Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• The World’s Hottest Housing Markets Are Facing a Painful Reset.  
• Even $1.2 Trillion of Reserves Isn't Enough to Scare Yen Bears.
• Ukrainian Successes Raise Russian Collapse to Realm of Possibility.
• Hedge Fund’s Decade-Long Wait for China Yuan Crash Nears Payday.
• Asia to Extend Risk-On Rally Into US CPI Report: Markets Wrap.  
• Dirty-Oil Hoarding for Winter Begins in Asia as Gas Woes Deepen.
• Rail-Strike Threat Squeezes Biden Between Unions, Economic Peril.
  
• Amtrak Cancels Some Long-Haul Trains on Threat of Freight Strike.
• US Inflation Data Will Determine If Stock Rally Continues.
• If You Want to Know Where US Inflation Is Heading, Look at Rents.   
• 'We'd Rather Have Raises': New York Times' Lunchbox Perk Backfires Amid Work-From-Home Protest.  
• Credit Calculus Turns Against Stocks With Yield Edge Over Bonds Vanishing.  
• Stock Options Tape Littered With Bullish Bets as FOMO Grips Big Money.

Wall Street Journal:

• Instagram Stumbles in Push to Mimic TikTok, Internal Documents Show.
• Twitter Shareholders Poised to Approve Musk Takeover Deal.
• Thousands of Minnesota Nurses Go on Strike Over Retention, Staffing, Pay.
• Sliding Earnings Estimates Pose Next Test for Markets.
• Russia Withdraws More Forces From Northeast Ukraine.
• Freight Railroads Propose Limiting Sensitive Cargo as Strike Threat Looms.
• China’s Coal Power Boom. Beijing is building more coal-fired capacity than the rest of the world combined, U.S. climate lectures notwithstanding.

Fox News:

• FIRST ON FOX:Emails expose close ties between top Biden adviser and Chinese Communist Party official.
  
• Hunter Biden said he would be 'happy' to introduce business associates to top CCP official.

CNBC.com:

• Goldman Sachs to kick off Wall Street layoff season with hundreds of job cuts this month.
• Amazon’s workplace safety chief to leave next month, internal memo says.
• Peloton co-founders John Foley and Hisao Kushi are leaving the company in a broad executive shakeup.
• Goldman’s Apple Card business has a surprising subprime problem.
• Holiday airfare will be most expensive in 5 years as pandemic fears wane.

MarketWatch:        

• Stock-market wild card: What investors need to know as Fed shrinks balance sheet at faster pace.
  
• Is metaverse pioneer Roblox ready for fierce competition? This analyst doesn’t think so.
  
• Oracle misses on earnings results and forecast as strong dollar takes a toll.

Zero Hedge:

• Large-Scale Fighting Breaks Out Between Armenia & Azerbaijan.
• Ukraine's Zelensky Takes Swipe At Trump.
• Alarm Bells Sound As World's Second Largest Appliance Company Reports Demand Plunge. 
• Biden Immigration Boss Apologizes After CBP 'Retweets' Ex-Trump Adviser Stephen Miller.
• GOP Leader Says Homes Of Trump Supporters May Soon Be Raided By FBI.
• San Francisco Is On The Verge Of An Economic Reckoning.
• "It's Very Big Size" - FOMO Sparks Big Bullish, Levered Bets Ahead Of CPI.
• Economy Flights Not Safe For Black Women, Says New Orleans Mayor.
• Peloton Co-Founders Leave Company In Latest Management Shake-Up.
• Three More Unions Reach Tentative Agreements With Freight Railroads.
• US stocks sustained the global risk-on tone, while the dollar dipped ahead of US CPI data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Typhoon Barrels Towards Asia's Largest Container Port.
• A World On Fire.
• Baby bounce looking to become a teen squeeze....
• Biden Admin Has Issued The Fewest Oil And Gas Leases Since The 1940s.
• Risk on sees stocks, commodities, and high-beta FX gain but bonds dip after poor auctions ahead of CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stock Squeeze Continues As Bonds & The Dollar Dump Ahead Of CPI.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• REBOUND: Brian Stelter Gets Harvard Gig after He’s Sacked from CNN.
• Biden DOJ Seizes Phones of Two Top Trump Advisors – 40 Subpoenas Issued in Ongoing Harassment Campaign.
• BREAKING: Weak Democrat Katie Hobbs Releases Statement Declining Debate Against Kari Lake, Requests Separate Interviews AGAIN.
• Waukesha Christmas Parade Killer Withdraws Insanity Plea.
• “Ethically Unjustifiable” – Scientists Say.
• California Middle School Student Brings Fentanyl to Campus, Staff Member Who Searched Him Overdosed From Exposure.
• Ex-FDNY Captain Delivers a Powerful and Fiery Speech Against COVID Mandates at NYC Council Meeting (MUST WATCH).
• PA Democrat John Fetterman a Total Mess at Abortion Rally, Introduces Himself as “John Fetterwoman” (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:

• EXCLUSIVE: 40 Percent of Americans Believe CCP Considers Itself at War With US: Poll.
• Russia Claims China Supports Invasion of Ukraine Ahead of Xi-Putin Meeting.

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 863,663 Reports(+2,426 from prior week) Through September 2nd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.75 -3.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 67.0 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.9 +.07%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.3 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.22 unch.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.3 -.4%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to 90.8 versus 89.9 in July.
  

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for August is estimated to fall -.1% versus unch. in July.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in July.
• The CPI YoY for August is estimated to rise +8.0% versus an +8.5% gain in July.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for August.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for August is estimated at -$216.0B versus -$211.1B in July.

Upcoming Splits

• (PANW) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly retail sales reports, BofA Real Estate Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, (SBUX) investor day, RBC Industrials Conference, (TWTR) shareholder meeting, Piper Growth Frontiers Conference and the CSFB Specialties/Basics Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.