Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• Truss’s ‘Fairy Tale’ Economics Plunge UK Into a Market Nightmare.   
• Yuan at the Mercy of Overseas Traders Puts China on Alert.  
• Here’s Why China’s Yuan Hit Record Lows Against the Dollar.
• Asian Stocks Set to Fall as Global Selloff Deepens: Markets Wrap.  
• Ian Photos: Flooded Homes, Washed-Out Roads, Broken Power Poles.
• Meta to Cut Headcount for First Time, Slash Budgets Across Teams.
• Peloton, Calm and LinkedIn Add to Growing List of Tech Layoffs.
• Lyft to Freeze Hiring Through Year-End on Economic Uncertainty.    
• Powell Ducks Elizabeth Warren’s Request for Fed Officials’ Trading Records
• CarMax’s Huge Earnings Miss Points to Trouble Ahead for New-Car Market.  
• Nike Falls Amid Eroding Profitability, Inventory Buildup.  
• Top Apple Executive Is Leaving After Making Crude Remarks in TikTok Video.  
• Jay Powell Needs Investors to Lose Money.   
• Banks Dealt Fresh Blow With Collapse of Brightspeed Debt Sale.
• BlackRock Plans Another Crypto ETF After Weak Debut of Its First One.

Wall Street Journal:

• S&P 500 Sets Another Yearly Low.
• Investors Fear Bond-Market Turmoil Entering New Phase.
• Pension Strategy Left Funds Vulnerable to Rate Increases.
• The Silent Price You’ll Pay for Our Mounting National Debt. The cost of borrowing is near untenable levels. If we aren’t already in a ‘doom loop,’ we’re getting close. 
• The First Central Bank Casualty. Britain’s financial turmoil is part of the inevitable monetary correction after central banks let inflation loose. 
• You Can’t Eat Without Natural Gas. The U.S. has the world’s largest proven reserves, but a lack of infrastructure is hindering production. 
• Amylyx’s ALS Drug Approved by FDA.
• Why Are Companies Still Hiring When GDP Is Shrinking?

Fox News:

• Officials issue dire warning about unintended consequence to millions hammered by Hurricane Ian.
• Aerial video shows serious flooding from Hurricane Ian.
• Ian before and after: Videos show Florida devastation in Fort Myers, Sanibel Island.
• Bill Clinton breaks from Dems on illegal immigrant debate.

CNBC.com:

• In a reversal, the Education Department is now excluding some borrowers from student loan relief.
• Apple downgrade sparks tech sell-off, sending Alphabet and Microsoft to one-year lows
• Nike shares fall 10% as overstocked inventory weighs on earnings.
• These 5 expenses are contributing the most to credit card debt this year, survey finds. 
  

MarketWatch:         

• Apple stock may not be a ‘safe haven’ for much longer, Bank of America warns in downgrade. 
• Micron cuts capital spending to stem oversupply cycle; shares flat after hours.
  
• Mortgage rates march toward 7%, reaching highest level since 2007.
  
• Most economists see the U.S. turning into a buyer’s housing market in 2023. Here’s where you’ll see the biggest declines in value.

Zero Hedge:

• The Crash Just Won't Stop But Today Something Changed.
• 'Looks Like Atom Bomb Dropped': Hurricane Ian Levels Neighborhoods In Southwest Florida.
• Elizabeth Warren Turns Attention From Crumbling Economy To Pending Vacuum Cleaner Company Acquisition.
• Minnesota Counties Sued For Duplicate Voter Registrations.
• What Happens When A Fact-Checker Doesn't Get The Facts Right?
• Mackenzie Scott Files For Divorce From Former Science Teacher.
• Al Gore & John Kerry Aim To Hijack The World Bank For Climate Agenda.
• "Historic Levels Of Fraud": US Watchdog Estimates $45.6 Billion Bilked From Pandemic Unemployment Program.
• US stocks declined as global inflationary headwinds persisted - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Surprise! Democrats Stall Bill Banning Congressional Stock-Trading.
• Everybody has a plan until...
• Memory Holed: "The Election Was Hacked".
• Despite Horrific Guidance And Recession Warnings, Micron Rises Thanks To Aggressive Capex Cuts.
• Stocks & Dollar tumble into month-end while German CPI ignites EZ inflation fears - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Germany Believes High Explosive Devices Equivalent To "500 Kilograms Of TNT" Used To Destroy Nord Stream.
• The Can Has Reached The End Of The Road.
• "We're Horrified": Major Brands Pull Twitter Ad Campaigns Over Child Porn.
• Next Blowup Shows The Sheer Pain In UK Backdrop.

Newsmax: 

• Flooding Strands Florida Residents as Strengthening Ian Steams Toward Carolinas.  
• Sen. Cruz: Senate Should Put AG Garland, FBI on Trial.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “Globalists Are Marching Us Relentlessly Toward This Nuclear Armageddon” – EXCLUSIVE with Retired Colonel and Former Virginia State Senator Richard Black.
• FBI Purging Conservative Employees and Retaliating Against Whistleblowers.
• Criminals Disable Entire Fleet Of School Buses By Stealing All The Catalytic Converters (VIDEO).
• “Every Policy that They Articulate, Every Policy that They Pursue, Is Against the Interest of the Nation” – The Great Lou Dobbs on the Biden Gang.
• Advertisers Leaving Twitter Over Their Ads Appearing Next to Child Pornography.
• JUST IN: Senate Passes Stopgap Bill to Avert Government Shutdown – Funding Bill Includes $12.3 Billion for Ukraine.
• Michigan Election Worker Charged for Inserting Thumb Drive into Voting Machine During August Primary (VIDEO).
• First Openly Trans US Army Officer and Wife Arrested in Plot to Give Medical Records to Russia.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China Investing in Military Capabilities to Topple US Defenses: Air Force Secretary.
• US Ignorant of Chinese Intelligence Threat: China Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 867,627 Reports(+2,042 from prior week) Through September 16th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 187.75 +11.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 113.25 +9.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.28 +.04%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.3 +1.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.29 +1.0 basis point
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.90 -.14%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCL)/-.15

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• Personal Spending for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in July.
• The PCE Core MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in July.
• The PCE Core YoY for Aug. is estimated to rise +4.7% versus a +4.6% gain in July.
  

9:45 am EST

• MNI Chicago PMI for Sept. is estimated to fall to 51.8 versus 52.2 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, China Manufacturing/Services PMI report and the government funding deadline could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the day.