Stocks Slightly Lower Mid-Day on Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Fed Taper Worries, Oil Decline, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 +8.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,706.0 -161.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.58 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 +4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  -24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 +2.5%

• NYSE Arms .93 +10.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.14 +.44%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 431.25 -.21%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.06 +.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.28 -.72%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.84 +.18%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.55 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.75 basis points

• TED Spread 7.75 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.74 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 153.80 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.4 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.2 +.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 325 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +4/100K people
• 61% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long