Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Medical/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.1 -6.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.12% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 41.9 -1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.17 +1.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.4 -3.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -13.2%

• NYSE Arms .89 +1.14%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.08 -4.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.62 +1.14%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 -9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.37 -2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.0 -1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 307.4 -4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.57 +.43%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 37.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points -4.25 basis pionts
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.25 +.23%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .72 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.49 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.0% +9.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -19.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 208.0 euros/megawatt-hour -13.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.7 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.9 +7.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -6.2 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.43 unch.:  Growth Rate +16.0% unch., P/E 16.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.40 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.36% -95.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 77.0%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 76.9%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 147 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.4%(-2.1 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -13/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.5%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +79 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long