Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,888.77 -1.0%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,444.40 -.05%

• NASDAQ 7,799.35 -3.04%

• Russell 2000 1,635.02 -3.65%

• S&P 500 High Beta 42.96 -2.29%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 163.61 -4.53%

• Wilshire 5000 29,799.40 -1.31%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,532.88 -2.31%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,247.28 -.02%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 549.27 -.95%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.6930 -1.35%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,851.65 -3.13%

• Transports 11,210.90 -1.48%

• Utilities 734.14 +2.05%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 84.10 -1.55%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.08 -4.47%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,257.52 -.14%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,003.02 +.36%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 328,587 -.94%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -522 -421

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.42 -27.88%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 560,085 +5.60%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,225,779 -.14%

• Total Put/Call 1.14 +9.62%

• OEX Put/Call 2.32 -54.51%

• ISE Sentiment 91.0 -28.35%

• NYSE Arms .79 -36.75%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +29.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.05 +2.26%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.56 unch. 

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.93 +5.60%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,190.99 -.05%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.872 Trillion -.41%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$10.545 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 45.7 +26.1%

• AAII % Bears 25.1 -19.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 199.18 +2.07%

• Crude Oil 74.57 +1.36%

• Reformulated Gasoline 209.35 +.27%

• Natural Gas 3.13 +3.93%

• Heating Oil 239.93 +2.16%

• Gold 1,205.60 +1.29%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 187.50 +1.83%

• Copper 276.50 -1.39%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 326.0 USD/Metric Tonne +8.67%

• China Iron Ore Spot 68.33 USD/Metric Tonne +.87%

• Lumber 354.60 +3.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 937.0 +4.7%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.08% +44.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 0.5% +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0249 -3.75%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 66.52 -18.85%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 173.58 +.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.40 +11.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.30 +2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.10 -4.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 96.6% chance of no change, 3.4% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/8

• US Dollar Index 95.68 +.59%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,589.04 -.87%

• Bitcoin/USD 6,536.17 -1.56%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.09 -.85%

• Yield Curve 34.75 +11.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.24% +19.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.135 Trillion -.43%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.52 -1.25%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 200.81 +4.59%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 285.0 +17.25 basis points

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 9.75 +9.74%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 96.59 +19.15%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.42 +3.39%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.31 +5.95%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 150.91 +4.97%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.68 -.04%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 19.75 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -39.25 +2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.89 +2.23%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 387.0 -.26%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 87.10 +3.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 212.41 +9.49%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.714 Trillion +.17%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,100.3 +1.70%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 206,500 +500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.71% -1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 352.60 +.03%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.6 +.4 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.80% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.91/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,554.0 +.91%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 853.61 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +33.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 299,616 +1.75%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -5.6%

Leading Sectors

• I-Banks +3.0%

• Utilities +1.7%

• Banks +1.6%

• Oil Service +1.0%

• Agriculture +.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -5.2% 

• Networking -5.3%

• Retail -5.4%

• Internet -5.5%

• Airlines -5.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (2)

• VBTX and GNBC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (44)

• PCI, ELLI, ALGN, ZG, RTEC, SMAR, ETY, XNCR, MCHP, AYX, ADI, MPWR, ARWR, TEN, CY, AYI, FTNT, CHRS, EMN, MXIM, COST, PLNT, COMM, NWL, INSM, ASMB, SMCI, WLL, ARNA, IPHI, TSLA, IGT, SRPT, ALRM, IIVI, CGNX, SFIX, LITE, PENN, SGMS and IPGP

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.36 +15.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.32 -.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.93 +1.02%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.05 +11.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +22.7%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.13 +6.6%

• NYSE Arms .69 +42.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.26 +1.83%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 386.0 +1.59%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.05 +1.86%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 285.0 +5.25 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.75 +.57%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.97 +2.14%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.68 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 19.75 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -39.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.15 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.21% unch.

• Yield Curve 34.0 +2.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 68.33 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.4 -4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.3 +4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.1 -1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
• 76.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 78.0% chance at Jan. 30th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -123 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -416 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -3.5% 2) Semis -2.8% 3) Robotics -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LMAT, CUTR, PDI, IPGP, DLPH, PENN, COST, SFIX, ASGN, ILMN, COMM, ARNA, NWL, ASMB, ERI, COHR, IIVI, ALRM, LITE, SMCI, SGMS, ADMS and ARCB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AMJ 2) FMC 3) RSX 4) ADI 5) NWL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LMAT 2) DLPH 3) SMCI 4) ADMS 5) CUTR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.2% 2) REITs +.3% 3) Papers +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SGH, ATRC, VBTX, CHEF, SIR, PYX, NOA, GNBC, IIPR, CP, TREE, KB, SERV, LLY, ISCA, NVO, ILPT, HSIC, BOLD, CHL, NBLX and COLL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BKS 2) GOV 3) NWL 4) TPX 5) PYX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SGH 2) EMKR 3) CP 4) QNST 5) AMMX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 49.4% of Issues Advancing, 47.1% Declining
• 19 New 52-Week Highs, 218 New Lows
• 44.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.4%
• Vix 14.3 +.6%
• Total Put/Call .92 -13.2%
• TRIN/Arms .67 +38.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.75 +1.75 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 9.75 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.0 -.02%.
• FTSE 100 futures -1.26%.
• S&P 500 futures +.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for August is estimated at -$53.6B versus -$50.1B in July.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for September is estimated to fall to 185K versus 201K in August.
•  The Unemployment Rate for September is estimated to fall to 3.8% versus 3.9% in August.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for September is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in August.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for August is estimated at $15.0B versus $16.64B in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking and German Factory Orders report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.