Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +19.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 71.4% of Issues Advancing, 25.3% Declining
• 10 New 52-Week Highs, 356 New Lows
• 23.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 35.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,895.0 +87.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,942 -1.7%
  
• Vix 30.9 -6.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.02 +3.0%
• TRIN/Arms .26 -26.9%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Russia Trains Missiles on Ukraine’s Quiet Zone to Target Trade.
• Ukraine, Russia Gas Clash Raises Threat to Europe’s Supply.  
• China’s Dollar-Bond Misery Is Set to Deepen With Fed Tightening.
  
• Don’t Expect Chinese Stimulus to Save the Global Economy.
• Stocks Steady in Asia Ahead of Key Inflation Data: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Extends Losses Below $100 Ahead of US Inflation Figures.  
• US Crude Output Growth Expected to Slow Amid Soaring Costs.
• Wall Street Is Trying Desperately to Catch Up With Stock Rout.
• House Set to Vote on $40 Billion Ukraine Aid Bill Tuesday.  
• BlackRock’s Star Trader Goes Net Short as Hedge Fund Loss Mounts.  
• Disney’s Copyright Protections Are Latest Target of Republicans.  
• Apollo Plans to Lead $1 Billion Financing for Musk’s Twitter Bid.  
• SEC Chief Gensler Worries Crypto Exchanges Bet Against Clients. 
• The Bubble Portfolio Is Getting Absolutely Crushed.  
• Meme Stock Euphoria Goes Bust as Group Drops to All-Time Low.
• Fed Officials Back Half-Point Hikes, Mester Open to Doing More.  
• SPAC Retreat Shows Wall Street Awakens to Risk, Gensler Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• Senate Confirms Lisa Cook to Federal Reserve Board.
• ‘Buy the Dip’ Believers Tested by Market’s Steep Drops.
• President Costanza Takes On Inflation. Biden lays out his plan on prices, but he’d do better if he did the opposite.
• Taliban Afghanistan Keeps Getting Worse. Americans still can’t get out as restrictions on women increase.
• Latest Updates: Ukraine Ambassador Nominee Vows to Help Thwart Russia’s Efforts.
• The 477 Price Checkers Who Determine Inflation.
• Shanghai’s Lockdown Leaves Thousands Sleeping in Its Streets.
• Some Covid Patients Relapse After Taking Paxlovid, Puzzling Doctors.

Fox News:     

• Leftists explode after Elon Musk says Twitter ban on Trump 'alienated large part of the country'.
• Pelosi may get unwanted house guests as SCOTUS protesters shift focus.

CNBC.com:

• Tesla production lags in Shanghai due to parts shortages, Covid restrictions.
• Peloton CEO says he was surprised by how deep some issues ran at the company.
• Roblox shares sink on disappointing revenue and wider-than-expected loss.
• Fed’s Waller promises to tackle inflation, says mistakes of the ’70s won’t be repeated. 

MarketWatch:      

• Coinbase stock slides toward all-time low as crypto trading falls off.  
• Investors haven’t begun to price in recession: Here’s how far the S&P 500 could fall.  
• Unity Software's stock plunges 38% on weak revenue guidance.  
• These charts warn the Dow’s new lower low won’t be the lowest.  
• American household debt continues to march higher, driven by one major factor, New York Fed says.

Zero Hedge:

• New DOJ Notes Reveal FBI Panic After Trump Tweeted He Knew He Was Being Spied On.
• Actual Insurrection: Chicago Mayor Urges 'Call To Arms' Over Supreme Court.
• Russian Forces Unlikely To Stop After Capturing Donbas - Expect Prolonged War: Top US Intel Chief.
• Taco Bell Goes Woke: Launches 'Drag Brunch' Events At US Locations.
• The Six Most Common Financial Myths People Believe.
• Ransomware Attack Drives US College To Close Doors For Good After 157 Years.
• Gavin Newsom Is Blaming Climate Change For The Blackouts He Is Creating.
• Unchanged...
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Mixed trade on Wall Street ahead of US CPI.
• How Governments Expropriate Wealth With Inflation And Taxes.
• Nonprofit Watchdog Uncovers $350 Million In Secret Payments To Fauci, Collins, Others At NIH.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Tech and bonds firmer amid ambiguous Fed Speak and calls for a market reprieve.
• Naomi Wolf Is Angry... "It's Not Over. It's Just Begun".
• Hispanic Voters Are Losing Faith In The Democratic Party: Poll.
• WTI Holds Below $100 After API Signals Crude/Product Inventory Builds.
• FedSpeak Saves Stocks Ahead Of CPI Scare, Bond Yields Tumble.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Psaki Says Biden White House Continues to Encourage ‘Peaceful’ Protests Outside of SCOTUS Judges’ Homes (VIDEO).
• PURE EVIL: Biden DOJ Is Threatening Jan. 6 Defendants With Life in Prison after Walking Inside US Capitol and Taking Pictures.
• 26-Year-Old Transgender Child Molester Given Light Sentence Thanks to Marxist DA George Gascón Now Charged with First-Degree Murder.
• New Mexico Audit Identifies Feature in Dominion Voting Machines that Allows Ballots to be Filled Out by Machine Itself.
• So Who Did Democrat Non-Profits Use as Their Ballot Traffickers to Steal the Election? In Georgia and Wisconsin Many Traffickers Were Also BLM-Antifa Rioters.
• Vaxxed and Boosted Bill Gates Tests Positive for COVID, Previously Claimed COVID Vaccines Would Stop Transmission.
• Horror: Atrium Health Levine Children’s Hospital to Launch Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine Trial for Young Children Ages 6 Months to 5 Years.
• Joe Biden Asked If He Will Resign Over Record Inflation Rate: “Resign. That’s a Good Idea” (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Accidentally Admits Democrats Have “No Plan” to Reduce Energy Prices (VIDEO).
• Insane Clown and Disinformation Czar Nina Jankowicz Wants “Trustworthy People” Like Herself to be Able to Add Context to Other People’s Tweets..
• Gas Prices Reach a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH Under Joe Biden at $4.37 per Gallon — Second All-Time High in Two Months!

