Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 79.7% of Issues Advancing, 16.6% Declining
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 15.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,160.0 +218.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,516.0 -.23%
  
• Vix 24.6 -7.0%
• Total Put/Call .97 +4.3%
• TRIN/Arms .98   -43.3%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                 

• Central Banks Rush to Quell Inflation Crisis They Helped Create.
• China’s Credit Market Is Plunging Into a New Phase of Distress.  
• EU Cuts Euro-Area GDP Forecast, Sees 7.6% Inflation, Draft Shows.
• Singapore Surprises With Tighter Policy to Fight Inflation.
• Singapore Barely Avoids Slump as Growth Stays Flat in 2Q.
• US Futures Fall Amid Hawkish Post-CPI Fed Comments: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Drops as Surging Inflation Escalates Slowdown Concerns.  
• Euro Drops to Dollar Parity for First Time in Two Decades.
• Inflation Scorcher Opens Path for Fed to Weigh 100-Basis-Point Hike.
• Rents in US Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1986, Buoying Inflation.
• Emergency Housing Vouchers for People at Risk Are Going Fast.
• Housing Costs Drive More People to Move Back In With Their Parents.  
• SALT’s Absence in Manchin, Schumer Talks Signals New Hurdles.  
• Millennium’s East53 Capital Closing After Twitter, Citrix Bets.  
• How Three Arrows Capital Blew Up and Set Off a Crypto Contagion.
• Hiking Rates Early Won’t Mean Catching a Break Later.

Wall Street Journal:     

• Inflation Hits 9.1% as Prices Rise Broadly Across Economy.
• Gasoline costs lead biggest rise in CPI since November 1981.
• Build Your Own Basket to Track Inflation.
• These Price Increases Hurt the Most in June.
• Beware Wishful Thinking About Inflation and Recession.
• Heard on the Street: Inflation May Have Peaked, but Fed Won’t Back Off.
• Economy Slows in Parts of U.S.
• The Inflation Tax on Workers. Average real weekly earnings are down 4.4% in the last 12 months.
• Berkshire Hathaway Adds to Big Oil Bet.
• Sri Lanka’s Debt Crisis Tests China’s Role as Financier to Poor Countries.
• In Uvalde, Leaked Video Spurs Anger, Debate.

Fox News:

• OPINION: Jill Biden's 'breakfast tacos' remark was not a gaffe. It was intentional and will drive Latinos to the GOP.
• Biden takes apparent swipe at ‘Squad’ members over controversial Israel label.
• Biden adds another embarrassing gaffe to his record during Israel speech about the Holocaust.
• Climate activists targeting certain type of car as they slash tires across America.

CNBC.com:

• Embattled crypto lender Celsius informs state regulators that it’s filing for bankruptcy ‘imminently,’ source says.
• Netflix partners with Microsoft on ad-supported subscription plan.
• Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as consumer pressures intensify.
• Tesla AI leader Andrej Karpathy announces he’s leaving the company.
• Apparel prices remain high even as retailers use markdowns to clear excess inventory.
• Americans are paying record-high prices for new vehicles. 
  

MarketWatch:              

• Avoid these food items the next time you go shopping if you want to cut your grocery bill.
  
• ‘They’ve owned these pets for years’: People are giving up family dogs they adopted long before the pandemic, mostly due to inflation, shelters say.
• The biggest monthly rent increase in 36 years is adding fuel to the inflation fire.  
• Here’s one curveball that makes June’s 41-year-high inflation data a lot worse.  
• Chip prices are plunging. What it means for Nvidia, Intel and AMD stock.  
• Fed funds futures traders now see a 67% chance of full percentage point Fed rate hike on July 27 after June CPI data.

Zero Hedge:

• They "Should Never Know Peace Again": Harvard Instructor Calls For People To "Accost" Justices In Public.
• Soaring CPI Sparks Fed 'Policy Error' Panic Across Markets.
• Amazon Ring Video Handed To Police Without Users Consent Sparks "Surveillance Crisis Of Accountability".
• Putin Using Western Wokeness As Weapon: WSJ Op-Ed. 
• Wisconsin Elections Commission Fails To Release Guidance For Clerks After Supreme Court Rules Ballot Drop Boxes Illegal.
• Euro Parity: Barriers And Psychology.
• Leaked Data Suggest Daily Average Of 441 Unaccompanied Children At Border This Year.
• India Rejects US, EU Calls To Boycott Russian Oil.
• Women Now Make Up The Largest Group Of New Gun Owners.
• US Warns China It Will Defend Philippines In The South China Sea.
• Nationwide HVAC Part Shortage Leaves Homeowners Without AC In Heatwave.
• US hot CPI print spurs market pricing for a 100bps Fed hike in July - Newsquawk.
• California's Energy War On The Poor.
• "Watch For The Tipping Point": Bank Earnings To Give Key Insight Into Slowing Economy.
• China Fumes After Military 'Drove' Away US Warship Near Claimed Paracel Islands.
• Market pricing leans towards 100bp Fed hike in wake of hot CPI and hawkish BoC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• LeBron James 'Clarifies' Anti-American Comments.
• Wall Street Reacts To Today's Shocking CPI Print.

