Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, US Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.8 -3.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.12% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.8 +4.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.70 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 -.53%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.4 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -5.2%

• NYSE Arms .39 -35.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.93 -2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.2 -2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 366.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.69 -4.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.50 -4.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 288.45 -4.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.61 -.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.025 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  143.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.25 -.03%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.65 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.02% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -20.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 207.0 euros/megawatt-hour -6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.9 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.0 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.1 -1.5 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.45 +.03:  Growth Rate +15.8% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.1 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.27 +4.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.30% -6.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 80.8%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 70.4%(-13.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -78.5%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/medical/utility/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long