Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Virus Mandate/Lockdown Worries, Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Oil Decline, Commodity/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 +6.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,767.0 -117.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.81 -.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.5 +1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -6.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.8 +35.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.54 +.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 449.0 +1.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.22 +.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.29 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.82 +.32%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.41 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 unch.

• TED Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.75 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.05 USD/Metric Tonne -1.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.6 -3.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -8.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 279 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +16/100K people
• 52% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +3.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long