Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,000.55 +2.60%

• DJIA 17,006.41 +2.16%

• NASDAQ 4,717.02 +2.77%

• Russell 2000 1,081.46 +4.16%

• S&P 500 High Beta 28.55 +9.83%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 97.61 +8.28% 

• Wilshire 5000 20,560.60 +2.96%

• Russell 1000 Growth 970.12 +2.23%

• Russell 1000 Value 949.61 +3.42%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 532.17 +1.73%

• Solactive US Cyclical 123.90 +3.51%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,010.21 +2.32%

• Transports 7,661.90 +3.55%

• Utilities 632.86 +2.26%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 83.74 +5.52%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 32.40 +7.3%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,101.48 +1.91%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,017.42 -.53%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 231,950 +2.40%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1.0 +123

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 33.33 +48.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 205,856 +29.48%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,776,696 -3.44%

• Total Put/Call .82 -17.17%

• OEX Put/Call 3.14 -21.30%

• ISE Sentiment 69.0 -39.32%

• NYSE Arms .54 -41.30%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.91 -14.18%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.70 -4.31%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.72 -5.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.69 -4.27%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,463.42 +1.12%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.804 Trillion +.94%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$2.087 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 32.0 +2.7%

• AAII % Bears 29.3 -6.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 168.55 +4.25%

• Crude Oil 36.0 +9.65%

• Reformulated Gasoline 133.25 +3.09%

• Natural Gas 1.67 -6.43%

• Heating Oil 115.97 +10.16%

• Gold 1,261.80 +3.25%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 146.33 +4.13%

• Copper 226.50 +7.09%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 167.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 53.75 USD/Ton +11.3%

• Lumber 274.60 +7.85%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,028.76 +2.30%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.5% -10.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1927 -6.59%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.94 -.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.90 +8.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.50 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.80 -.9 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 94.0% chance of no change, 6.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 97.31 -.76%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,456.64 +1.43%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.06 +.58%

• Yield Curve 101.0 +4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.88% +11.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.440 Trillion -.24%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.49 -7.55%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 369.0 -1.04%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 31.78 -2.69%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 67.72 -10.58%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 179.49 -4.71%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 81.89 -4.17%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,167.74 -3.56%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 303.61 -8.45%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 124.40 +.42%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.53% +11.0 basis points

• TED Spread 36.5 +5.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 4.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.0 -4.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 96.02 -12.2%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 2,013.0 -11.03%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 99.53 -14.90%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 339.72 -7.34%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 170.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $3.106 Trillion -.08%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,082.80 +.60%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 270,250 -1,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.64% +2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 496.50 -4.79%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.6 -.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.80% -10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $1.81/gallon +.08/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 342.0 +4.59%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 735.66 -2.11%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -15.38%

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,019 +8.14%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +4.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.0%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +21.5%

• Oil Service +12.8%

• Gold & Silver +8.6%

• Energy +6.4%

• Tobacco +6.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Networking +1.1% 

• Biotech +.9%

• Medical Equipment +.1%

• Drugs unch.

• HMOs -.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (35)

• LXU, X, CKP, APEI, TUMI, DAR, SSYS, CNX, JCP, AMTG, ALRM, TRCO, BSFT, EBIX, NFX, KATE, NRE, VASC, VRA, HLF, FOXF, MGLN, NPO, TASR, TSE, ANF, PVTB, NPTN, AMH, BOBE, PSTG, OFIX, CCOI, ERI and FCPT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)

• WMC, OA, ARI, HABT, SWFT, BGFV, POM, BGS, SMP, PARR, CIEN, DPLO, FSS, VRX and PMC

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on ECB/China Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Oil Bounce, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.28 -2.51%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.23 +.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.65 +2.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.44 -1.19%

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -9.47%

• Total Put/Call .87 +14.47%

• NYSE Arms .47 -35.85% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.18 -2.79%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 2,036.0 -6.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.0 -1.43%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.96 +4.34%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.25 -2.37%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 337.74 -2.32%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.40 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 4.75 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 36.5 +4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.22 +.85%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .27% unch.

