Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Virus Mandate/Lockdown Worries, Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Oil Decline, Commodity/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 +6.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,767.0 -117.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.81 -.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.5 +1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -6.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.8 +35.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.54 +.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 449.0 +1.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.22 +.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.29 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.82 +.32%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.41 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 unch.

• TED Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.75 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.05 USD/Metric Tonne -1.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.6 -3.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -8.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 279 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +16/100K people
• 52% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +3.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.5% 2) Alt Energy -2.3% 3) Oil Service -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GRWG, SOFI, CARA, AXSM, PING, PTRA, TSP, ORMP, HYFM and OSCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SESN 2) BBWI 3) BKR 4) EWT 5) RUN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SESN 2) MNTS 3) NIO 4) APPH 5) JD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +1.1% 2) Medical Equipment +.9% 3) Healthcare Providers +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• COLL, TVTX, RDNT, SONO, KRA, AMRS, HCC TPB, EOLS, CCRN, FUV, CMBM, DDS, OM, BJ, ACRE and DOCS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TVTX 2) PXD 3) FANG 4) D 5) DHI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) COLL 2) AQSP 3) LIVE 4) SONO 5) DXPE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 58.9% Declining
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 73.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,733.0 -151.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,319 -.38%
  
• Vix 16.8 +8.5%
• Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.9 +41.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                       

• Taliban Set to Retake Afghanistan After 20 Years in Shadows. 
• U.S. Exit From Kabul Prompts Lawmakers’ Alarm Over Taliban.
• Taliban Reach Kabul, Ghani Departs as U.S. Evacuates Embassy.  
• Opinion: The U.S. Can’t Walk Away From Afghanistan, Writes Mike Bloomberg.  
• What Next for Afghanistan Under the Taliban.
• How China Evergrande Landed In Crisis Mode Again: A Timeline.
• China Bonds Face Week of Reckoning as Loans, Key Data Come Due.
• U.S. Yields Set to Tighten Grip on Emerging-Market Currencies.  
• Iran Sees Record Deaths as Delta Engulfs Asia: Virus Update.   
• Stocks Set for Cautious Open on China, Delta Risks: Markets Wrap.
• Mideast Stocks Gain as Egypt Extends Winning Streak: Inside EM.    
• Oil Opens the Week With a Decline on Sustained Delta Concerns.
• Cheap Energy Stocks Shrug Off Climate Alarm With Cash Flowing.
• Woodside in Advanced Talks to Buy A$20B BHP Oil Unit: AFR. 
• Fauci Says U.S. Can Move Quickly to Offer Third Vaccine Shots.   
• Biden to Increase Food Stamp Benefits by Most in Program History.   
• Hyatt to Buy KKR-Backed Apple Leisure for $2.7 Billion in Cash.  
• Ex-Regulators Earn $460,000 to Help Firms Decode China Crackdown.  
• Fed’s Kashkari Wants ‘Few More’ Strong Job Reports Before Taper.

Wall Street Journal:

• Afghan Government Collapses as Taliban Take Kabul.
• Taliban Takeover Worries Governments in the Region, Europe That Chaos Will Spread. 
• Biden’s Afghanistan Surrender.
• Live Afghanistan Updates.
• Video: People Rush to Kabul’s Airport.
• The World Needs to Know What Happened at the Wuhan Lab.
• Biden’s Afghanistan Exit Raises Questions About His Foreign-Policy Record.
• Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State.
• Covid Anxiety and Fear of the Base.
• Apple’s Next iPhone Is Coming Soon. Here’s What to Expect.
• Haiti Earthquake Death Toll Rises to Over 700.
• Nancy Pelosi Looks at Advancing Infrastructure and Budget Framework Simultaneously.
• Will Biden Bring an End to Reagan’s Era of Prosperity?
• Carvana’s Success Rides on Used-Car Loans.
• China’s Corporate Crackdown Adds to Junk-Bond Distress,
• Restaurants Become the New Vaccine Enforcers.
• Homeland Security Mulls Outside Firms to Analyze Social Media.
• Something Is Awry in the Treasury Market This Summer.
• A Chinese Warning for U.S. Tech.

Fox News:

• Biden's 'America's back promise' questioned as brutal killers take war-torn country.
• Taliban executions, beheadings in Afghanistan strike fear among those stuck inside country.
• Afghan president flees country as Taliban storms Kabul, US embassy rushes to evacuate.
• Former CIA Director David Petraeus calls Afghanistan situation ‘catastrophic’.
• Ted Lieu gave $50K in campaign cash to university his son is about to attend. 
• Americans try to shield themselves from death as Kabul airport reportedly takes 'fire'. 
• Pompeo: Biden 'failed' in Afghanistan withdrawal plan, is 'pathetic' for blaming Trump.

CNBC:

• New travel apps match you with the trips you really want or can afford.
• U.S. moves Afghan embassy to the airport as Taliban insurgents arrive in Kabul.
• Fred strengthens to a tropical storm as it heads to the U.S. coast. 
• Meet the company making mouse meat cat treats without harming animals.
• Musk says Starship orbital stack to be ready for flight in few weeks.
• New York City vaccine mandate presents new challenges for restaurants. 
• Economic ‘nirvana’ should usher in roaring ’20s: longtime bull Ed Yardeni. 