Newsmax:

• YouGov Poll: Record Low 18 Percent Support Biden Running Again.
• Ukraine Rules Out Ceding Territory to Russia to Secure Peace.
  
• Rep. Reschenthaler: Jill Biden's 'Taco' Flub Betrays Dems' Bias.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Liberal World Order: Biden Economic Advisor Brian Deese After Inflation Explodes to 9.1%: “More Urgency Than Ever to Pass” New Spending Bills (VIDEO).
• FDA Authorizes Emergency Use of Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine for 18 Years of Age and Older Despite Prior Reports of Myocarditis.
• NAKED AND AFRAID: Buck Naked and Cracked Out Hunter Biden Rides the Water Slide to His Prostitute’s Delight (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: PRO-CLINTON Super PAC To Spend MILLIONS In The Final Four Weeks Of The Arizona Republican Primary for Governor AGAINST Trump-Endorsed Kari Lake.
• Biden Absurdly Claims Trump Admin “Walked Away” From the Middle East on Foreign Policy in Interview with Israeli Outlet (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Destroys MSNBC and Hunter Biden in Two Quick Tweets.
• BREAKING: Suspected Rapist Accused of Impregnating 10-Year-Old Child Rape Victim in Ohio Arrested – Rapist Believed to be ILLEGAL ALIEN.
• US Workers Have Lost $3,400 In Annual Wages Due To Biden’s Inflation – “Crushing The Middle Class”.
• Fauci Says COVID-19 Vaccines Don’t Protect Against Infection “Overly Well” — Admits It Didn’t Protect Him From Infection (VIDEO).
• Here’s Your Chance To Weigh In On Biden’s Woke Title IX Revision Allowing Boys Into Girls’ Bathrooms.

 The Epoch Times:   

• China’s Banking System Is Short on Cash: Gordon Chang.
• TikTok Poses Threat to Every American User: FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr.

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 839,297 Reports(+2,106 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 163.25 +12.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 85.0 +2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.57 -.1%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,900.0 +52.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.3 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%.

• S&P 500 futures -.46%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.53%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CTAS)/2.68
• (CAG)/.63
• (ERIC)/1.68
• (JPM)/2.91
• (MS)/1.61
• (TSM)/8.50
  

After the Close:

• (AOUT)/.10
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• PPI Final Demand MoM for June is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.8% gain in May.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in May.
• PPI Final Demand YoY for June is estimated to rise to +10.7% versus a +10.8% gain in May.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 235K versus 235K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 1380K versus 1375K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (GOOG) 20-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Unemployment rate and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Inflation Peaking Hopes, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.7 -2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.23% +44.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,898.0 -77.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.18 +.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 -.88%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.6 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +7.3%

• NYSE Arms .70 -40.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 93.46 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 524.18 +.20%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 529.0 +49.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 132.44 +1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 161.12 +2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 379.49 +2.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.1 -1.11%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14,516.80 +11.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 22.25 basis points -6.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 unch.
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.05 +.03%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 -3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.65 +.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.35% +21.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -23.25 basis points (2s/10s) -14.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.2 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.4 +2.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.4 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 67.5%(+65.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 56.7%(+40.7 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 261 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.2%(+.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +77 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.7% 2) Banks -1.1% 3) I-Banks -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GWW, ASAN, FRSH, RBLX, CHEF, AAL, ILMN, ODFL, ZM, CVNA, UPST, PLRX, DAL, AEL, PLRX, CDLX, SAIA, AFRM, CVLT and U
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FAST 2) GPS 3) BLNK 4) EWG 5) DAL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HGEN 2) ATRA 3) SWIM 4) FAST 5) DAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.9% 2) Shipping +1.4% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VERV, TH, RLMD and HASI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) EWG 3) SFIX 4) GPS 5) CAG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OLB 2) RYTM 3) GOSS 4) SFIX 5) WYY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 41.9% of Issues Advancing, 53.2% Declining
• 0 New 52-Week Highs, 168 New Lows
• 17.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,879.0 -98.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,404.0 +.56%
  
• Vix 26.9 -1.5%
• Total Put/Call .93 -3.1%
• TRIN/Arms .53 -54.7%