Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +1.1% 2) Energy +.8% 3) Steel +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALBO, SAVA, RUM, VIRT and LLY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RLMD 2) NILE 3) ICPT 4) BHC 5) IRM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPRO 2) USEA 3) LI 4) VIRT 5) LLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 15.7% of Issues Advancing, 80.5% Declining
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 520 New Lows
• 21.8%(-6.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 32.0 -7.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 45.6 +2.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,418.80 -.25%
  
• Vix 27.9 -.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.19 +14.4%
• TRIN/Arms .55 -78.5% 

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Goldman Slashes China’s 2023 Growth Forecast.
• Wall Street CEOs Grilled on China, Russia Ties by US Lawmakers.  
• Hong Kong Lifts Benchmark Rate for Fifth Time After Fed Action.  
• Fed Rate Hikes Paint Bleak Picture for Southeast Asia Currencies.  
• After Fed Hike, Analysts Say US Dollar ‘Only Game in Town’
• South Korean Won Weakens Past 1,400 for First Time Since 2009.
• Singapore’s Rising Costs of Running a Business Outpace Hong Kong.
• Stocks Extend Drop on Fed Vow to Crush Inflation: Markets Wrap.
• Powell Signals Recession May Be Price to Pay for Crushing Inflation. 
• Powell Warns of Correction in Once ‘Red-Hot’ Housing Market.  
• Crypto Shakeout Engulfs the C-Suite as CEOs Start Stepping Down.  
• “Dr. Doom” Roubini Expects a ‘Long, Ugly’ Recession and Stocks Sinking 40%.
• Stock Bulls Reluctantly Fold on the Fed’s Grim Economic Message.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Fed’s March Upward. The FOMC raises its terminal target rate forecast again—to 4.6%.
• Increase of 0.75 point is third straight in bid to tamp down inflation.
• How Rate Increases Will Hit Americans’ Monthly Budgets.
• Heard on the Street: Powell Doesn’t Have to Go Full Volcker for Stocks to Drop.
• Meta Quietly Reduces Staff in Cost-Cutting Push.
• Putin, Under Pressure Over Ukraine War, Turns to Familiar Escalation Playbook.
• High Energy Prices in Europe Push Manufacturers to Shift to the U.S.
• Home Sales Fall for Seventh Straight Month.
• Wall Street CEOs Uncertain Fed Can Achieve Soft Landing.

Fox News: 

• Bill Barr tears into New York AG's lawsuit against former president: ‘Trump derangement syndrome’.

CNBC.com:

• Fed raises rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, pledges more hikes to fight inflation.
• 2-year Treasury yield surges above 4.1% after Fed hike, highest level since 2007.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: H.B. Fuller, KB Home, Lennar and more.
• Mortgage rates will likely rise after Fed action, but experts say housing prices could soon drop. 
  

MarketWatch:          

• Ray Dalio says stocks, bonds have further to fall, sees U.S. recession arriving in 2023 or 2024.
  
• $8 a gallon gas? Brace for higher oil prices as Russia escalates Ukraine conflict, RBC energy guru says.
  
• Carl Icahn to investors: ‘The worst is yet to come’.  
• Steve Case of AOL sees parallels to dot-com era in today’s challenging tech climate.

Zero Hedge:

• Putin & Powell Pummel Markets; Gold Jumps, Yield-Curve Inversion Nears Volcker Lows.
• Vanderbilt Pediatric Transgender Clinic Nukes Website After Matt Walsh Exposes 'Big Money Maker' Motive.
• I Told You So: Aramco CEO Slams Unrealistic Energy Policies.
• "Powell Would Throw Millions Of Americans Out Of Work": Liz Warren Slams Powell, As Dems Launch Scapegoat Campaign.
• Man Accused Of Murdering 18-Year-Old Conservative Released On Bail.
• Oil And Gas Jobs Are Bouncing Back In The Lone Star State.
• Most Adults Should Be Screened For Anxiety, Depression According To US-Funded Panel.
• Polls: Americans Oppose Increasing Ukraine Aid, Defending Global Democracy.
• "Have U Been F**ked": Washington Monument Vandalized.
• US stocks declined after the FOMC hiked rates and raised dot plot projections - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Nobody Has Traded 10Y Japanese Govt Bonds For 2 Days!
• House Democrats Take Ownership Of Hunter: Committee Votes Down Inquiry Into Influence Peddling.
• Russia Restricts Travel For Young Men, Flights Abroad Sell Out, After 'Partial' Mobilization.
• If It's Over, Why The Continued Emergency?
• Stocks sold, Dollar bid, Curve flattens after 75bps hike & hawkish dots - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Fed Hikes Rates Another 75bps, Sends Hawkish 'Higher For Longer' Signal With DotPlot.

