Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Rising China/Taiwan Tensions, Fed Taper Worries, Healthcare/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -1.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,683.0 +81.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.94 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.72 -.46%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.5 +2.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0  +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%

• NYSE Arms .75 -26.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.6 -.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 448.03 -.40%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.36 -.54%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.72 -3.56%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.20 +.71%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.35 -.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 6.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  76.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 -1.75 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.53 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 106.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 143.260 USD/Metric Tonne -9.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.1 -4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.1 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.4 +1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 293 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +6/100K people
• 55% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -138 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long