Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished "Fed Behind the Curve" Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Gold & Silver Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.5 -2.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.98%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.0 -.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.36 -.85%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 +.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.2 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +6.2%

• NYSE Arms .86 -46.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.94 -.47%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.37 -.58%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 348.0 +16.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 133.77 +1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 224.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.26 +4.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 282.61 -1.59%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.64 -.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 40.25 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 27.0 basis points -5.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  147.0 -8.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 46.49 -.13%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .68 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.91 -.50%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.25% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -51.25 basis points (2s/10s) -11.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 182.90 euros/megawatt-hour -5.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.1 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.30 +.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .3 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.63 +.50:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 16.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.70 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.31% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.68% unch.: CPI YoY +8.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 78.5%(+18.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 76.4%(+32.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 112 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.4%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.9%(+0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +57 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long