• Yield Curve 102.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.75/Metric Tonne +4.98%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.90 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.50 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.80 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.53% -1.0 basis point
• 20.9% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 41.5% chance at June 15 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +145 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/retail/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Said to Intervene in Stocks Ahead of Annual Policy Meeting. (video) China intervened to support its stock market on Friday, helping the benchmark index cap its best weekly gain of 2016 before policy makers meet to approve a five-year road map for the economy, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. State-backed funds bought primarily bank shares, while some local branches of the securities regulator asked listed companies, mutual funds and brokerages to stabilize the market during the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, said the people, who asked not to be named because the matter isn’t public. China’s biggest banks, seen as prime targets for state support because of their large weightings in benchmark indexes, paced gains in the $5.5 trillion market on Friday even as small-capitalization shares tumbled. Authorities have been known to intervene in markets before key national events, with government funds stepping in to boost share prices last August before a military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the World War II victory over Japan. "It looks like the national team has been buying as large caps of the Shanghai index jumped, while small caps fell," said Steve Wang, chief China economist at Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5 percent on Friday, reversing an earlier decline of 1.8 percent, while the ChiNext gauge of smaller companies tumbled 5 percent.
• Brazilian Stocks, Real Rally as Traders Root for Impeachment. (video) Brazil’s stocks led world gains and the real rallied as traders bet that a change in government may be closer than ever after months of political gridlock that has prevented lawmakers from focusing on kick-starting the stalled economy and closing a crippling budget gap. The rally was triggered by news that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was detained for three hours after heavily armed police raided his home in a sweeping corruption probe, fueling speculation that support will grow to impeach his successor, President Dilma Rousseff. While markets have been split in the past about whether a Rousseff ouster would be good or bad, many now say it may be the only way out of the political quagmire.
• From Schengen to ‘Brexit,’ Risks to the Euro Are Stacking Up. (video) It’s not only European Central Bank stimulus that has the potential to hurt the euro. From the possibility that Britain might leave the European Union and the impact of refugees flooding the region, to concerns over the economic outlook and political turmoil in Ireland as well as Spain, the euro is facing a slew of hazards. Set alongside economists’ expectations for lower interest rates and more asset purchases from the ECB, investors are wondering how low it can go.
• Mounting Risks to the EU and Chances of Global Recession. (video)
• European Shares Rise as Investors Take Positives From U.S. Data. European stocks advanced as investors focused on some better-than-expected U.S. payroll data, while also speculating on possible further stimulus from China. A gauge of commodity producers posted the best performance of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, advancing for a sixth day, with Anglo American Plc and Glencore Plc jumping more than 11 percent as raw-materials prices increased. Energy companies rose for a seventh day as oil headed for its longest run of weekly gains since May. The Stoxx 600 added 0.7 percent to 341.8 at the close of trading.
• Vanishing Profits Don't Stop Resurgence in Energy Stocks: Chart.
• Copper Stockpiles in China Surge to Record as Metal Flows East.
• Jim Rogers: There's a 100% Probability of a U.S. Recession Within a Year. (video) But buy the greenback anyway. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Brazilian Police Question Ex-President Lula da Silva in Petrobras Probe. Widening investigation already ensnared several high-ranking members of ruling Workers’ Party.
• Analysis: Jobs Report Could Put April, June Rate Increases in Play.

Fox News:

• Trump cancels CPAC appearance, speech. Republican front-runner Donald Trump said Friday he is canceling his Saturday speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference. Trump was scheduled to speak Saturday morning at the annual gathering of conservative activists held near Washington, D.C. The American Conservative Union, which hosts CPAC, tweeted: “Very disappointed (at)realDonaldTrump has decided at the last minute to drop out of (hash)CPAC -- his choice sends a clear message to conservatives." The four remaining GOP presidential contenders – Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson – are still expected to attend.

CNBC:

• Ex-Fed Plosser: Big rate catch up may be needed. (video)
• Yes, Trump could still lose. From a delegate math perspective, the effort to stop Trump likely depends on the Florida primary on March 15. If outside groups going up with negative ads on Trump, including the Wall Street-funded Our Principles PAC, can move the numbers in the Sunshine State and deliver a win to its home-state senator, Marco Rubio, there is a good chance Trump will fall short of the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright before the convention in Cleveland.