The Epoch Times:

• China’s ‘Zero-COVID’ Controls Prompt EU Firms to Consider Moving Investments Elsewhere.
• US Needs to Decouple From China to Counter Its Unrestricted Warfare: Robert Spalding.

Twitter: 

• @kylenabecker - The Covid pandemic cannot end in America without any public health experts being held accountable for fraud. It has been the greatest disinformation campaign in U.S. history. There should be a tribunal followed by people going to prison. Bill Maher’s ‘Finally Had Enough’ of the Covid BS: The Experts Were ‘Just Wrong, Wrong A Lot’. Vaccines don't help others 'stay safe.' This is verifiably false. In fact, the most vaccinated places in America currently have the highest Covid case rates. Enough. "[The] positive correlation between mask usage and deaths... suggests that the universal use of masks may have had harmful unintended consequences." New peer-reviewed journal article shows high mask compliance areas had higher case rates.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 813,020 Reports(+2,850 from prior week) Through April 29th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.25 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  85.0 -2.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.7 -.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,843.0 +35.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.9 -.19%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.51%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DNUT)/.07
• (WEBR)/.19
• (WEN)/.18
• (WWW)/.39
• (YETI)/.32
  

After the Close:

• (DOX)/1.24
• (BYND)/-.98
• (COHR)/2.32
• (PAAS)/.21
• (RIVN)/-1.66
• (DIS)/1.19
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.2% gain in March.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in March.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -760,500 barrels versus a +1,303,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -1,521,220 barrels versus a -2,230,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,465,220 barrels versus a -2,344,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.48% versus a -1.9% decline prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated at $260.0B versus -$225.6B in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China CPI report, 10Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Bargain-Hunting, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 33.1 -4.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,801.0 +35.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.46 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.7 -.24%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.9 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.06 -15.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 -31.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.94 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 419.53 +.77%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.52 -1.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.22 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 297.28 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.99 -.22%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,794.51 -1.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 52.25 basis points -7.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  120.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.35 -.59%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.75 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .88% +8.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 36.0 (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.85 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.5 -1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.1 +3.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.5 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.66 -8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 156 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak na/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.3%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +43 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -111 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.5% 2) Retail -3.4% 3) Gambling -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LEU, MDB, SNDX, LAD, TRUP, NVAX, EVA, INBX, ABNB, OM, NET, PLD, MSGE, KRC, GMRE, ROST, NET, PRAA, SSYS, BILL, GH, TDOC, MAX, JXN, CELH, ALGM, BURL, XRAY, PCOR, VVV, RILY, MO, RBLX, TTD, CVNA, OLPX, SIBN, OVV, BHF, ICUI, GTLB, U, LMND, GRPN, AZEK, COIN, TASK, PTON, VGR, EPC, BALY, WRBY, AFRM, VECO, KNBE, EYE, PEGA, CARG and UPST
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) AVYA 3) EA 4) KSS 5) K
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UPST 2) GDRX 3) PEGA 4) RGS 5) LDI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +1.8% 2) Semis +1.1% 3) Shipping +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BHVN, APPN, AHCO, ITCI, SWAV, SGEN, ARVN, DRE, EVRI, SYY, BLFS, NBIX, LPG and HGV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RNG 2) SABR 3) UA 4) D 5) STWD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VRRM 2) FWRG 3) EBET 4) ATNX 5) MBUU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +18.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 55.2% of Issues Advancing, 41.5% Declining
• 4 New 52-Week Highs, 373 New Lows
• 29.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,752.0 -12.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,072 +.27%
  
• Vix 33.7 -3.1%
• Total Put/Call .91 -27.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.33 -17.9%