Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Tax Reform Hopes, Short-Covering, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.13 -4.34%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.53 -.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.42 -.54%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.72 -.75%

• ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -34.6%
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -21.90%

• NYSE Arms .55 -42.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.50 -1.96%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 465.0 -.91%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.28 -2.01%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.59 -4.45%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.81 -2.06%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 177.26 -1.86%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.27 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 31.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.75 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.66 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.0% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 81.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.91/Metric Tonne n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.20 +4.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.80 +2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.80 +3.5 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 +2.0 basis points
  
• 15.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 42.5% chance at Dec. 13 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +28 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +56 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -.4% 2) Utilities -.3% 3) Tobacco -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMBA, TECD, HIIQ, COO and SCVL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AMBA 2) JCI 3) RSX 4) PANW 5) SYMC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DRYS 2) AMBA 3) TECD 4) GPRO 5) WFC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.6% 2) Gaming +2.1% 3) Oil Service +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LULU, PANW, OSTK, OXM, ANGO, CLLS, ICFI, RDY, TIS, HIMX, BLUE, NSH, CSII, URGN, SGMO, YNDX, BMS, SGH, RGC, GCO, BIB, ABEO, KNX, FCAU, GM, OSTK, CVI, RGC, PBF and SWFT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AR 2) NTNX 3) GGP 4) RHAT 5) JCI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PANW 2) LULU 3) SCS 4) KORS 5) GM

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 65.0% of Issues Advancing, 35.0% Declining
• 124 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 40.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.3%
• Vix 10.2 -4.0%
• Total Put/Call .74 -29.5%
• TRIN/Arms .70 26.7%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• May Faces Questions on Economic Crime Review as SFO Awaits Fate. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is facing questions on the progress of a wide-ranging review of Britain’s economic crime agencies that could result in the dismantling of the Serious Fraud Office. Nicky Morgan, the chair of Parliament’s Treasury Committee, wrote to May in July for an update on the review after the prime minister failed to respond to inquiries from another lawmaker earlier this year. The letter, published Friday, follows a proposal in the Conservative manifesto to wrap the SFO into the National Crime Agency.
• Asian Stocks Set to Advance on Growth Optimism. Asian stocks are poised to advance after American and Chinese economic data lifted equities on Wall Street and before U.S. jobs numbers ahead of a long weekend. The dollar slumped after Steven Mnuchin said a weaker currency is “somewhat better” for trade. Futures suggested higher opens for equity markets in Japan, Australia and South Korea after the MSCI Asia Pacific Index completed its eighth straight month of gains. The dollar declined on weak inflation data, while 10-year Treasury yields slipped to 2.12 percent. Gasoline continued its march upwards to its highest level in more than two years amid the impact of Harvey. Futures on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced less than 0.1 percent as of 7:21 a.m. Tokyo time and they were up 0.2 percent on the Kospi index in South Korea and 0.1 percent higher on Australia’s main gauge.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Lululemon(LULU) Soars After Shrugging Off Athletic-Industry Woes.

Wall Street Journal:

• 5 Things to Watch in the August Jobs Report.
• Trump’s Winning Tax Argument. The President’s critics will need to raise their game to stop reform.

MarketWatch.com:

• These 2 simple indicators say stocks are headed up.

Fox News:

• Harvey scams abound as crooks prey on disaster victims and altruistic Americans. (video)

CNBC:

• Mnuchin: We have a 'very detailed' tax plan ready. (video)
• Bitcoin's nearly five-fold climb in 2017 looks very similar to tech bubble surge. (video)
• Here are 4 top semiconductor stock ideas for the next year: Jefferies. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Thursday Humor? How The Media Controls Your Mind.
• New Evidence Reveals Comey Exonerated Hillary Before Key Witness Interviews.
• Harvey's Destruction "May Have Solved The Auto Industry's Inventory Problem".
• Bitcoin Surges To New Record High, Overtakes Paypal & Netflix, Nears Morgan Stanley's Market Cap. (graph)
• Did China's Bronze Swan Just Arrive? Copper Inventories Crash Most In History. (graph)
• Peso Tumbles After Mexico Hints May Balk On NAFTA, "Preparing Alternatives".
• Gold Pops, S&P Stops, And Bonds Have Best Month Since Brexit. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The Trump administration just chose four companies to build prototypes of its 30-foot tall border wall.
• Trump is pledging $1 million in personal funds to Harvey relief, White House says.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 -.75 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.48 -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for August is estimated at 180K versus 209K in July.
• The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in July.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in July.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for August is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus 56.3 in July.
• ISM Prices Paid for August is estimated at 62.0 versus 62.0 in July.
• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 97.5 versus a prior estimate of 97.6.
• Construction Spending MoM for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.3% decline in June.
  

Afternoon

• Total Vehicle Sales for August is estimated to fall to 16.6M versus 16.7M in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Auto Sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by pharmaceutical and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Tax Reform Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Oil Gain, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.45 -6.86%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.50 -.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.54 -.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 32.58 -6.51%

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +10.7%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +37.8%

• NYSE Arms .86 -32.06%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.47 -2.47%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 470.0 -.20%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.34 -2.84%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.85 +1.56%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.18 -.79%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.58 -1.50%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.10 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 31.75 +2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 +1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.46 +.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .99% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 79.0-2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.91/Metric Tonne +3.72%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.10 -1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.30 -2.3 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77 +1.0 basis point
  
• 15.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 39.1% chance at Dec. 13 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long