Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Declining Fed Taper Worries, Diminished Virus Lockdown Fears, Oil Gain, Commodity/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -8.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,637.0 +242.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.99 +.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -.11%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 -1.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0  -35.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -16.8%

• NYSE Arms .65 +1.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.6 -2.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 454.50 -1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.06 -.47%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.38 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.3 -.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 8.5 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  76.5 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 +.75 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.41 +.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.05 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.8 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.6 -12.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.9 -2.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 314 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +10/100K people
• 59% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +126 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.2% 2) Homebuilding -.6% 3) REITs -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OSCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IVR 2) CL 3) PANW 4) SPXS 5) FBRX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SJT 2) LIVE 3) ZY 4) DKNG 5) LYFT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +5.4% 2) Gold & Silver +4.5% 3) Gaming +3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CLSK, ALXO, ASTR, MSGE, DVAX, STEM, ETWO, TGTX, EDIT, AXSM, KURA, DCPH, ARNA, AGFY, BYRN, RCKT, TTCF, CFLT, OLMA, MGNI, ACVA, FATE, PRAX, XLNX, MARA, MXIM, AMR, DOCN, RADI and EVER
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HBAN 2) ACM 3) AMRS 4) AGEN 5) PSTG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CIO 2) ALXO 3) XERS 4) DNUT 5) OXY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 64.6% of Issues Advancing, 31.5% Declining
• 91 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 65.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,613.0 +218.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,650 +.51%
  
• Vix 17.1 -7.9%
• Total Put/Call .71 -25.3%
• TRIN/Arms .61 -4.7%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• U.S. Sees ‘Acute’ ISIS Threat at Kabul Airport, Biden Aide Says.
• G7 to Convene; Pentagon Drafts Airlines: Afghanistan Update.  
• German Exporters Face Rising Pressure From China in Home Market.    
• Xi Doubles Mentions of ‘Common Prosperity,’ Warning China’s Rich.
• China Plays the Long Game in Shift to ‘Cross-Cyclical’ Strategy.
• China Huarong Remains on CreditWatch at S&P Despite Bailout Deal. 
• Stocks Set to Climb After U.S. Rally on Dip Buying: Markets Wrap.
• Dubai Stocks Lead Mideast Gains; Saudi Shares Drop: Inside EM.   
• Brent Oil Edges Higher Following Worst Losing Streak Since 2018.  
• Powell Confronts Fed’s Taper Ambitions at Symposium: Eco Week.
• The Vaccinated Are Worried and Scientists Don’t Have Answers.
• Beating Back Delta Will Take Extra Covid Shot for Privileged Few.
• Southern New England Ports Shut as Hurricane Henri Approaches.  
• Small-Cap Biotech Stocks Play Catch Up With Industry Leaders.   
• Education Sector Sees Cyber Attacks Jump, Check Point Says.  
• Bitcoin Knocks on Door of $50,000 After Rising Above Resistance.   
• Dividends Roar Back With Janus Predicting Near-Record Payouts.  
• Powell’s Second-Term Chances Rise With Key Yellen Endorsement.

Wall Street Journal:

• What We Still Don’t Know About the Fed’s Bond-Buying Spree.
• Unemployment Benefits Forever?
• Cryptocurrency Miners Move Out of China.
• Remote Work May Last for Two Years, Worrying Some Bosses.
• Why Grocery Stores Don’t Have Everything You Want.
• For Buy Now, Pay Later, Investors Need to Shop For Best Deals.
• Solar Power Booms in Georgia, Where It Isn’t Mandated.
• Tropical Storm Henri Leaves Thousands Without Power.
• Dancing to the Taliban Timetable.
• All the President’s Yes-Men.
• America Looks More Like Europe All the Time.

Fox News:

• DAVIS HANSON: Amid mounting crises, there's only one reason this president hasn't been impeached yet.
• How this large veterans group is guiding interpreters around Taliban to safety.

NY Post: 

• US companies riddled with members of Chinese Communist Party: Devine. Boeing(BA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Pfizer(PFE) are just three US companies that have employed dozens of CCP members in their Chinese facilities, the database reveals.

CNBC:

• President Biden’s job approval ratings drop as Covid cases rise and crisis in Afghanistan mounts.

Zero Hedge: 

