Stocks Finish Slightly Lower on US Economic Data, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Tech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +4.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,920.0 +76.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.04 +.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.52 -.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.6 unch.

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0  -23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 +14.5%

• NYSE Arms .80 -36.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.51 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 413.63 -.85%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.93 -.74%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.45 -2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.03 +.15%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.52 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 unch.

• TED Spread 8.25 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.5 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.46 +.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 107.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 147.35 USD/Metric Tonne -4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.3 -5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.8 -6.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -3.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.2% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 339 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +6/100K people
• 64% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +16 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long