiduguri, the state’s emergency agency said this month that its officials can’t travel to 20 of 27 local government areas in Borno.  

• Alibaba(BABA) Revenue Misses Estimates, Shares Tumble 8% in Pre-Market. (video) Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. revenue missed estimates as the e-commerce giant’s push into mobile curbed its advertising sales growth. The shares fell. 

• Emerging Stocks Decline Amid Crisis Signs From Russia to Greece. Emerging-market stocks fell the most in three weeks as China intensified its crackdown on speculative trading and a flareup in the Ukraine conflict stoked concern that economies in the region are being pushed into crisis. Citic Securities Co. and Haitong Securities Co. fell in Shanghai as regulators planned a new round of checks into the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. Russia’s ruble weakened for a second day and stocks declined on speculation it will face tougher international sanctions linked to Ukraine. The Ibovespa sank for a second day in Sao Paulo. Greek banks rebounded from a slump driven by the new government’s pledge to end austerity. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.4 percent to 971.10 at 11:07 a.m. in New York.

• European Stocks Trim Best Month Since 2009 as Shell Declines. European stocks closed little changed, paring earlier losses, as German inflation data missed forecasts, while U.S. jobless claims fell to a 15-year low. Royal Dutch Shell Plc slid 4.3 percent after reporting that fourth-quarter profit rose less than analysts predicted. Vallourec SA lost 3.8 percent after saying it will write down the value of assets by as much as 1.2 billion euros ($1.35 billion) as lower oil prices force some customers to cut spending. Deutsche Bank AG rose 2.6 percent after posting a surprise quarterly profit. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1 percent to 368.76 at the close of trading, after earlier losing 0.8 percent and rising 0.2 percent.

• Commodity Shipping Rate Falls to 28-Year Low on China Demand. A measure of global shipping costs for commodities fell to a 28-year low as slowing growth in China’s demand exacerbates the effect of a fleet glut. The Baltic Dry Index plunged 5.1 percent to 632 points, the lowest since Aug. 22, 1986, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London on Thursday. Freight rates for all the vessel types within the measure declined.

• Oil’s Plunge Hurts Houston Office Sales, Calgary Leases. These are early signs that demand is weakening for commercial properties in cities that depend on the energy industry after crude oil prices fell below $50 a barrel, the lowest in five-and-a-half years, from more than $100 in June. Oil companies looking to reduce costs are cutting jobs and choosing to stay put rather than buy or lease new space, said Ross Moore, director of Canada research for CBRE.   

• Gold Heads for Biggest Drop Since 2013 as Silver Plummets. On the Comex, gold futures for April delivery lost 2.5 percent to $1,254.80 an ounce at 1:06 p.m. in New York, on pace for the biggest loss since Dec. 19, 2013.

• Wall Street Creating CLOs That May Bypass Rules: Credit Markets. Wall Street has another rule it’s trying to get around: regulations seeking to limit risk-taking by managers of collateralized loan obligations. Leon Black’s Apollo Global Management LLC, Carlyle Group LP and a unit of Credit Suisse Group AG have all taken steps in the past two months to create CLOs now that they may be able to refinance after the rules take effect in December 2016 without having to comply with the new regulations, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. The firms are trying to avoid a requirement to hold a stake in the funds they manage.  

• U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to a 20-Year Low. The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest in more than two decades in the fourth quarter as many would-be buyers stayed on the sidelines, giving the rental market a boost. The share of Americans who own their homes was 64 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 64.4 percent in the previous three months, the Census Bureau said in a report. The rate was at the lowest since the second quarter of 1994, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Fox News: 

• Obama seeking to 'fully reverse' sequester cuts, raise spending caps in budget plan. (video) President Obama will push to "fully reverse" the so-called sequester cuts and significantly raise government spending caps as part of his upcoming budget plan, a proposal likely to anger fiscal conservatives who want to see spending limits in place. The across-the-board cuts, agreed to by both parties, have been in effect since 2013, after lawmakers were unable to produce a more strategic deficit-cutting plan. Members of both parties have problems with the cuts, which indiscriminately affect both domestic and defense programs.

CNBC: 

• Next for oil: Mergers, layoffs and 'death spirals'. The oil industry may be getting pinched by falling prices, but the next year could be a busy and lucrative time for private equity firms and restructuring specialists working in energy.

ZeroHedge:

• Alexis Tsipras Most Outrageous Outburst Yet?

• The Fed Has Boxed Itself Into A Corner.

• Europe's Largest Insurance Company Explains Why The ECB's QE Has Already Failed Using "Widget Makers".

• Crude Crumbles To Fresh Lows: $43 Handle. (graph)

• Alexis Tsipras' Open Letter To Germany: What You Were Never Told About Greece.

• It Will Now Cost You 0.5% To Save Money In Denmark: Danish Central Bank Cuts Rates For Third Time In Two Weeks.

• Pending Home Sales See 2nd Biggest MoM Plunge Since May 2010. (graph)

• Putin's Unexpected Victory: Europe Furious That Greece Is Now A Russian Sanctions Veto.

• Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To 15 Year Lows But Shale States Job Losses Explode. (graph)

Business Insider:

• GARY SHILLING: Here Are 11 Reasons Why I Still Like US Treasury Bonds.

• America's 3rd And 4th Largest Oil Companies Announced Huge Budget Cuts.

• FORGET GREXIT: The Big Risk In Greece Is That They Reverse Reforms.

• Bank Of America(BAC) Is Cutting Its Trader Bonus Pool Up To 10%.

• Legendary Marine General James Mattis Ripped Into Obama's Foreign Policy During Senate Testimony.

• Iran Targets Netanyahu Children for Assassination By Publishing Personal Information.

Reuters:

• Greece could face rating downgrade if troika talks stall - Fitch. Greece could face a rating downgrade if it cannot come to an agreement with its international creditors by the time Fitch next assesses the country in May, said Douglas Renwick, the firm's head of western European sovereigns on Thursday. "If by our next review on the 15th of May there is no progress on these talks or they look to be failing, of course that would be a trigger for a downgrade," said Renwick during a conference call.

• 
  
  METALS-Copper down after Fed meeting, inventories rise.

Telegraph: 

• Investors have woken up to Greece's nuclear risk. European and international authorities are facing a revolt from the Greek new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.33%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -3.79% 2) Oil Service -3.70% 3) Gold & Silver -3.65%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• TGI, CLB, AERI, POST, ALB, FTNT, OSTK, QCOM, YHOO, HSY, WRLD, CAVM, DSKY, SWFT, PAYC, KNX, HP, BABA, USLV, PCH, VRTX, RTN, UBSH, MMYT, RCL, CRS, GLW, FCX, CHMT, BEAV, CAM, CRUS, RTN, TKR, FNSR, X, GHL, STLD, WWWW and RES

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NFX 2) EWG 3) CTSH 4) HON 5) HOG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRTX 2) CAT 3) BABA 4) OSTK 5) GHL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.30%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +2.47% 2) Restaurants +1.68% 3) Airlines +1.13%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XNCR, HZO, HAR, KATE, CMPR, IRE, COH, CSH, VAR, AZPN, NOW, MCD, LRN, CSII, OMER, ABMD, CL, PHM, JBLU, APD, BC, SWK, CEMP and TSCO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VNDA 2) MCD 3) ADT 4) EMES 5) CL
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HOLX 2) BA 3) PG 4) FB 5) NOC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume