Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Virus Mandate/Shutdown Worries, Earnings Jitters, Commodity/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,591.0 -17.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.82 +.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.3 +.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0  +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +1.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.7 +114.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.96 +.40%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 440.32 +.51%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.94 -.31%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.1 -.292%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.25 +.83%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.20 +.29%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 7.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.25 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.05 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 101.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 174.25 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.8 +8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.8 -6.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.7 -2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 192 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +10/100K people
• 36% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +6 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -210 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long