• Biden Stands By Kabul Evacuation, Laughs When Confronted With Poll Suggesting Majority No Longer See Him As "Competent Or Effective".
• Taliban Reportedly Sets Woman On Fire Because They Were "Dissatisfied With Her Cooking".
• Connecticut Allows Patients, Their Doctors, & Local Health Officials To Access COVID-19 Vaccination Records.
• Australia Rethinks Covid Strategy After Cases Hit Record Despite Draconian Lockdowns.
• Taiwan Says China Is Trying To "Emulate" What The Taliban Did In Afghanistan.
• Sen. Joe Manchin Dares To Admit: "The Coal Industry Has To Be Saved".
• Biden Security Advisor Warns Of "Acute" Terror Risk At Kabul Airport As Blinken Says Americans On Their Own Getting There.
• "Ultimate Insult": Taliban Mocks Historic Iwo Jima Flag Raising Moment With Own Photo. 
• What If Everyone Actually Had To Work To Get Paid?
• US Warns American Citizens To Avoid Kabul Airport One Day After Biden Reassures That All Is Well.
• "Get Out Now" - Tropical Storm Henri To Make Imminent Landfall In Northeast.
• Delta Variant Fear-Mongering Begins To Dent Travel Industry.
• Luongo Warns "What Leverage Giveth On The Way Up, It Takes Away 10x Faster On The Way Down".
• The Dollar's Debt Trap.
• School Board Recall Attempts Surge in 2021 Amid COVID Closures & CRT Fears.
• Snyder: What Is America Going To Look Like If This Continues?
• LA Times Dubs CA Recall Frontrunner Larry Elder "The Black Face Of White Supremacy".
• Pentagon Confirms Americans Have Been Beaten In Afghanistan.
• Canadian Mortgage Debt Rises Fastest Since 2007.
• US Travel Agencies' Air Ticket Sales Again Surpass $4 Billion Despite Delta Fears.

MarketWatch.com:          

• Opinion: American consumers’ gray mood could put the S&P 500 in the green over the next 6 months.
  

NewsMax:

• Pentagon Drafts US Airlines to Help With Afghanistan Evacuees.
• 'Imbecilic': Ex-UK Leader Slams Biden's Afghan Withdrawal.
• Pompeo: Biden Creating 'Debacle of Significant Proportions'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Kamala Harris Laughs When Reporter Starts to Ask Her About Americans Trapped in Afghanistan (VIDEO).
• UPDATE: Only the Servants Wear Masks at Pelosi’s Chi-chi Napa Brunch (VIDEO).
• ‘Why is Biden Misleading Americans?’ – CNN’s Brianna Keilar Confronts Joe Biden’s Inept NatSec Advisor (VIDEO).
• Destroying the Economy – Democrat’s Hope to Pass $5.4 Trillion in New Spending And Yet the Debt Limit Is Not Addressed.
• Taliban Terrorists Take 20 Children Hostage — Give Fathers 4 Hours to Surrender or the Children Will Be Killed (VIDEO).
• “Utterly Horrendous… People Who Have Done Multiple Tours Say It’s the Worst Thing They Have Ever Seen – People Dying Outside Airport Gate” – Sky Reporter Tells of Horror Outside Airport (VIDEO).
• Former British Prime Minister Blasts Joe Biden for “Imbecilic” Withdrawal from Afghanistan – A “Tragic, Dangerous and Unnecessary” Plan.
• As Biden Continues Obama’s Plan to Close Gitmo, Hundreds of Former Detainees Have Returned to Terrorism and are Killing Americans Again.
• “A Failure Almost Impossible to Understand” – Actress Angelina Jolie Launches Instagram Account to Rip Joe Biden and Share Powerful Letter from Afghan Girl.
• More Election Fraud In the California Recall Election – Man Arrested with a Firearm, Drugs and Thousands of Ballots.

The Epoch Times:

• US Will Heighten Efforts to Counter China in Wake of Afghanistan, Experts Say.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 35.0 -.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.21 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,448.0 +53.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.35%.
• S&P 500 futures +.09%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (JD)/2.23
• (TAL)/-.02
  

After the Close:

• (PANW)/1.44
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July.
  

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for August is estimated to fall to 62.5 versus 63.4 in July.
• The Markit US Services PMI for August is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus 59.9 in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 5.83M versus 5.86M in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report and the Eurozone IFO report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• The Latest: Briton in Kabul Says Situation 'Getting Worse'.   
• Islamic State May Pose Threat to Americans: Afghanistan Update.
• Even After $1.5 Trillion Rout, China Tech Traders See More Pain.
• China Huarong Remains on CreditWatch at S&P Despite Bailout Deal.
• China Allows Couples Third Child Amid Demographic Crisis.
• Hundreds Arrested, Fined During Australia Lockdown Protests.
• Science Can’t Keep Up With Virus, Creating Worry for Vaccinated.  
• NYC Hosts ‘Homecoming’ Mega Concert in Defiance of Delta Spread.
• Wall Street Just as Baffled About Markets as It Was Last Year.
• U.S. Exits Afghanistan in a Storm of Confusion: Weekend Reads.  
• Peloton App Hints a Rowing Machine Will Arrive Soon: Report. 
• Janet Yellen to Back Jerome Powell Reappointment for Fed Chair.

Wall Street Journal:

• Uber-Backed Ballot Measure Ruled Unconstitutional.
• Steelmakers Grapple With How to Cut Emissions.
• Taliban Battles Militia in First Significant Clashes Since Takeover.
  
• Citadel to Redeem About $500 Million from Melvin Capital.
• Cruise Line Investors Are Boarding the Wrong Ships.
• Jack Ma’s Costliest Lesson: China Has Only One Leader.
• Biden to Nominate Nicholas Burns as U.S. Ambassador to China.