Zero Hedge:

• President Obama Takes Economic Victory Lap (After Biggest Wage Drop On Record). (graph)
• In The Past Year, The U.S. Added 360,000 Waiters And Only 12,000 Manufacturing Workers. (graph)
• Over 80% Of Jobs Added In January Were Minimum Wage Earners. (graph)
• This Wasn't Supposed To Happen: Weekly Earnings Drop Most On Record. (graph)
• February Payrolls Smash Expectations, Surge To 242,000 Even As Hourly Earnings Post Unexpected Drop. (graph)
• BlackRock Suspends ETF Issuance Due To "Surging Demand For Gold". (graph)
• German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash.
• The Best And Worst Performing Hedge Funds In 2016: All Hail The "Tulip Trend Fund". (table)
• WTI Crude Spikes To 2-Month Highs, Best Week Since August. (graph)
• Real Soars To 6-Month Highs After Former Brazilian President Lula Detained. (graph)

Business Insider:

• This is the ultimate sign that the world's 7th largest economy has lost it.
• FUND MANAGER: Investors are totally unprepared for the future of the market. "I think unless policymakers come up with a way of providing more liquidity we're going to see much lower multiples even if the growth or the earnings are OK." But he doesn't think it's going to be "OK" thanks to the rising dollar and the end of quantitative easing. And that means there will be big sections of the capital markets that become un-tradeable. Already lower liquidity is hurting high yield bonds and emerging markets credit. "You can barely sell EM equities," he said.
• Customers are rebelling after Starbucks(SBUX) made a major change to boost profits.
• The boss of BP(BP) just got a huge pay package rise despite the company's worst ever year.

TPM: 

• Tea Party Leader: Trump 'Has No Business Thinking' He's One Of Us. Tea Party activist Jenny Beth Martin had some harsh words for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump during a Friday speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference. “He loves himself more than our country,” the Tea Party Patriot co-founder said. “He loves himself more than the Constitution. He does not love you or me. He does not love the Tea Party. Donald Trump has no business thinking he is Tea Party.” “I have got serious questions about his fidelity to the document Tea Partiers revere,” Martin said, referring to the Constitution. She brought up Trump’s recent claims that he would “open up" libel laws to make it easier to sue journalists, as well as his previous support for universal healthcare and tax increases. Martin framed Trump as a political creature whose beliefs shifted to accommodate his own self-interest. She urged conservatives not to be swayed by his appeal to their “anger.” “When he says he wants to make America great again, we cheer because we all believe America is great,” she said. “We appreciate what sounds like love of country on his part. It's a seductive hitch. I have several friends and colleagues who support him even as I speak. Here is what I think: Donald Trump loves himself first, last, and everywhere in between.”

Reuters:

• China small caps plunge. The Shenzhen market, home to China's smaller listed companies, tanked 2.6 percent, reflecting a broader sell-off in small-caps. On Friday, Shenzhen's start-up board ChiNext collapsed 4.6 percent after a senior Shanghai Stock Exchange official told media in Beijing that preparation for the roll-out of an emerging industry board, the Shanghai counterpart of ChiNext, is proceeding smoothly. A rival in Shanghai has raised fears of a potential surge in the supply of small-caps in the market, knocking ChiNext shares.

Telegraph:

• Gold soars into bull market as global growth fears mount. Gold spot prices climbed to $1,272.77 an ounce on Friday, after settling at $1,264.25 on the previous day. Thursday's close marks a 20pc gain from the most recent low of $1,052.94 in December, meeting the typical definition of a bull market.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -2.6% 2) HMOs -.9% 3) Homebuilders -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• HRB, ERJ, AMBA, HCI, IESC, HIFR, HRTG, LOPE, CALM, UDR, JOBS, BMA, KR, ADC, AGII, AGU, WPPGY, SAFM, CF, HAWK, ANAC, BURL, LVS, RCL, ATRA, EDIT, TDOC and SYMC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XME 2) APA 3) HES 4) KMX 5) EWZ

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HRB 2) AMBA 3) CALM 4) NMBL 5) TSN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 

• Small-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +6.1% 2) Gold & Silver +4.3% 3) Oil Service +4.2% 

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• CKEC, SWHC, SA, PLNT, USLV, X, SSYS, CST, COO, RIG, HPE, NVO, CBD, JOY, MRO, SM, ATW, FCX, RDC, DO, DDD, SWKS and JLL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) AEO 2) LINE 3) DLTR 4) HPE 5) SWHC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) SWHC 2) BRCM 3) JCP 4) SPLK 5) BIG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +45.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 34.3% Declining
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 36.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.3%
• Vix 16.9 +1.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.06 +39.5%
• TRIN/Arms .39 -46.06%