Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,091.80 -.71%

• DJIA 17,850.10 -.87%

• NASDAQ 5,068.45 -.02%

• Russell 2000 1,258.50 +.96%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.72 unch.

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 144.91 +1.0% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,942.40 -.44%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,005.45 -.54%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,025.10 -.71%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 487.28 -2.56%

• Solactive US Cyclical 137.26 -.93%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,046.89 -.15%

• Transports 8,509.77 +2.54%

• Utilities 562.96 -4.07%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 117.80 -1.13%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.41 -2.31%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,224.73 -.13%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 985.44 -.20%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 237,811 -.97%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -178 -80

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.6 -33.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 347,991 +1.33%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,614,397 -.42%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -11.40%

• OEX Put/Call .80 -76.19%

• ISE Sentiment 93.0 +1.08%

• NYSE Arms .81 -25.47%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.45 +3.54%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.73 +2.61%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.29 +1.88%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.66 +3.09%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,361.08 -1.18%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.614 Trillion +.18%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.390 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.3 +1.3%
• AAII % Bears 24.6 -2.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 222.53 -.29%

• Crude Oil 58.92 -2.16%

• Reformulated Gasoline 202.58 -1.81%

• Natural Gas 2.59 -2.16%

• Heating Oil 186.57 -4.63%

• Gold 1,170.60 -1.61%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 167.76 -1.95%

• Copper 269.65 -1.46%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 231.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 64.45 USD/Ton +4.20%

• Lumber 291.20 +6.58%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,082.84 +2.54%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.0% -40.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0447 +19.2%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 124.94 +.19%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.90 +6.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.0 +17.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.50 -7.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/17

• US Dollar Index 96.34 -.53%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.80 +2.37%

• Yield Curve 169.0 +19.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.40% +30.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.427 Trillion +.03%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.18 -2.96%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 225.0 -1.45%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.19 -.81%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.02 +3.84%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 310.26 +.34%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.50 unch.

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 661.52 +1.48%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 349.04 +12.97%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.11 +.02%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 27.0 -1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +2.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.92 +5.04%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,162.0 +4.14%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 77.20 +1.50%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 307.30 +5.97%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 87.50 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.991 Trillion +.75%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 943.90 -.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 274,750 -1,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.87% unch.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 369.50 -7.60%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.5 -.4 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.80% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.76/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 603.0 +2.38%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 890.42 -.14%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 -6.25%
• Rail Freight Carloads 247,170 -12.07%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -.7%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +6.5%

• Social Media +4.0%

• I-Banks +3.2%

• Banks +2.7%

• Steel +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

• HMOs -2.0% 

• Semis -2.5%

• Gold & Silver -2.7%

• Coal -2.8%

• Utilities -4.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)

• HRTX, RXDX, IMGN, OMG, BRLI, HUM, GIII, REGI, XENT, EROS, BOOT, STCK, AMBA, FIVE, GES, PVH, SNCR, ALTR, AMPH, GME, CUZ, TITN, ADMS, ZION, NX and XNCR

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)

• VEEV, VNCE, VWR, BGG, CRRC, OPK, CTLT, NAV, GEF, MRTX, VRA, RGLS and PBYI

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Concerns, Utilities/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.45 -1.77%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.85 -.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.66 +.73%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.38 +1.92%

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +15.5%

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -9.57%

• NYSE Arms .70 -57.71% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.74 +1.16%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,164.0 +1.97%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.21 +3.46%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.19 +3.55%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.02 +.46%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 310.43 +2.92%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.11 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 27.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 168.0 +4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $64.45/Metric Tonne -.49%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.90 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.0 +1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.50 -2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 +4.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +103 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -392 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.21%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.46% 2) Steel -1.38% 3) Gold & Silver -1.35%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ZUMZ, VNCE, NEWM, ESL, LE, CPF, EHIC, THO, COHU, SYT, VCLT, PAY, COO, NAV, PBYI, KANG, TTM, AXL, LABL, SHLD, UNFI, SJM, SWIR, IMH and DTE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HEDJ 2) DISH 3) XLF 4) HIG 5) HYG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CMS 2) ZUMZ 3) DUK 4) DOW 5) MCD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.09%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +1.36% 2) Banks +1.18% 3) Alt Energy +1.04%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ZOES, DMND, QUNR, BITA, WB, FEYE, QIHU, SINA, JD, SUPN, JMEI, CYBR and DENN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MWE 2) CZR 3) EPI 4) GALE 5) EXPR
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DMND 2) DENN 3) UA 4) ANTM 5) NDLS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running 7.4% Above 100-day average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 42.3% of Issues Advancing, 54.0% Declining
• 35 New 52-Week Highs, 134 New Lows
• 49.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.9
• Vix 14.79
• Total Put/Call 1.07
• TRIN/Arms .58

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg: 

• Merkel’s G-7 Faces Confluence of Deadlines on Greece to Russia. In June 2007, the last time Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted a Group of Eight summit, she was unaware that the world’s leaders stood on the edge of a global financial precipice. Now down one member after Russia’s exclusion last year after it annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, Merkel’s G-7 faces a series of existential crises that are in large part hers to solve. Greece’s five-year battle to stay solvent runs the almost daily risk of failure, the European Union is struggling to maintain unanimity on sanctions against Russia, and nuclear talks with Iran are touch-and-go. Those are challenges that President Barack Obama will press European leaders to heed to ensure unity among the world’s leading advanced economies.