CNBC:

• Fed officials will seek to avoid a tantrum as they keep ‘taper talk’ going at Jackson Hole.
• Inside Afghanistan’s cryptocurrency underground as the country plunges into turmoil.
• Tropical Storm Henri is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it barrels toward the Northeast.
• Porn made OnlyFans a powerhouse. Now it’s banning sexual content after pressure from banks.
• QR codes have replaced restaurant menus. Industry experts say it isn’t a fad.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (VAC), (SFIX), (BAH), (AMED), (AMRS), (JBHT), (TREX), (UPWK), (STAA), (SITE), (CVNA), (WEN) and (BA).

MarketWatch.com:      

• FDA is expected to give full approval of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine next week.   
• Opinion: Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul.

NY Post: 

• US companies riddled with members of Chinese Communist Party: Devine. Boeing(BA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Pfizer(PFE) are just three US companies that have employed dozens of CCP members in their Chinese facilities, the database reveals.

Fox News: 

• US citizens warned to avoid airport as thousands wait for Biden to make good on evacuation pledge.
• Taliban unit wearing US gear appears to mock iconic American wartime photo.
• Sickening reason why barbaric Taliban fighters allegedly set woman on fire. 
• EXCLUSIVE: Interpreter makes gut-wrenching plea as Taliban hunts down people who worked with US.
• ISIS triggered sudden warning for Americans to avoid Kabul airport: official.

Newsmax:    

• Trump: Biden Must Apologize to US for Afghanistan Chaos.  
• Biden Told Allies in June Kabul Would Stay Stable After Exit: Report.
• Taliban Killings Fuel Fear, Drive More Chaos Outside Airport.

Zero Hedge:

• US Warns American Citizens To Avoid Kabul Airport One Day After Biden Reassures That All Is Well. 
• CDC Buries Study Finding That Student Masking Has 'No Statistically Significant Benefit'.
• Biden And Pelosi Set To Impose Tax Hikes On Small Businesses.
• "The Scientific Process Is Short-Circuited By Politics" - Startling Admission From Scientists Jeopardizes Biden's Boosters. 
• White House Omits Macron Plea For 'Moral Responsibility' In Afghanistan; ABC Cuts 'Unflattering' Interview Segments.
• Aussie Cops Pledge To Unleash "Full Force" As Large Anti-Lockdown Protests Turn Violent.
• Northeast Issues Warnings As Henri Approaches; Nuke Plants In Path.
• Germany's Largest Amusement Park Segregates Vaxx'd From Unvaxx'd With Colored Wristbands.
• Iran's Huge Caspian Gas Find Is A Geopolitical Gamechanger.
• Afghan Aftermath: Europe Braces For Another US-Induced Migration Crisis.
• Fear Porn Inc.
• US Customs In Alaska Seizes 3,000 Fake CDC Vaxx Cards From China.
• It's Time To Purge The "Experts".
• ATF Now Labels FRT-15 A Machine Gun, Turning Law Abiding Citizens Into Criminals.
• Semi Shortage Continues To Sting Auto Production, With VW And Toyota Cutting Output.
• Democrats' "Defund-The-Police" Debacle.
• A "Summer Chill" Looms For Consumers As Child Tax Credits Fail To Boost Spending.
• San Francisco Prepares To Suspend Cops And Firefighters Who Refuse To Disclose Vaccination Status.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Report: British Troops Are Now Rescuing Americans Trapped in Kabul After Joe Biden Refuses to Extricate Thousands of Stranded Americans. 
• It’s Worse than We Thought: Taliban Seized 75,000 Vehicles, 600,000 Weapons and 200 Aircraft in Afghanistan Leftover by Biden Admin.
• Bloody, Violent, Chaotic Scene as Shots Are Fired Outside Kabul Airport #BidenEffect (VIDEO).
• Media Turns Against Biden, But Tucker Isn’t Buying It: “Something Else Is Going On”. 
• Biden State Department Sent Out BLANK US Visas, Which Were Printed and Filled Out by Everyone in Kabul – Including Taliban (VIDEO).
• Biden Effect: Americans Told NOT to Travel to Kabul Airport as Situation Deteriorates — Over 10,000 Americans Trapped in Afghanistan.
• With $5 Million US Bounty on His Head Khalil Haqqani Holds Meetings with Top Taliban Officials in Afghanistan, Walks the Streets Freely Speaking to Locals in Latest Affront to Biden Regime.
• Are Effective COVID Medications Like Ivermectin Being Suppressed Because Their Successful Treatments Could Cause Vaccines to Lose Government Funding?
• Taliban 2.0: ‘Special Forces’ Unit Patrolling Streets of Kabul Wear US Military Uniforms and Left Behind Body Armor.
• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Contradicts Joe Biden, Says Americans Trying to Get to Kabul Airport Have Been “Beaten” by Taliban.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime ‘Dreams of Emulating the Taliban,’ Taiwan Says.
• ‘There Are Checkpoints at Every Corner’: Chinese Trucker Describes Expansive Surveillance System in Xinjiang.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).