Zero Hedge: 

• Watch: 100s Of US Citizens Scramble Aboard C-17 As Taliban Ready To Declare "Islamic Emirate Of Afghanistan".
• Afghan President Ghani Flees Country As Taliban Enter Kabul. 
• Study Finds Children Born During Lockdown Have Lost IQ Points, Impaired Cognitive Functioning
• 'Named & Shamed' - IRS Lists The Record Number Of Wealthy Americans Becoming Ex-Americans In 2020.  
• Politicians Who Claim To Be Serious About Stopping Covid Better Get Serious About The Border.
• "Get Your Sh*t Together" - Angry American Airline Customers Hit With Travel Delays Due To Labor Shortage.
• Former CIA Officer: "The Most Infamous & Devastating Press Conference Ever Held By An American President".
• Goldman: This Is The Biggest Equity (BTD) Dynamic Of 2021.
• Joint Chiefs Inform Senators Terror Threat From Afghanistan "Moved Up".
• As Main Street Confidence Crashes, Wall Street Is The Most Bullish In 20 Years.
• Bulls Charge Ahead On Hopes Fed Stands Pat.
• First Year Evercore Analysts Are Now Making $120,000 Per Year.
• A Message From France.
• Do Masks Work? A Review Of The Evidence.
• From PsyOp To MindWar.
• Unlike The Fed, Brazil Central Bank Vows To Do Whatever It Takes To Tame Soaring Inflation.
• The Propaganda Multiplier.
• Biden Administration Wants Airlines Off Fossil Fuels By 2050.
• Rabobank: The World's Biggest Oil Consumer Showed Its Political Vulnerability To Higher Oil Prices And Skyrocketing Inflation.
• Visualizing The Taliban's Advance In Afghanistan.
  

NewsMax:

• Trump: Biden Losing Afghanistan 'Through Weakness, Incompetence'.
• McCarthy: Afghanistan Takeover 'an Embarrassment' to US.
• US Diplomats Evacuate Afghan Capital by Chopper. 
• US Officials Ordered to Shelter in Place as Gunfire Sounds.
• Sen. Blackburn: Biden Is 'Weak,' Taliban 'Not Fearing Him'. 
• Pelosi Blasted for Statement Praising Biden 'Wisdom'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Vax Pass Hits Canada: Tens of Thousands March in Montreal Against Vaccine Passports Ahead of Sept. 1 Rollout – (Video). 
• Coming Soon to Kabul: Women Beaten with Sticks, Shot in the Head in Stadium Executions (VIDEO).
• Biden Admin Ordered All American Flags Destroyed at US Embassy in Kabul.
• Nevada Schools Will Begin Using Soviet-Style Propaganda Posters to Scare Students Into Complying With Mask/Vax Mandates.
• LARRY ELDER RISING: Liberal Media Now Openly Begging People Of California Not To Recall Newsom.
• DHS: Extremists Against COVID Vaccines, Stolen Election Pose National Security Threat Ahead of 9/11.
• Taliban Leaders Enter Presidential Palace in Kabul – Afghan President Flees Country #BidenEffect (VIDEO).
• ‘How Did Biden Get This So Wrong?’ – Jake Tapper Confronts Secretary Blinken on Biden’s Afghanistan Blunder: “Tragic Foreign Policy Disaster” (VIDEO).
• Georgia Fulton County Elections Chief Ralph Jones Resigns – He Ran the Late Night Ballot Dump Operation in Atlanta.
• White House Posts Photo of Feeble Joe Biden Sitting Alone as Afghanistan Falls to Taliban – Outs Doha Station, CIA.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 -.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.79 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,882.0 -2.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.12%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (TAL)/-.02

After the Close:

• (FN)/1.22
• (RBLX)/.24
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Aug. is estimated to fall to 26.3 versus 43.0 in July.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Wholesale Price report and the Needham Virtual Med Tech/Diagnostics Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Afghanistan’s Ghani Appeals for Help as Taliban Near Kabul.
• China Has Thousands of Hydropower Projects It Doesn’t Want.     
• China’s New Covid Outbreak Puts Recovery at Risk: Eco Week.
• Congressman’s Stock Sale Puts Thousands in Bank of China Account.    
• Major Earthquake Hits Haiti Causing Death, Widespread Damage.
• French Protest Covid Pass Again; German Cases Soar: Virus Update.   
• Supply-Chain Shocks Keep Hitting the World’s Factory Floors.
• Wall Street Is the Most Bullish on Stocks in Almost Two Decades.  
• S&P 500 Snubbing Dire View in Bonds Has Earnings on Its Side.  
• Afghanistan in Crisis, China Hostage Diplomacy: Weekend Reads.  
• Summers Says ‘Bizarre’ for U.S. to Borrow So Much in Short-Term.  
• Wheat Supplies Are Shrinking and It’s Bad News for Bread Prices.
• Biden Said to Pick Behnam as Top U.S. Derivatives Regulator.
• Bond Market Like a Coiled Spring Before Long-Awaited Fed Confab.