Newsmax:  

• Dr. Oz: Fetterman 'Most Pro-murderer Candidate in America'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• House Passes Legislation Changing Electoral Vote Counting Process For Presidential Elections – Here Are the 9 Republicans Who Voted with Democrats
• SHOCKER: Radical Anti-American Groups that Sued Ron DeSantis Received $1.4 Million from Soros’ Open Society Network.
• BREAKING: Fulton County, Pennsylvania Sues Dominion Voting.
• Mike Lindell Is Suing FBI, DOJ For Violating His Constitutional Rights — Merrick Garland And Chris Wray Are Defendants.
• Coalition of 24 State Attorneys General Send Letter to Credit Card Companies for Violation of Second Amendment Rights.
• Trump-Appointed Judge Strikes Down Federal School Mask and Vaccine Mandate.
• Putin Warns West – His Nuclear Threat “Is Not a Bluff” (VIDEO).
• NY AG Letitia James Lawsuit Seeks to Make Trump Pay $250 Million, Ban Trumps From Running NY Businesses, Buying Real Estate – Makes Criminal Referral to DOJ.
• 41-Year-Old Shannon Brandt RELEASED on Bond After Killing 18-Year-Old Cayler Ellingson Over Teen’s Conservative Views.
  

The Epoch Times:

• NBA Free Agent Enes Kanter Freedom Calls China ‘A Real Threat to the World’.
• Exposing the Communist Forces, Including China, Behind US Election Integrity Issues: Trevor Loudon | Facts Matter.
• China Weaponizes Fentanyl Issue Against America: Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 865,585 Reports(+1,922 from prior week) Through September 7th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.75 +10.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 91.5 +6.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.88 -.13%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 44.9 +.9%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.67 +3.0 basis points
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.7 +1.6%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.90%.

• S&P 500 futures -.74%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.90%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACN)/2.58
• (DRI)/1.56
• (FDS)/3.21

After the Close:

• (AIR)/.59
• (CAMP)/-.04
• (COST)/4.17
• (FDX)/2.80
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 2Q Current Account Balance is estimated at -$260.0B versus -$291.4B in 1Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 217K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1418K versus 1403K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.4% decline in July.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus 3.0 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The EU Consumer Confidence report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference and the (COLM) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished "Fed Behind the Curve" Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Gold & Silver Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.5 -2.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.98%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.0 -.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.36 -.85%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 +.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.2 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +6.2%

• NYSE Arms .86 -46.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.94 -.47%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.37 -.58%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 348.0 +16.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 133.77 +1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 224.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.26 +4.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 282.61 -1.59%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.64 -.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 40.25 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 27.0 basis points -5.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  147.0 -8.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 46.49 -.13%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .68 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.91 -.50%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.25% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -51.25 basis points (2s/10s) -11.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 182.90 euros/megawatt-hour -5.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.1 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.30 +.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .3 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.63 +.50:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 16.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.70 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.31% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.68% unch.: CPI YoY +8.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 78.5%(+18.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 76.4%(+32.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 112 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.4%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.9%(+0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +57 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -2.3% 2) Airlines -1.6% 3) Social Media -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• STAR, MAR, CC, EXPE, TRIP, RCL, SAVA, AMCX, SBOW, LVS, BOWL, BAND, GOSS, AA, IRTC, ALLO, DSGN and ICPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IYT 2) SFIX 3) MGM 4) LEN 5) KWEB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SHC 2) TCOM 3) CMCM 4) OPEN 5) RCOR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.8% 2) Semis +1.6% 3) Defense +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GIS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GIS 2) ADM 3) RRC 4) ICPT 5) COTY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FREY 2) GIS 3) COTY 4) STSA 5) ELF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume