Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Fed Taper Worries, Commodity/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.7 +.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,287.0 -117.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.42 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +3.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.5 +.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0  -9.1 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +12.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +17.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.66 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 460.30 +2.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.16 +1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 -7.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.03 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.32 -.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 8.5 +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.5 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 -.25 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.15 -.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 134.45 USD/Metric Tonne -7.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -37.1 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.2 -.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.9 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 296 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +3/100K people
• 56% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -51 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long