• Greece Is First Country to Defer IMF Payment Since 1980s. (video)

• China’s Online Lending Boom Spurs Startups, Investment and Risk. Though peer-to-peer lending was pioneered in the U.S. by companies such as LendingClub Corp., China is where it’s really taking off. Internet-based peer lenders there gave out at least $32.5 billion in loans last year, almost quadruple the rest of the world combined, according to U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital Ltd. It predicts lending in China will almost double this year to $60 billion versus $11.7 billion in the U.S., the second-largest market. In peer-to-peer lending, companies use the Internet to quickly match borrowers and lenders at better rates than banks. 

• Asian Stocks Retreat for Fifth Day as Greece Delays Debt Payment. Asian stocks fell for a fifth day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its second week of losses, following a decline in U.S. equities as Greece asked for a deferral on its debt payments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent to 148.85 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for a 1.7 percent decline this week amid a selloff in bonds and commodities.

• Oil Set for Weekly Drop as Glut Seen Persisting After OPEC Meet. Oil headed for the biggest weekly drop since March amid speculation OPEC will maintain its output target at a meeting on Friday, leaving the market oversupplied. Futures were little changed in London, poised for a 5.3 percent decline through June 5. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue its battle to retain market share, according to Maria van der Hoeven, the executive director of the International Energy Agency. The 12-member group is forecast to keep its daily production target of 30 million barrels unchanged at the meeting in Vienna.

• Whatever OPEC Decides, Oil Supplies Are Rising From All Sides. No matter what OPEC says Friday about its production target, the outcome is sure to be more oil. Iran, Iraq and Libya said this week they plan to add millions of barrels to the market this year. Saudi Arabia, the biggest member in the group, is already pumping the most in three decades. And executives from the world’s biggest oil companies pledged to keep expanding by cutting costs and focusing on the most promising drilling sites. The contest for market share is proving more important than price as the Saudis seek to undercut higher-cost producers while costs keep dropping. The competition is intensifying because producers are eager to sell ever more oil even as world demand slows. 

• Goldman(GS) Said to Near U.S. Settlement Exceeding $2 Billion. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is in talks to pay $2 billion to $3 billion to settle a probe into its sales of mortgage bonds leading up to the financial crisis, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. The investment bank could reach a deal with the U.S. Justice Department within weeks, the person said, asking not to be identified because the negotiations aren’t public.

Wall Street Journal:

• 5 Things to Watch in the May Jobs Report. 

• China’s IPO Market Leaves U.S. in the Dust. Mainland and Hong Kong exchanges together far surpass U.S. in initial offerings this year.

• The Clinton ‘Charity’ Begins at Home. Employment rolls for the Clinton Foundation show scads of political operatives—but this doesn’t seem to bother the IRS. The scandal of the century at the IRS was that agency’s secret targeting of conservative nonprofits. Perhaps a close second is the scandal of what the IRS hasn’t been investigating: the Clinton Foundation. 

• Islamic State’s Global Expansion. After years of denial, the U.S. response must now go beyond countering ISIS in Iraq and Syria. As Islamic State advances in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo, there is a deadly twist in the war. The radical Islamist group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, is now expanding in roughly a dozen countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia by exploiting local grievances, doling out money and leveraging its battlefield successes.

Fox News:

• ISIS shows off US gear seized from Iraqis in fighting near Fallujah. A new video from ISIS reportedly depicts the terrorist army showing off U.S. military equipment seized from Iraq troops in fierce fighting near Fallujah. The 10-minute video shows live action from skirmishes in the town of Karmah, just east of Fallujah. The black-clad jihadists are shown using small arms and several rocket-propelled grenades. One scene features an ISIS sniper shooting at Iraqi military positions near the town, and another shows a suicide bomber identified as “Turkistani” being deployed.

MarketWatch.com: 

• TED spread suggests correction may be coming. (graph)

CNBC:

• SEC investigating whether activist funds colluded: Report. (video) The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly probing whether funds run by some activist investors worked together without disclosing their partnerships.

Zero Hedge: 

• Greece Unable To Make €300 Million IMF Payment, Requests "Bundling".

• China Blamed For "Largest Theft Of US Government Data Ever" - 95% Of Federal Employees Affected.

• The "Better Than Cash Alliance" Has An Orwellian Plan.

• 40 Million People Will Be Out Of Work Next Year, OECD Warns. (graph)

• Looking For The Next Big One: Part 1, Orderly Or Not? (graph)

• Volatility Explodes: China, Bunds Crash Then Smash; Dow, S&P500 Tumble Below Key Support Levels. (graph)

• 3 Things: Autos, Old People, Buybacks.

• Vanguard To Buy Mainland China Shares For $69 Billion EM Index Fund.

Business Insider:

• Greece's debt talks are falling apart.

• Head of Silicon Valley's most important startup farm says we're in a 'mega-bubble' that won't last.

• The FDA just backed a drug people are calling 'female viagra'.

• This is the US economy's most disappointing chart. (graph)

• The drop in oil prices is crushing Asia's investment banks.

• The Obama administration is getting impatient with Russia.

Reuters:

• U.S.-based stock funds attract $6.2 bln in latest week -Lipper.

Telegraph: 

• Greece misses IMF payment in warning shot as showdown with Europe escalates. No developed country has ever skipped a payment to the IMF - but Greek sources say they were provoked.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.5 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.75 +2.0 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated at 225K versus 223K in April.

• The Unemployment Rate is estimated at 5.4% versus 5.4% in April.

• Average Hourly Earnings for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in April.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for April is estimated at $16.0B versus $20.523B in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, Eurozone GDP report and the OPEC meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.