Wall Street Journal:

• Taliban Seize Major City as They Advance Toward Kabul.
• Afghan-Americans Scramble to Aid Families in Homeland.
• Afghanistan: Live Updates.
• New Covid-19 Hospitalizations for 30- to 39-Year-Olds Hit Record Rate.
• U.S. Border Businesses Miss Mexicans Shut Out by Covid-19 Travel Bans.
• Severe Drought Could Threaten California’s Power Supply for Years to Come.
• Intel CEO Talks Up Subsidies for Pricey Chip Plants.
• Huawei Accused in Suit of Installing Data ‘Back Door’ in Pakistan Project.
• Oil Giants Turn to Startups for Low-Carbon Energy Ideas.
• In a Hybrid Office, Remote Workers Will Be Left Behind.
• Your Child’s First Smartphone: A Guide to the Proper Age, Phone Type and Parental Controls.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (HPP), (BXP), (ROST), (WW), (SBUX), (RUTH), (MSFT), (CSCO), (CARR), (LII), (TT), (JCI), (NOK) and (SPB).
• Had bearish commentary on .
  

MarketWatch.com:      

• 5 reasons why AMD stock could rally more than 20% from here, according to Bank of America analyst.

Fox News:  

• Taliban executions, beheadings in Afghanistan strike fear among those stuck inside country
• Biden admin takes aim at DeSantis with cash offer for school districts that buck ban on mask mandates.
• SEE IT: WWII vet sings national anthem in viral moment millions have watched. 
• Parents take action over fear of long-term COVID impact on children.

Newsmax:     

• Rep. Turner: Biden Left Afghan Gov't With No Plan to Defend Country.
• 9/11 2.0? Left to Falter, Afghanistan Will Become New Base for al Qaeda, UK Fears.
• Rep. Babin: DHS Secretary 'a Disaster for Our Border'.
• Afghanistan President Appeals for Help as Taliban Near Kabul.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Mobilizes 5,000 Troops For Urgent Afghan Evacuation.
• Biden "Relaxes" On Vacation While 'Saigon Moment' Looms In Afghanistan.
• Rhode Island Teachers' Union Sues Mother For Daring To Ask To See Her Kindergartener's Curriculum.
• The Great Parent Revolt.
• China 'Ready' To Recognize Taliban If Afghan Government Ousted.
• Double Trouble: Tropical Storm Sets Crosshairs On Haiti Amid Earthquake Chaos.
• A Bill Has Been Introduced In Congress That Would Ban Tens Of Millions Of Americans From Flying.
• American Railroads Warn STB About "Unintended Consequences".
• "I Feel Like I Am Living In Crazytown".
• Superspreader-In-Chief? Martha's Vineyard Sees Spike In Covid Cases After Obama Birthday Bash.
• Hell Came: Millennials Lost "Millions" On Bill Ackman's SPAC Implosion.
• Haiti Hit With 7.2-Magnitude Earthquake; Massive Devastation; Tsunami Threat Issued.
• The Problem With Climate-Change Politics.
• Russian & Chinese Armies Pledge Deepened Military Cooperation As Afghanistan Unravels.
• T Is For Tyranny: How Freedom Dies From A To Z.
• India's Ivermectin Blackout.
• Visualizing US Oil Production By State.
• Gender Reassignment Surgery Is Child Abuse, Says Texas Commissioner.
• Vaccine Expert Vanden Bossche Calls For "Immediate Halt" To Vaccinations, Says They Encourage "Escape Mutant" Variants.
• Whopping 2.8 Tons Of Meth, Fentanyl Seized In California.
• CIA Mulls New China Mission Center To "Out-Spy Beijing".
• China: The Regime's Managed Economy Is Stagnating.
• Baidu Says Its Robotaxis Will Be Cheaper Than Human Drivers By 2025.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• University of South Carolina Forced to Cancel Mask Mandate After Attorney General Says It’s Illegal.
• Federal Judge Kathleen Cardone Extends Her Order Blocking Texas from Restricting Illegal Alien Travel in the State.
• Obama Variant: 60+ Test Positive on Martha’s Vineyard Week After Mask-less Birthday Weekend; Almost Half of New Cases are Fully Vaccinated.
• Chicago Police Officer Dragged By Vehicle During Traffic Stop (VIDEO). 
• Uber Drops Commercial Featuring Former Quarterback Jay Cutler Because He is Against Masking Kids.
• Kansas Math Teacher Fined for Resigning Over Mask Mandate and Critical Race Theory Teachings.
• County GOP Censures Lindsey Graham Over Infrastructure Bill Vote.

The Epoch Times:

• Australian Lawmakers Urge Diplomatic Boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics.
• Chinese Regime Seeks Advantage in US Departure of Afghanistan.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity.
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).